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BMW warns profits will fall, plans $13.6 billion in cost-cutting

FRANKFURT, Germany — BMW said Wednesday that profits in 2019 will be "well below" last year's, and it will cut 12 billion euros ($13.6 billion) in costs by the end of 2022 to offset spending on new technology. The company said profits would be eroded by higher raw materials prices, the costs of compliance with tougher emissions requirements and unfavorable shifts in currency exchange rates. The Munich-based automaker also faces increased uncertainty due to international trade conflicts that could lead to higher tariffs. "Depending on how conditions develop, our guidance may be subject to additional risks; in particular, the risk of a no-deal Brexit and ongoing developments in international trade policy," said Chief Financial Officer Nicolas Peter. The company forecast a profit margin of 6 to 8 percent for its automotive business, short of the long-term strategic target of 8 to 10 percent, which it said still "remains the ambition" for the company if given "a stable business environment." BMW said it had no plans for layoffs even as it outlined cost saving measures that include dropping half of its engine variants as it seeks to reduce product complexity. The BMW, Mini and Rolls-Royce brands are to get a single sales division. Peter said that given the headwinds to earnings, "we began to introduce countermeasures at an early stage and have taken a number of far-reaching decisions." The company said the measures were needed "to offset the ongoing high level of upfront expenditure required to embrace the mobility of the future." Automakers around the world have faced heavy up-front costs for technology expected to change how people get from one place to another in the next decade. Those include electric cars and renting cars through smartphone apps. Yet the returns from such investments remain uncertain and auto companies face competition from tech firms such as Uber and Waymo. BMW made 7.2 billion euros ($8.2 billion) in net profit last year, down 17 percent from 2017, when it booked a gain of $1 billion from U.S. tax changes. The company faced headwinds from increased tariffs on vehicles exported to China from the United States. It also suffered from turmoil on the German auto market when companies faced bottlenecks getting cars certified for new emissions rules. BMW faces uncertainty from U.S.-China trade tensions that could result in new tariffs if talks do not result in an agreement. U.S.

The UK votes for Brexit and it will impact automakers

It's the first morning after the United Kingdom voted for what's become known as Brexit – that is, to leave the European Union and its tariff-free internal market. Now begins a two-year process in which the UK will have to negotiate with the rest of the EU trading bloc, which is its largest export market, about many things. One of them may be tariffs, and that could severely impact any automaker that builds cars in the UK. This doesn't just mean companies that you think of as British, like Mini and Jaguar. Both of those automakers are owned by foreign companies, incidentally. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors of India, and Bentley by the VW Group. Many other automakers produce cars in the UK for sale within that country and also export to the EU. Tariffs could damage the profits of each of these companies, and perhaps cause them to shift manufacturing out of the UK, significantly damaging the country's resurgent manufacturing industry. Autonews Europe dug up some interesting numbers on that last point. Nissan, the country's second-largest auto producer, builds 475k or so cars in the UK but the vast majority are sent abroad. Toyota built 190k cars last year in Britain, of which 75 percent went to the EU and just 10 percent were sold in the country. Investors are skittish at the news. The value of the pound sterling has plummeted by 8 percent as of this writing, at one point yesterday reaching levels not seen since 1985. Shares at Tata Motors, which counts Jaguar and Land Rover as bright jewels in its portfolio, were off by nearly 12 percent according to Autonews Europe. So what happens next? No one's terribly sure, although the feeling seems to be that the jilted EU will impost tariffs of up to 10 percent on UK exports. It's likely that the UK will reciprocate, and thus it'll be more expensive to buy a European-made car in the UK. Both situations will likely negatively affect the country, as both production of new cars and sales to UK consumers will both fall. Evercore Automotive Research figures the combined damage will be roughly $9b in lost profits to automakers, and an as-of-yet unquantified impact on auto production jobs. Perhaps the EU's leaders in Brussels will be in a better mood in two years, and the process won't devolve into a trade war. In the immediate wake of the Brexit vote, though, the mood is grim, the EU leadership is angry, and investors are spooked.

Next Mini Clubman nearly ready to haul

With the three- and five-door Mini Hardtop models successfully hitting the market and the pending arrival of the hot John Cooper Works model at next week's Detroit Auto Show, Mini can turn its eye toward another important model, in the form of its next-generation Clubman, which our spies have spotted testing on the roads of Germany. Aside from the rear barn doors, the next Clubman looks to have a lot in common with the new five-door Hardtop, which makes sense considering how much the current car has in common with the R56 that it's based upon. That similarity ends quickly once you take a look inside the cabin. The typically open Mini cabin is more dramatically segmented in the new Clubman, with a high transmission tunnel that separates the driver and passenger. In a worrying move for fans of parking lot shenanigans, Mini is moving to an electronic parking brake in its new model, although beyond that, the center stack is similar to the redesign Mini pushed through for this latest generation. As is the case with the current Clubman, the next-gen will likely share its engines and gearboxes with the Hardtop, meaning a base 1.5-liter, three-cylinder turbo in the Cooper Clubman and a 2.0-liter, turbocharged four-cylinder in the Cooper S Clubman. Six-speed transmissions, in both two- and three-pedal varieties, will likely also be offered. Check out our gallery of spy photos of the new Clubman, up at the top of the page.