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Japanese automakers welcome North American trade deal, fear what's next

TOKYO — Toyota, Nissan and Mazda welcomed on Tuesday the revised North America trade deal that left Japanese automakers unscathed, but they may face a bumpy ride when Washington and Tokyo hold new talks on over $40 billion of annual U.S. auto imports from Japan. The United States and Canada reached an agreement on Sunday to update the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement after Washington had forged a separate trade deal with Mexico in August. The updated deal effectively maintains the auto industry's current footprint in North America, and spares Canada and Mexico from the prospect of U.S. national security tariffs on their vehicles. Mazda, which ships cars to the United States from Mexico and Japan, called the deal a "big step forward". Nissan, which makes the cars it sells in the United States locally as well as in Mexico, Japan and other countries, said it was "encouraged" by the agreement. Toyota, Japan's biggest automaker, said it was "pleased" that a basic deal was reached. Other automakers were not immediately available for comment. While the deal has removed the risk that the disintegration of the pact would have posed to automakers, bigger risks loom large for Japanese firms as a chunk of the roughly 7 million cars they sold in the U.S. last year were shipped from Japan, and a trade deal between Washington and Tokyo has yet to be agreed. The United States and Japan last week agreed to begin fresh trade talks, with U.S. President Donald Trump seeking to address Japan's $69 billion trade surplus, of which nearly two-thirds comes from auto exports. Washington is also investigating the possibility of slapping 25 percent tariffs on auto imports on national security grounds, although it has agreed with Japan to put any new tariffs on hold during the talks. Analysts say the United States may take a tougher stance on auto imports from Japan than from its neighbors. "If Japan requests an exemption from the 25 percent tariffs under consideration, Washington could propose a more strict cap on imports than it agreed to with Mexico and Canada," said Koji Endo, senior analyst at SBI Securities. "That would be a risk." This could be a big blow to Japan, as the United States is a key source of revenue for Japanese automakers including Toyota, Nissan and Honda. The U.S. market accounts for a quarter or more of their annual global vehicle sales, and of their total U.S.

Nissan's dismal 2019: Where does Japan's struggling brand go from here?

Auto sales have gradually slowed from their peak during the boom years that followed the global recession, but Nissan's rapid decline stood out even in a year when few high-volume manufacturers had much to be excited about.  Of the "Japanese 3," Nissan's 2019 performance was by far the most troubling. Through November, when the company last posted its global sales figures, its volumes were down 8 percent compared to 2019. Here in the United States, its full-year numbers were down 9.9% in an industry that slid just a hair more than 2 percent overall.  Meanwhile, Honda managed a slight increase in U.S. sales (0.2%) and Toyota, much like the industry in general, finished the year down approximately 2%. Like Nissan, Honda and Toyota have remained committed to cars — including compact and midsize sedans — and have a comprehensive portfolio of offerings in the key SUV and crossover segments.   On paper, Nissan's lineup checks all the right boxes. From the subcompact Kicks up to the Armada, it has something for sale in virtually every possible nook and cranny of the people-mover segment, but almost all of these trucks (and trucklets) took a beating in 2019. Only the baby Kicks managed to improve on its 2018 sales, which isn't saying a whole lot, considering it was barely sold in 2018 to begin with.  In fact, the bonus volume contributed by Kicks helps obscure just how poorly some of Nissan's key offerings performed last year. Combined Rogue and Rogue Sport sales slid 15%; Murano was down more than 18%; the Pathfinder and Armada managed to pace the general industry, dropping 2.8 and 1.9%, respectively, but the astute reader will note at this point that we've yet to single out any bright spots. The news was even worse on the truck side. Frontier was down 9.1%. Titan? Down 37.5%. Crossovers and SUVs are selling. Trucks, even from import brands, are also selling. Toyota's mid-size Tacoma was up in 2019; both it and the full-size Tundra still more than tripled the volume of their Nissan competitors. Further muddying the waters, Honda managed its year-over-year volume increase without selling a full-sized pickup at all.  What, then, is Nissan's problem? To borrow an oft-used phrase, "It's the product, stupid." The most striking evidence of this issue is the Rogue, which competes in the compact crossover segment — a collection of vehicles that essentially sell themselves.

Renault COO Tavares dreams of running GM or Ford

What do you do if you're in a job with no upward mobility? Admittedly, most of us just stick it out while secretly hoping our boss is sacked for all those paperclips he's been swiping, netting us a nice, shiny promotion. Then again, most of us aren't the number two at Renault, like Carlos Tavares.
Tavares is the right-hand man to Renault CEO, Carlos Ghosn, and like a lot of us, he's ready for another challenge. As Ghosn is only 59 years old and doesn't have a boss to fire him for paperclip theft, though, it's pretty unlikely that he'll be going anywhere anytime soon. Tavares doesn't seem too concerned, based on an interview he gave to Automotive News. "We have a big leader and he is here to stay," Tavares told AN.
What's surprising is where Tavares wants to go, "Why not GM? I would be honored to lead a company like GM." The Renault exec also mentioned Ford, and as AN points out, both organizations make a lot of sense. Both are led by CEOs that are approaching or are already past retirement age, and should be looking for dedicated replacements in the not-so-distant future. That doesn't mean Tavares is a shoe-in, though.