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2016: The year of the autonomous-car promise

About half of the news we covered this year related in some way to The Great Autonomous Future, or at least it seemed that way. If you listen to automakers, by 2020 everyone will be driving (riding?) around in self-driving cars. But what will they look like, how will we make the transition from driven to driverless, and how will laws and infrastructure adapt? We got very few answers to those questions, and instead were handed big promises, vague timelines, and a dose of misdirection by automakers. There has been a lot of talk, but we still don't know that much about these proposed vehicles, which are at least three years off. That's half a development cycle in this industry. We generally only start to get an idea of what a company will build about two years before it goes on sale. So instead of concrete information about autonomous cars, 2016 has brought us a lot of promises, many in the form of concept cars. They have popped up from just about every automaker accompanied by the CEO's pledge to deliver a Level 4 autonomous, all-electric model (usually a crossover) in a few years. It's very easy to say that a static design study sitting on a stage will be able to drive itself while projecting a movie on the windshield, but it's another thing entirely to make good on that promise. With a few exceptions, 2016 has been stuck in the promising stage. It's a strange thing, really; automakers are famous for responding with "we don't discuss future product" whenever we ask about models or variants known to be in the pipeline, yet when it comes to self-driving electric wondermobiles, companies have been falling all over themselves to let us know that theirs is coming soon, it'll be oh so great, and, hey, that makes them a mobility company now, not just an automaker. A lot of this is posturing and marketing, showing the public, shareholders, and the rest of the industry that "we're making one, too, we swear!" It has set off a domino effect – once a few companies make the guarantee, the rest feel forced to throw out a grandiose yet vague plan for an unknown future. And indeed there are usually scant details to go along with such announcements – an imprecise mileage estimate here, or a far-off, percentage-based goal there. Instead of useful discussion of future product, we get demonstrations of test mules, announcements of big R&D budgets and new test centers they'll fund, those futuristic concept cars, and, yeah, more promises.

Could Tesla build EVs in China as soon as 2017?

A 25-percent import tariff can certainly make an automaker take notice (to wit: Toyota). In Tesla's case, that means getting production capabilities on the ground in China as soon as possible. According to Bloomberg News, that could mean 2017. Or maybe not. Bloomberg, citing comments by Tesla chief Elon Musk made at Beijing's Geekpark Conference earlier this week, said the California-based maker of the Model S electric sedan may start making vehicles in China as soon as 2017 or 2018. Musk also envisions a substantial charging network throughout cities such as Beijing and Shanghai and obviously thinks the current Chinese resistance to plug-in vehicles will pass. The California-based automaker delivered its first nine Model S EVs in China this week. Of course, Musk has a way with hyperbole, and when contacted by AutoblogGreen, a company representative toned down such a timeframe. "We hope that local production in China is in Tesla's future so that we can manufacture our vehicles where they are sold," wrote Tesla spokeswoman Liz Jarvis-Shean in an e-mail to AutoblogGreen. "We aren't likely to produce cars in China within the next three to four years, however, nor are we currently in any serious discussions to do so." By making cars in China, Tesla, which opened a showroom in Beijing late last year, would avoid the 25 percent import tax China enforces on foreign-made vehicles. As it is, Tesla is pricing the 85-kilowatt hour version of the Model S at about $118,000 in China. That's about $47,000 higher than the US base price, but it's actually kind of "aggressive." Musk has said Tesla will sell as many as 5,000 vehicles in China this year, while Tesla executives have said they expect China to account for a third of Tesla's global sales this year and as much as half next year. Tesla sold about 22,300 vehicles in the US last year. Tesla has also started leasing the Model S in Switzerland for roughly $750 a month. Read more details in the press release below. Tesla and Sixt Leasing Announce Strategic Partnership in Switzerland ZURICH, April 22, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Swiss Customers Can Drive Model S for About CHF 660 per month, After Fuel and Tax Savings in Multiple Cantons Leasing Offer Includes Annual Service Performed by Tesla Tesla today announced an expansion of its strategic relationship with Sixt Leasing. Now Model S customers in Switzerland, as well as Germany, can benefit from compelling lease offers from Sixt Leasing.

And now for a different sort of Tesla Model S review...

Our friends at Kelley Blue Book have taken an unflinching look at the Tesla Model S in a new video. The crew originally planned to pack up and whip the electric sedan all the way to Las Vegas from Los Angeles, but got sidelined by a flat tire. The ensuing detour to a Tesla service center resulted in a day of hopping from charge point to charge point and a number of close calls on the range front. Confronted with cold temperatures, a desire to make time and some serious topography, the Model S pulled up short on projected range but never left the guys stranded.
The team eventually makes it to Vegas and discovers the aggravation of trying to charge the car with anything other than the company's supercharger stations. The return trip goes quite a bit better, however, and KBB starts to figure out what makes the Model S so special. We won't ruin the end for you. You can check out the full clip below.