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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

China's largest dealer body pushes back against foreign automakers over huge inventories

Do not think for a second that automakers forcing inventory on dealers in order to pad the numbers is a ruse known only in the US. Stories of individual brands have hinted at the trouble Chinese dealerships are having trying to move units as the country's economic growth remains hot but comes off the boil, like the one revealing that 95 percent of Toyota-FAW showrooms are losing money. Yet Toyota isn't the only culprit, and the issue has become so dire that the China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA), the largest dealer body in the country, has written to the government to complain. Chinese car sales are expected to close out the year with an annualized growth of six-percent, down from last year's 14 percent when targets were set, while in the background the pace of overall economic expansion is the slowest its been since the early nineties. Automakers, shipping cars on schedule to make their earlier targets, have blown up inventories such that they are an average of 1.8 times monthly sales, when the preferred multiplier is from 0.9 to 1.2. According to the CADA, the price wars and necessary incentives mean that only 30 percent of dealers are operating in the black. That number is down a whopping forty percent since 2010. In response, Toyota has already said it will not make its 2014 target of 1.1 million cars sold. We're a long way from 2012, when Toyota planned on selling 1.8 million cars in China in 2015, a target that's now as realistic as a manticore. BMW, Honda and Nissan have erased numbers on their spreadsheets, too; BMW growth dropped from 20 percent to 8 percent midyear after it began "reducing wholesale supplies," and Honda has been reworking its plans as sales have decreased each of the past six months. It's a big deal for Chinese dealers to begin protesting publicly, the CADA saying, "In the past, dealers were angry, but dared not speak out. But now, they have to shout because the situation is getting so unbearable." With six-percent growth forecast for next year and dealers unwilling to remain underwater, The Year of the Sheep coming in 2015 could portend meaning beyond the zodiac. News Source: ReutersImage Credit: AP Photo/Andy Wong BMW Honda Nissan Toyota Car Buying Car Dealers

Toyota asking NHTSA for waiver on 206K vehicles

Toyota has filed a petition with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration asking for a waiver to avoid recalling about 206,271 2012-2014 Camry, Avalon, Corolla, Sienna, Tundra and Tacoma vehicles, some of its most popular models. The affected vehicles contain seat heaters that might not meet government flammability standards. Toyota says in the waiver that "the chance of fire or flame induced by a malfunctioning seat heater is essentially zero," according to The Detroit News. The automaker notes the part makes up less than one percent of the seat's weight.
Initial reports of the problem arose in late January when Toyota issued a stop-sale order for 2013 and 2014 model year versions of those vehicles. The automaker says that there have no been reports of fires or injuries in the affected cars, and the problem was discovered during testing by the South Korean government, according to The Detroit News.
We've reached out to Toyota for comment on this development and are awaiting a reply. We'll update this post if and when we hear back.