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Japanese automakers welcome North American trade deal, fear what's next

TOKYO — Toyota, Nissan and Mazda welcomed on Tuesday the revised North America trade deal that left Japanese automakers unscathed, but they may face a bumpy ride when Washington and Tokyo hold new talks on over $40 billion of annual U.S. auto imports from Japan. The United States and Canada reached an agreement on Sunday to update the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement after Washington had forged a separate trade deal with Mexico in August. The updated deal effectively maintains the auto industry's current footprint in North America, and spares Canada and Mexico from the prospect of U.S. national security tariffs on their vehicles. Mazda, which ships cars to the United States from Mexico and Japan, called the deal a "big step forward". Nissan, which makes the cars it sells in the United States locally as well as in Mexico, Japan and other countries, said it was "encouraged" by the agreement. Toyota, Japan's biggest automaker, said it was "pleased" that a basic deal was reached. Other automakers were not immediately available for comment. While the deal has removed the risk that the disintegration of the pact would have posed to automakers, bigger risks loom large for Japanese firms as a chunk of the roughly 7 million cars they sold in the U.S. last year were shipped from Japan, and a trade deal between Washington and Tokyo has yet to be agreed. The United States and Japan last week agreed to begin fresh trade talks, with U.S. President Donald Trump seeking to address Japan's $69 billion trade surplus, of which nearly two-thirds comes from auto exports. Washington is also investigating the possibility of slapping 25 percent tariffs on auto imports on national security grounds, although it has agreed with Japan to put any new tariffs on hold during the talks. Analysts say the United States may take a tougher stance on auto imports from Japan than from its neighbors. "If Japan requests an exemption from the 25 percent tariffs under consideration, Washington could propose a more strict cap on imports than it agreed to with Mexico and Canada," said Koji Endo, senior analyst at SBI Securities. "That would be a risk." This could be a big blow to Japan, as the United States is a key source of revenue for Japanese automakers including Toyota, Nissan and Honda. The U.S. market accounts for a quarter or more of their annual global vehicle sales, and of their total U.S.

Toyota Matrix not long for this world?

According to a report from AutoGuide, Toyota doesn't have plans to replace the aging Matrix hatchback in the United States after this year. If true, the timing coincides with the replacement for the Corolla, on which the Matrix is based, with that car slated to get its first complete redesign since 2006 (2008 in the US market).
We'd love to tell you how many Matrix models were sold by Toyota in the United States last year, but the automaker chooses to bundle Matrix sales with Corolla sales, so we have no idea. That said, we have to assume sales of the hatchback don't contribute much overall to the total number of Corolla-based machines.
We're also unsure if Toyota will choose to exit the youth-oriented compact hatchback market entirely, or if the automaker will rely instead on its hybrid Prius line and Scion models like the xB and xD.

Toyota Prius sales could come up short in 2013

A Toyota executive has said that the automaker's hybrid Prius model may not reach its 2013 goal of selling 250,000 units in the US marketplace. Bill Fay, group vice president for Toyota's US sales, told Reuters, "The 240,000 to 250,000 range is kind of where we're settling our sights for the Prius family."
The first-generation Prius, a five-passenger model, was introduced to the States in 2001 (its arrival made it the second mass-produced hybrid, after the two-seat Honda Insight). The second-generation model arrived in 2004, followed by the current third-generation design that arrived for the 2010 model year. The automaker has subsequently added the Prius V, a hatchback wagon (shown above) and the Prius C, a subcompact hatchback. As of March, 2013, cumulative worldwide sales of the Prius had reached 3.67 million units.
Last year, Toyota sold 236,659 Prius models in the US. However, sales of the model have fallen 5.1 percent in the first six months of 2013. In response, the automaker has boosted its marketing for the model, and the promotions are expected to continue through at least July.