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'Car Wars' says Ford, Honda to pick up share, Fiat-Chrysler ambitions downplayed

Don't look for a tremendous shifts in automotive market share over the next three years because it might not be coming. That's at least according to the annual Car Wars report by John Murphy, from Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research.
In the report's analysis of automakers' market share from 2013 to 2017, it predicts only small changes among the major companies. Ford and Honda see the biggest positive effect with an estimated 0.5 percent increase in their shares over the next three years; to 16.2 percent and 10.3 percent respectively. On the flip side, European automakers and Nissan are expected to lose 0.2 percent each to fall to 8.3 percent and 7.8 percent each respectively. The rest of the industry is predicted to hold steady as it is now.
The biggest loser in that prediction might be Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles. The report certainly throws a wet blanket on its plan for significant gains in market share. Murphy told The Detroit News that the company's goal was "almost unattainable."

Renault to propose joint holding company with Nissan, Nikkei reports

TOKYO — Renault SA will propose to Nissan Motor Co a plan to create a joint holding company that would give both firms equal footing as the French automaker seeks further integration with its Japanese partner, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Friday. Under the proposal, both firms would nominate a nearly equal number of directors to the new company in which ordinary shares in both Nissan and Renault would be transferred on a balanced basis, the newspaper said, without citing sources. This would effectively dilute the stake held by the French government in Renault to around 7-8 percent, from its current 15 percent, it added. The new company would be headquartered in a third country, such as Singapore. Renault plans to make the proposal to Nissan soon, the Nikkei said, having modified an earlier merger idea that Nissan rejected on April 12. Nissan declined to comment on the issue. The Financial Times newspaper reported that both Nissan and the Japanese government have refused to engage in merger talks with Renault. The report of the proposal comes as the outlook for the alliance — one of the world's top automaking partnerships — has clouded since the arrest in November of its main architect, Carlos Ghosn, for suspected financial misconduct. It also comes as Nissan's financial performance struggles following years of focusing on volume sales over building its brand, particularly in the United States, its biggest market. Nissan slashes its forecast This week, the Japanese automaker slashed its profit forecast for the year just ended to its lowest in nearly a decade, citing weakness in its U.S. operations. Renault for years has been vying for a closer merger with Nissan, which it rescued from the brink of bankruptcy two decades ago. Ghosn had been working to achieve a deeper integration before his arrest on financial misconduct charges in November last year. While the automakers have been consolidating many of their operations over the past decade, including procurement and production, many executives at Nissan have opposed an all-out merger with Renault. Instead, Nissan has argued for a more equal footing with Renault, which holds a 43 percent stake in its bigger partner. Nissan holds a 15 percent stake in Renault. It was unclear whether Renault would hold the casting vote in major decisions at the new company, as it did in Renault-Nissan B.V., a strategic management company jointly held by both companies that oversaw operations for the partnership.

FCA-Renault merger faces tall odds delivering on cost-cutting promises

FRANKFURT/DETROIT — Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and Renault promise huge savings from a mega-merger, but such combinations face tall odds because of the industry's long product cycles and problems translating deal blueprints into real world success, industry veterans told Reuters. BMW's 1994 purchase of Rover, and Daimler's 1998 merger with Chrysler both made sense on paper. The companies promised to hike profits by combining vehicle platforms and engine families. Both combinations proved unworkable in reality, and were unwound. Renault and Nissan, which have been in an alliance since 1999 designed to share vehicle components, have only managed to use common vehicle platforms in 35% of Nissan's products despite an original target of 70%, according to Morgan Stanley. FCA and Renault have raised the stakes for themselves by ruling out plant closures. That increases the pressure to achieve more than $5 billion in promised annual savings from pooling procurement and research investments. The two companies have yet to fill in many of the blanks in the merger plan put forward by Fiat Chrysler. Renault's board is expected to act soon to accept the proposal, but that would lead only to a memorandum of understanding to pursue detailed operational and financial plans. A final deal and the legal combination of the two companies could take months to complete if all goes well. Pressure to cut automotive pollution is driving the latest round of consolidation. Automakers are looking at multibillion-dollar bills to develop electric and hybrid cars and cleaner internal combustion engines. Fiat Chrysler and Renault are betting they can design common electric vehicle systems, then sell more of them through their respective brands and dealer networks, cutting the cost per car. Developing all-new electric vehicles can bring more opportunities to share costs from the outset, industry experts said. "With the emergence of connected, autonomous, electric and shared vehicles, carmakers face immediate investments, so new opportunities for sharing costs have emerged," said Elmar Kades, managing director at Alix Partners. However, most electric vehicles lose money. This is a challenge for city car brands in Europe in particular. Both Renault and Fiat rely heavily on this segment for sales.