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Carlos Ghosn's arrest casts doubt on future of Renault-Nissan alliance

For years, France's Renault and Japan's Nissan struggled to make money in the global auto business. Then came Carlos Ghosn, a Renault executive who helped to orchestrate an unprecedented transcontinental alliance, combining parts of both companies to share engineering and technology costs. Now Ghosn's arrest in Japan for alleged financial improprieties at Nissan could put the nearly 20-year-old alliance in jeopardy. Ghosn, 64, born in Brazil, schooled in France and of Lebanese heritage, is set to be ousted this week from his spot as Nissan chairman. He could also lose his roles as CEO and chairman of Renault, threatening the alliance formed in 1999 that's now selling more than 10 million automobiles a year. He's been "the glue that holds Renault and Nissan together," Bernstein analyst Max Warburton wrote in a note to investors. "It is hard not to conclude that there may be a gulf opening up between Renault and Nissan." In fact, Nissan's investigation into alleged misconduct by Ghosn is expanding to include Renault-Nissan finances, sources told Reuters — in a further sign that Nissan may seek to loosen its French parent's hold on their global carmaking alliance. Nissan told Renault's board on Monday it had evidence of potential wrongdoing at Renault-Nissan BV, the Dutch venture overseeing alliance operations under Renault's ultimate control, three people with knowledge of the matter said. Renault's board planned to meet Tuesday to discuss Ghosn's fate. "Carlos Ghosn is no longer in a position where he is capable of leading Renault," French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told France Info radio, calling on Renault's board to meet "in the coming hours" to set up an interim management structure. The French government owns 15 percent in Renault and has a say in its operations. Nissan's board is to meet Thursday to consider Ghosn's fate. Nissan has said it will dismiss Ghosn after he was arrested for allegedly abusing company funds and misreporting his income. That opens up a leadership void at the entire alliance, for which Ghosn officially still serves as CEO and chairman. Ghosn added Mitsubishi to the alliance two years ago after the tiny automaker was caught in a gas-mileage cheating scandal. Renault owns 43.4 percent of Nissan, which owns 15 percent of Renault, with no voting rights in a partnership that began in 1999. Since 2016, Nissan has held a 34 percent controlling stake in Mitsubishi Motor Corp.

Nissan itself will be indicted alongside Ghosn, report says

Prosecutors in Tokyo are expected to file charges against Nissan itself alongside an expected indictment against former Chairman Carlos Ghosn as part of the ongoing financial misconduct case. That's according to a report from Japan's Nikkei business daily, which does not identify its sources. Charges are also likely against Greg Kelly, a member of Nissan's board of directors who was taken into custody with Ghosn Nov. 19 after Japanese authorities questioned the former chairman aboard a corporate jet at the Tokyo Haneda airport. Monday is the deadline when prosecutors must either indict the two executives, release them or arrest them on new allegations. Both men are accused of under-reporting salaries in five annual reports that stretch through the fiscal year that ended in March 2015. The Nikkei says they'll also be arrested on new allegations of misstating financial information for the subsequent three business years. Nissan would be charged for not preventing the alleged crime. Both men have reportedly denied the allegations. In response to the Nikkei report, a spokesman for Nissan told Automotive News the company had "identified serious misconduct related to the reporting of Mr. Ghosn's compensation" and was cooperating with investors. The turmoil over Ghosn prompted the automaker to scrap plans to unveil a long-awaited longer-range Leaf electric car at the L.A. Auto Show last week. Ghosn is accused of conspiring to understate his income by about half the 10 billion yen (about $88 million) over the period. Reports say the issue relates to deferred compensation that Nissan CEO Hiroto Saikawa reportedly signed off on but may not have understood. The company didn't report the deferred compensation in Japanese securities filings as it is required, since the money is considered a future liability against the company. Automotive News cites an unnamed source who says Nissan has identified some $80 million in unreported deferred compensation promised to Ghosn. Nissan's board voted Nov. 22 to oust him as chairman, and Mitsubishi followed suit days later. Ghosn remains the CEO and chairman of Renault, however. Under Ghosn's guidance, Nissan and Renault joined forces in 1999 when Nissan was teetering toward bankruptcy. Mitsubishi joined on in 2016, with all three members able to jointly develop products and control costs. He had reportedly been pushing for deeper ties, including a possible merger between Nissan and Renault at the urging of the French government.

Half of Chinese car buyers won't shop Japanese over hard feelings

The hard feelings between China and Japan is no real secret. Besides modern-day disputes, the two countries have had a long-running enmity that dates back to well before the atrocities of World War II. All things considered, then, it shouldn't be a shock that half of Chinese car buyers wouldn't consider a Japanese car. This survey, conducted by Bernstein Research, found that 51 percent of 40,000 Chinese consumers wouldn't even consider a Japanese car – which, again, isn't really surprising, when you consider stories like this. According to Bernstein, the most troubling thing is the location of these sentiments – smaller, growing cities where the population is going to need sets of wheels. We imagine it wouldn't be as big of an issue in traffic-clogged Shanghai or Beijing, but these small cities are going to become a major focus for automakers. "Nationalistic feelings are an impediment. [Japanese] premium brands will struggle," analyst Max Warburton wrote in a research note, according to The Wall Street Journal. Things will improve for Japanese makes, although China will remain a challenge, with Warburton writing, "the one thing that comes out most clearly is that most Chinese really want a German car. While we expect Japanese brands to continue to recover market share this year, ultimately the market will belong to the Germans." There are a few other insights from the study. According to WSJ, Japanese brands are viewed better than Korean brands, and they're seen as more comfortable than the offerings from Germany or the US, despite the fact that everyone in China apparently wants a German car. This is a tough position for the Japanese makes to be in, as there's really not a lot they can do to win favor with Chinese buyers. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, particularly as the importance of the PRC continues to increase year after year. News Source: The Wall Street Journal - sub. req.Image Credit: Kazuhiro Nogi / AFP / Getty Images Honda Mazda Nissan Toyota Car Buying