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GM, Ford, Honda winners in 'Car Wars' study as industry growth continues

General Motors' plans to aggressively refresh its product lineup will pay off in the next four years with strong market share and sales, according to an influential report released Tuesday. Ford, Honda, and FCA are all poised to show similar gains as the auto industry is expected to remain healthy through the rest of the decade. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch study, called Car Wars, analyzes automakers' future product plans for the next four model years. By 2020, 88 percent of GM's sales will come from newly launched products, which puts it slightly ahead of Ford's 86-percent estimate. Honda (85 percent) and FCA (84 percent) follow. The industry average is 81 percent. Toyota checks in just below the industry average at 79 percent, with Nissan trailing at 76 percent. Car Wars' premise is: automakers that continually launch new products are in a better position to grow sales and market share, while companies that roll out lightly updated models are vulnerable to shifting consumer tastes. Though Detroit and Honda grade out well in the study, many major automakers are clumped together, which means large market-share swings are less likely in the coming years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the industry will top out with 20 million sales in 2018 and then taper off, perhaps as much as 30 percent by 2026. Not surprisingly, trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers will be the key battlefield in the next few years, Car Wars says. FCA will launch a critical salvo in 2018 with a new Ram 1500, followed by new generations of the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra in 2019, and then Ford's F-150 for 2020, according to the study. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said the GM trucks could be pulled ahead even earlier to 2018, prompting Ford to respond. "This focus on crossovers and trucks is a great thing for the industry," Murphy said. Cars Wars looks at Korean (76 percent replacement rate) and European companies more vaguely (70 percent), but argues their slower product cadence and lineups with fewer trucks puts them in weaker positions than their competitors through 2020. Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Featured Gallery 2016 Chevrolet Silverado View 11 Photos Image Credit: Chevrolet Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota study FCA

US Congress lets $8,000 hydrogen vehicle tax credit expire

When Toyota introduced the 2016 Mirai last month in preparation for a launch late next year, it said that the hydrogen car will have a $57,500 MSRP and that there will be a federal tax credit available worth up to $8,000. The problem, as we noted at the time, is that that federal credit was set to expire at the end of 2014. The technical language of the current rule says that someone who buys a fuel cell vehicle, "may claim a credit for the certified amount for a fuel cell vehicle if it is placed in service by the taxpayer after Dec. 31, 2005, and is purchased on or before Dec. 31, 2014." With the 113th Congress now finished up for the year and legislators headed home for the holidays, we know one thing for certain: the federal tax credit for hydrogen vehicles was not updated and will end as we're all singing Auld Lang Syne next week. All of this isn't to say that Mirai buyers won't be able to take $8,000 off the price of the car 12 months from now. For proof of that, we only need to look at other alternative fuel tax incentives and realize that this Congress simply isn't moving fast enough to deal with things that are expiring right now. One of the last things that the 113th Congress did in December was to take up the tax credits that expired at the end of 2013 and renew some of them. Jay Friedland, Plug In America's senior policy advisor, told AutoblogGreen that PIA and other likeminded organizations worked with Congress to extended the electronic vehicle charging station (technically: EVSE) tax credit that was part of the Alternative Refueling Tax Credit in IRS Section 30(C) through the end of 2014. "Individuals can deduct 30 percent of the cost of purchasing and installing an EVSE up to $1,000; businesses, 30 percent up to $30,000," he said. "This tax credit is applied to any system placed into service by 12/31/14 and is retroactive to the beginning of the year. So go out and buy your favorite EV driver an EVSE for the holidays," he said. An electric motorcycle credit was killed at the last minute as Congress was getting ready to leave, but H.R. 5771 did extend the Alternative Fuels Excise Tax Credits for liquefied hydrogen and other alternative fuels. These sorts of tax credit battles happen all year long. In July, Blumenthal introduced the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Infrastructure Act of 2014, which never got out of the Finance Committee. Back to the hydrogen vehicle situation.

Japanese earthquakes send ripples through auto industry

The earthquakes since April 14 in Japan's Kumamoto Prefecture on the island of Kyushu are having aftershocks on the US auto industry, particularly for Toyota. The company shut down most of its factories in the country due to parts shortages, and the plants will be closed at least through April 23. "Decisions regarding recommencement of operation at plants in Japan will be made on the basis of availability of parts," the company said in a statement. According to Automotive News, Toyota's closed factories include a vast range of popular models in the US, including the Toyota Prius, Mirai, RAV4, 4Runner, Land Cruiser, Lexus ES, LS, IS, GS, RC, NX, RX, GX, and LX. The company's only sites in Japan that are still open build Hino trucks, Daihatsu models, and the Toyota Century limo. Toyota isn't yet sure whether these shutdowns could lead to vehicle shortages in the US. "As you can imagine, we are still reviewing the situation and working to learn more," company spokesperson Aaron Fowles told Autoblog. "While we know that production will be suspended in stages at most of our vehicle assembly facilities in Japan between April 18th and the 23rd, we do not know if they will continue production suspensions. Also, any effects to our inventory and/or sales have yet to be determined." He expects the automaker to know more in the coming days. Many of the affected Toyota plants aren't even in Kumamoto Prefecture, but major suppliers have factories in the region. For example, Aisin Seiki and Renesas Electronics both had to shutdown operations at plants in the area, according to Automotive News. Toyota isn't the only automaker affected. Nissan experienced a brief slowdown but was back to work on Monday, and Honda has suspended a motorcycle plant in the region until Friday. Mitsubishi had to close a production line due to the parts shortage, according to The Japan Times, but it didn't affect US models. "A supplier to our Mizushima plant has been impacted but they only supply an engine part for our mini car line. That line has been temporarily shut down due to that situation," spokesperson Alex Fedorak told Autoblog. "That same plant builds the Lancer and i-MiEv and there has been no impact to that line and production continues uninterrupted." Two major quakes hit Kumamoto Prefecture around Kumamoto city in the past week. The first on April 14 measured 6.4 magnitude, and a second on April 16 measured 7.3.