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Ghosn's legacy: one of the auto industry's most effective execs

"Bob Lutz ... estimated that carrying out the Nissan operation would be the equivalent, for Renault, of putting $5 billion in a container ship and sinking it in the middle of the ocean." So wrote Carlos Ghosn in "SHIFT: Inside Nissan's Historic Revival," which was published in the U.S. in late 2004. Two points about that observation: It is in keeping with Lutz's "Often wrong but never in doubt." It shows that Ghosn is a remarkable executive, given that he was able to take Nissan from the edge of financial oblivion to one of the foremost automotive companies (although with alliance partners Renault and, more recently, Mitsubishi). In 1999, Ghosn created what was named the "Nissan Revival Plan." It could have just as well been called the "Nissan Resuscitation Plan." Things were that bad. Now Ghosn is in the midst of legal trouble, accused of financial improprieties of some sort. There is no indication that this is at anything near the scale of what happened at Volkswagen Group. There's malfeasance. And then there's malfeasance. It is likely that this is going to be the end of Ghosn's career, but at age 64, and as a man who has spent nearly the past quarter-century essentially on airplanes, it is probably a good time to leave the stage. What his next act will be — to court or even prison — is an open question. But arguably, Ghosn's performance in the transformation of Nissan and Renault, which also needed some strong medicine to keep it from collapse in the early '00s (although one suspects that the French government would have done its damnedest to keep it propped up), makes him one of the all-time most-notable executives in the auto industry. Ghosn closed plants in both France and Japan and he worked to dismantle the Nissan keiretsu network of interlocked companies, things that were absolutely unthinkable. He established plans with stretch goals in their titles, like the "20 Billion Franc Cost-Reduction Plan," and worked with his people to achieve them, despite the pushback that seemed to come along with the announcement of the plan. As in, as he recalled in SHIFT, "Some people said, 'He's off the deep end. He's raving mad. Doesn't he know that at Renault you set the most conservative goals possible so you can be certain to reach them?' My answer to that sort of thinking was 'You're going to get what you ask for. If you set the bar too low, you'll be a low-level performance.

Nissan slashes profit forecast as Ghosn arrest hurts brand appeal

TOKYO — Nissan cut its profit forecast for the fiscal year through March on Wednesday to reflect slowing sales, higher costs and the fallout from a criminal investigation of its former chairman, Carlos Ghosn. Nissan Motor Co. expects to post a 319 billion yen ($2.9 billion) profit for the fiscal year, marking a 22% drop from its earlier 410 billion yen ($3.7 billion) forecast. Nissan said the downgrade reflects higher costs in the U.S. from a warranty extension campaign for some vehicles and falling sales due to "corporate issues," alluding to the Ghosn scandal. Ghosn was arrested in November and is facing charges of underreporting his income and breach of trust. He says he is innocent. He was released on bail in March and is awaiting another court decision on bail after his re-arrest on April 4. Nissan, which is allied with Renault SA of France, has seen sales lag in France and Japan, where Ghosn is widely known. In the U.S. and China, buyers aren't as affected by the scandal, but the markets there overall have slowed. Other factors contributed to the revision, such as production not keeping up with demand for the Note, an extremely popular model in Japan. But the high-profile scandal has weakened the brand appeal of the maker of the Leaf electric car, Infiniti luxury model and X-trail sports utility vehicle. Nissan said it expects to sell 5.5 million vehicles in this fiscal year. Earlier it predicted it would sell 5.6 million. The company sold nearly 5.8 million vehicles in the fiscal year that ended in March 2018. The automaker reduced its sales outlook by 0.2% for the fiscal year through March 2019 to 11.5 trillion yen ($103 billion), compared to its previous forecast. It was Nissan's second downgrade for its outlook following one in February that cited faltering sales in China and the U.S. At that time, Nissan also logged costs about 9.2 billion yen ($83 million) related to the alleged underreporting of Ghosn's compensation. Nissan has promised to strengthen its corporate governance to prevent a recurrence of what it says is serious wrongdoing by Ghosn. Ghosn was sent by Nissan's French alliance partner, Renault SA, to help turn the Japanese automaker around when it was near bankruptcy 20 years ago. The future of the alliance is one of many questions clouding Nissan's future following Ghosn's ouster since he was the main liaison for the alliance, which includes smaller Japanese automaker Mitsubishi Motors.

November U.S. new car sales mixed as automakers deepen discounts

DETROIT — Major automakers posted mixed U.S. November new vehicle sales on Friday and predicted a competitive December as they rushed to sell vehicles and boost their numbers before 2017 ends. Automakers are trying to sell down 2017 model-year vehicles, offering high discounts to consumers as the year-end nears. In 2016, the industry reported record annual sales of 17.55 million units. According to consultancies J.D. Power and LMC, discounts have been above 10 percent of the average transaction price for 16 of the past 17 months, a level experts say is unhealthy and unsustainable. The November sales results come as the National Automobile Dealers Association said on Friday it expects new vehicle sales to decline to 16.7 million units in 2018, after dropping to 17.1 million for the full year in 2017. If that forecast comes true, the race to move new vehicles off dealers' lots will only intensify next year. Brandon Mason, a director at PwC's automotive practice, said a worrying trend for the industry was a rising number of subprime loans. He said subprime levels are at just over 20 percent of originations, against more than 30 percent prior to the Great Recession, but recent increases remain a concern. "That's a bit of a red flag," Mason said. "It's something to keep an eye on as we move into 2018." November results by automaker: General Motors: Sales fell 2.9 percent, with sales to consumers flat against the same month in 2016. Much of the decrease was driven by lower fleet sales. GM said strong SUV and crossover sales pushed its average transaction price for the month above $37,000 for the first time. The level of unsold cars, which has been a concern for analysts and the industry, rose slightly to 83 days' supply, from 80 days at the end of October. "More vehicles are sold in December than any other month, and we are very well positioned because we have momentum in so many segments, but especially in crossovers," said Kurt McNeil, U.S. vice president of sales operations. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles: Fleet sales are low-margin, and FCA in particular has targeted a significant reduction in this type of sale in 2017. It posted a 4 percent overall decrease in sales for November, but fleet sales were down 25 percent while sales to consumers were up 2 percent on the year. Ford: The No. 2 U.S. automaker reported a 6.7 percent increase for the month, with fleet sales up nearly 26 percent and retail sales 1.3 percent higher than in November 2016.