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Japanese automakers welcome North American trade deal, fear what's next

TOKYO — Toyota, Nissan and Mazda welcomed on Tuesday the revised North America trade deal that left Japanese automakers unscathed, but they may face a bumpy ride when Washington and Tokyo hold new talks on over $40 billion of annual U.S. auto imports from Japan. The United States and Canada reached an agreement on Sunday to update the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement after Washington had forged a separate trade deal with Mexico in August. The updated deal effectively maintains the auto industry's current footprint in North America, and spares Canada and Mexico from the prospect of U.S. national security tariffs on their vehicles. Mazda, which ships cars to the United States from Mexico and Japan, called the deal a "big step forward". Nissan, which makes the cars it sells in the United States locally as well as in Mexico, Japan and other countries, said it was "encouraged" by the agreement. Toyota, Japan's biggest automaker, said it was "pleased" that a basic deal was reached. Other automakers were not immediately available for comment. While the deal has removed the risk that the disintegration of the pact would have posed to automakers, bigger risks loom large for Japanese firms as a chunk of the roughly 7 million cars they sold in the U.S. last year were shipped from Japan, and a trade deal between Washington and Tokyo has yet to be agreed. The United States and Japan last week agreed to begin fresh trade talks, with U.S. President Donald Trump seeking to address Japan's $69 billion trade surplus, of which nearly two-thirds comes from auto exports. Washington is also investigating the possibility of slapping 25 percent tariffs on auto imports on national security grounds, although it has agreed with Japan to put any new tariffs on hold during the talks. Analysts say the United States may take a tougher stance on auto imports from Japan than from its neighbors. "If Japan requests an exemption from the 25 percent tariffs under consideration, Washington could propose a more strict cap on imports than it agreed to with Mexico and Canada," said Koji Endo, senior analyst at SBI Securities. "That would be a risk." This could be a big blow to Japan, as the United States is a key source of revenue for Japanese automakers including Toyota, Nissan and Honda. The U.S. market accounts for a quarter or more of their annual global vehicle sales, and of their total U.S.

Takata adds millions to recall expansion in US [UPDATE]

UPDATE: Ford spokesperson Kelli Felker has advised Autoblog that of the 1,509,535 total vehicles worldwide that the company is recalling, 966,504 of them are new additions for this expanded safety campaign. Last week, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced that the Takata airbag inflator recalls would expand to an estimated 33.8 million vehicles in the US. However at the time, automakers weren't sure specifically which of their models might be affected under this enlarged campaign. Now, the numbers for BMW, FCA, Ford, and Mitsubishi are being released by the agency. Additionally, Honda is outlining the broadening of its own campaign. BMW's recall amounts to 420,661 vehicles in the US, an increase from 140,696 previously. All of the following models need their front, driver's side airbag replaced: 2002-2005 BMW 325i/325xi/330i/330xi Sedan 2002-2005 BMW 325xi/325i Sportswagon 2002-2006 BMW 330Ci/325Ci/M3 Convertible 2002-2006 BMW 325i/330i/M3 Coupe 2002-2003 BMW M5/540i/525i/530i Sedan 2002-2003 BMW 540i/525i Sportswagon 2003-2004 BMW X5 3.0i/4.4i BMW has received no reports of any injures or deaths from this problem in its vehicles. FCA has 5,224,845 vehicles globally in need of inflator replacements, according to its statement. However, the company is only aware of one injury related to the issue, which occurred in a 2006 Dodge Charger in southern Florida. There are 4,747,202 vehicles worldwide from the company that are affected on the front, driver's side. Among these, 4,066,732 are in the US, 374,508 are in Canada, and the rest are in other countries. The models are: 2005-2009 Dodge Ram 2500 Pickup 2004-2008 Dodge Ram 1500 Pickup 2006-2009 Dodge Ram 3500 Pickup 2007-2009 Dodge Ram 3500 Cab Chassis 2008-2010 Dodge Ram 4500/5500 Cab Chassis 2008-2009 Sterling 4500/5500 Cab Chassis 2004-2008 Dodge Durango 2007-2008 Chrysler Aspen 2005-2010 Chrysler 300/300C/SRT8 2005-2010 Dodge Charger/Magnum 2005-2011 Dodge Dakota 2006-2010 Mitsubishi Raider Also, there are 438,156 vehicles in the US, according to the NHTSA documents, that need their front passenger's side inflators replaced in the expansion of an earlier regional recall: 2003 Dodge Ram 1500 2003 Dodge Ram 2500 2003 Dodge Ram 3500 The total number of vehicles from Ford now covered under these campaigns stands at 1,509,535 worldwide. Of this total, there are 1,380,604 in the United States, 93,207 in Canada and 16,953 in Mexico.

The UK votes for Brexit and it will impact automakers

It's the first morning after the United Kingdom voted for what's become known as Brexit – that is, to leave the European Union and its tariff-free internal market. Now begins a two-year process in which the UK will have to negotiate with the rest of the EU trading bloc, which is its largest export market, about many things. One of them may be tariffs, and that could severely impact any automaker that builds cars in the UK. This doesn't just mean companies that you think of as British, like Mini and Jaguar. Both of those automakers are owned by foreign companies, incidentally. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors of India, and Bentley by the VW Group. Many other automakers produce cars in the UK for sale within that country and also export to the EU. Tariffs could damage the profits of each of these companies, and perhaps cause them to shift manufacturing out of the UK, significantly damaging the country's resurgent manufacturing industry. Autonews Europe dug up some interesting numbers on that last point. Nissan, the country's second-largest auto producer, builds 475k or so cars in the UK but the vast majority are sent abroad. Toyota built 190k cars last year in Britain, of which 75 percent went to the EU and just 10 percent were sold in the country. Investors are skittish at the news. The value of the pound sterling has plummeted by 8 percent as of this writing, at one point yesterday reaching levels not seen since 1985. Shares at Tata Motors, which counts Jaguar and Land Rover as bright jewels in its portfolio, were off by nearly 12 percent according to Autonews Europe. So what happens next? No one's terribly sure, although the feeling seems to be that the jilted EU will impost tariffs of up to 10 percent on UK exports. It's likely that the UK will reciprocate, and thus it'll be more expensive to buy a European-made car in the UK. Both situations will likely negatively affect the country, as both production of new cars and sales to UK consumers will both fall. Evercore Automotive Research figures the combined damage will be roughly $9b in lost profits to automakers, and an as-of-yet unquantified impact on auto production jobs. Perhaps the EU's leaders in Brussels will be in a better mood in two years, and the process won't devolve into a trade war. In the immediate wake of the Brexit vote, though, the mood is grim, the EU leadership is angry, and investors are spooked.