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Carlos Ghosn's arrest casts doubt on future of Renault-Nissan alliance

For years, France's Renault and Japan's Nissan struggled to make money in the global auto business. Then came Carlos Ghosn, a Renault executive who helped to orchestrate an unprecedented transcontinental alliance, combining parts of both companies to share engineering and technology costs. Now Ghosn's arrest in Japan for alleged financial improprieties at Nissan could put the nearly 20-year-old alliance in jeopardy. Ghosn, 64, born in Brazil, schooled in France and of Lebanese heritage, is set to be ousted this week from his spot as Nissan chairman. He could also lose his roles as CEO and chairman of Renault, threatening the alliance formed in 1999 that's now selling more than 10 million automobiles a year. He's been "the glue that holds Renault and Nissan together," Bernstein analyst Max Warburton wrote in a note to investors. "It is hard not to conclude that there may be a gulf opening up between Renault and Nissan." In fact, Nissan's investigation into alleged misconduct by Ghosn is expanding to include Renault-Nissan finances, sources told Reuters — in a further sign that Nissan may seek to loosen its French parent's hold on their global carmaking alliance. Nissan told Renault's board on Monday it had evidence of potential wrongdoing at Renault-Nissan BV, the Dutch venture overseeing alliance operations under Renault's ultimate control, three people with knowledge of the matter said. Renault's board planned to meet Tuesday to discuss Ghosn's fate. "Carlos Ghosn is no longer in a position where he is capable of leading Renault," French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told France Info radio, calling on Renault's board to meet "in the coming hours" to set up an interim management structure. The French government owns 15 percent in Renault and has a say in its operations. Nissan's board is to meet Thursday to consider Ghosn's fate. Nissan has said it will dismiss Ghosn after he was arrested for allegedly abusing company funds and misreporting his income. That opens up a leadership void at the entire alliance, for which Ghosn officially still serves as CEO and chairman. Ghosn added Mitsubishi to the alliance two years ago after the tiny automaker was caught in a gas-mileage cheating scandal. Renault owns 43.4 percent of Nissan, which owns 15 percent of Renault, with no voting rights in a partnership that began in 1999. Since 2016, Nissan has held a 34 percent controlling stake in Mitsubishi Motor Corp.

The UK votes for Brexit and it will impact automakers

It's the first morning after the United Kingdom voted for what's become known as Brexit – that is, to leave the European Union and its tariff-free internal market. Now begins a two-year process in which the UK will have to negotiate with the rest of the EU trading bloc, which is its largest export market, about many things. One of them may be tariffs, and that could severely impact any automaker that builds cars in the UK. This doesn't just mean companies that you think of as British, like Mini and Jaguar. Both of those automakers are owned by foreign companies, incidentally. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors of India, and Bentley by the VW Group. Many other automakers produce cars in the UK for sale within that country and also export to the EU. Tariffs could damage the profits of each of these companies, and perhaps cause them to shift manufacturing out of the UK, significantly damaging the country's resurgent manufacturing industry. Autonews Europe dug up some interesting numbers on that last point. Nissan, the country's second-largest auto producer, builds 475k or so cars in the UK but the vast majority are sent abroad. Toyota built 190k cars last year in Britain, of which 75 percent went to the EU and just 10 percent were sold in the country. Investors are skittish at the news. The value of the pound sterling has plummeted by 8 percent as of this writing, at one point yesterday reaching levels not seen since 1985. Shares at Tata Motors, which counts Jaguar and Land Rover as bright jewels in its portfolio, were off by nearly 12 percent according to Autonews Europe. So what happens next? No one's terribly sure, although the feeling seems to be that the jilted EU will impost tariffs of up to 10 percent on UK exports. It's likely that the UK will reciprocate, and thus it'll be more expensive to buy a European-made car in the UK. Both situations will likely negatively affect the country, as both production of new cars and sales to UK consumers will both fall. Evercore Automotive Research figures the combined damage will be roughly $9b in lost profits to automakers, and an as-of-yet unquantified impact on auto production jobs. Perhaps the EU's leaders in Brussels will be in a better mood in two years, and the process won't devolve into a trade war. In the immediate wake of the Brexit vote, though, the mood is grim, the EU leadership is angry, and investors are spooked.

The Nissan Patrol may become America's next Armada

Plausible rumors are swirling that the Nissan Patrol, the Land Cruiser rival sold outside of North America, might come to the US as a replacement for the unrelated Nissan Armada. That large SUV's future was left ambiguous after the news of the Xterra's discontinuation, as Nissan's press release ominously promised information on the Armada "at a later date" without further elaboration. That left us scratching our heads and thinking that, perhaps, it would be quietly killed off in the future. If the rumors are true, it will be. And then it will be reborn. It'll join its old platform-mate, the Infiniti QX80, on the Patrol platform. The QX abandoned its Titan-based platform in 2011, becoming the Patrol-based QX80. So you can think of the Armada as catching up, a few years late. The QX80 was refreshed last year, a mainly cosmetic nip-and-tuck. The Infiniti utilizes the 5.6-liter, 400-hp V8 and a 7-speed auto, so it's a safe bet that this powertrain will make it into the Armada version. Less likely, but plausible, would be the availability of the new powertrains intended for the Titan XD and upcoming lower-grade Titans. The massive SUV market tends to be a bit conservative, so the Cummins diesel V8 that's the sole engine in the Titan XD right now seems unlikely. The forums are abuzz with a photo of what's purported to be a leaked marketing image of the new Armada, so head to this TitanXDForum thread if you'd like to see what that's about. (Spoiler: it looks a lot like the Patrol above, minus some of the Nismo flair.) Related Video: