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Tesla investor says selling 500,000 EVs in 2020 is totally doable

Tesla Motors may make good on chief Elon Musk's claim of selling a half-million vehicles a year by the end of the decade, Motley Fool says. Of course, the author of the Foolish report in question owns Tesla shares but, now that we've gotten that out of the way, let's check out the logic. Tesla moved almost 22,500 Model S vehicles last year and it was the best-selling plug-in vehicle in the US during the fourth quarter. The company expects to sell about 35,000 this year but the rate of global sales could be double that by the end of the year. From then on out, it's all about economies of scale, with demand mushrooming overseas, costs dropping as a result of the company's slated "gigafactory" and the introduction of the $35,000-ish Model E by 2017. Add it all up, and you can get to 500,000 EVs a year, the Fool says. Late last month, Tesla disclosed details about its gigafactory, saying it will be fed by sun- and wind power, will employ about 6,500 people and will produce those half-million battery packs a year. Between the company and its partners, as much as $5 billion will be invested in the plant, which is slated to be somewhere in the southwestern US (but not in its native California). To put those projected half-million vehicles in perspective, let's look at the unquestioned champion of the green car movement for the past decade, the Toyota Prius and its many Toyota and Lexus gas-electric siblings. It's taken many years to get to this point, but Toyota can now sell about a million hybrids around the world in nine months.

Tesla sold 6,892 Model S EVs in Q4, stock jumps in afterhours trading

Quarterly shareholder letters, with accompanying financial results, are an opportunity for companies to crow about their recent progress and instill excitement about future expectations. Tesla Motor's latest such release reveals it's coop is rife with roosters in full song. And for good reason. The California automaker announced today it earned $46 million in 4th quarter of 2013 on a non-GAAP basis – under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), which calculates leasing and stock-based employee remuneration differently, it actually lost $16 million – selling 6,892 very lovely Model S electric sedans in the process. Further, it passed its predicted 25 percent gross profit margin on its cars, hitting 25.8 percent on a non-GAAP basis. This means, for the fiscal year of 2013 it sold 22,477 vehicles in total and had over 2.5 billion in (non-GAAP) sales, which includes, of course, supply and development deals with Toyota and Daimler. TSLA has jumped to a record high in the $217 neighborhood. That's pretty durned good, and the stock market would seem to agree. With the financials results dropping just after the NASDAQ's close, the price for TSLA has jump around 12 percent – over $23 as of this writing – to a record high in the $217 neighborhood. Those share price increases aren't just based on past performance, though. The info drop also included plenty of things to indicate the future bodes well. The company expects both sales and production to continue to rise throughout 2014, with a new assembly line expected to help churn out 1,000 cars per week in the 3rd quarter and profit margins projected to hit 28 percent by the end of the year. On the demand side, Tesla's CEO Elon Musk stated during the conference call that he doesn't expect the company to be able to meet the demand that's coming from China. Its new Beijing store is now the company's biggest and busiest and deliveries don't even begin until spring. While European sales are a little slower than anticipated, the exec said he believes it will improve as soon as the company irons out a few technical difficulties that have arisen with charging amongst the different territories there. Apparently, not all power grids operate in exactly the same way. Speaking of reservations for the upcoming Model X SUV, Elon said demand is high. Quote: "If you are going fishing, fish are actually jumping in the boat." That vehicle is only expected to start reaching customers next spring.

Wall Street still irrationally exuberant over Tesla shares

In a world where electric cars are far from the norm, it seems odd to us laypeople that you can't buy a share of Tesla stock (ticker symbol TSLA) for less than $230. But a research note issued Monday from Goldman Sach's respected team of auto industry analysts (seen in PDF form in our gallery) has added fuel to the irrational exuberance fire, guaranteeing that Tesla's stocks should hover at these seemingly unreasonable prices for some time.
Goldman Sachs analyst Patrick Archambault compared Tesla CEO Elon Musk to Apple's Steve Jobs, saying the Model S is a lot like the iPhone. The major difference is that it will take a lot longer for Tesla's electric cars to make a sizable dent in the auto industry, Archambault said, than it took for the iPhone to take over the smart phone world. If Tesla rolls out a non-luxury car in the next few years as is rumored, Archambault predicts the company could be selling 500,000 electric cars a year by 2022 or 2023. Based on those projections, the Goldman Sachs analysts says a fair price for Tesla's stock right now is about $200 a share.
Which, in the upside-down world of Wall Street, means the current share price of around $238 is nearly $40 overvalued. But that hasn't stopped traders from pushing up the price of Tesla's stock today between $3 and $4 a share. Over at Oilprice.com (subscription), contributor Martin Tiller on Friday was already sounding the alarm bells, saying Tesla share's are overpriced, despite the promising technology.