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Automakers face reality of EVs' cost — to jobs, and their bottom line

Related: We obsessively covered the Frankfurt Motor Show — here's our complete coverage FRANKFURT, Germany — European car bosses gathering for the Frankfurt auto show are beginning to address the realities of mass vehicle electrification, and its consequences for jobs and profit, their minds focused by government pledges to outlaw the combustion engine. As the latest such announcement by China added momentum to a push for zero-emissions motoring, Daimler, Volkswagen and PSA Group gave details about their electric programs that could give policymakers some pause. Planned electric Mercedes models will initially be just half as profitable as conventional alternatives, Daimler warned — forcing the group to find savings by outsourcing more component manufacturing, which may in turn threaten German jobs. "In-house production is almost irrelevant to the consumer," Daimler boss Dieter Zetsche told reporters on the eve of the Frankfurt Motor Show, in the midst of a German election campaign in which automotive jobs have loomed large. The company set a target of saving 4 billion euros ($4.8 billion) by 2025 to help fund the cost of its electric cars. "Daimler is the first company to state explicitly how much electric vehicles are going to hurt margins," said Bernstein analyst Max Warburton. "It was brave to go first — but of course it won't be the last." Volkswagen, for its part, said it was seeking new global supplier contracts to source 50 billion euros ($60 billion) of electric car content including batteries, which are not yet manufactured competitively in Europe. "A company like Volkswagen must lead, not follow," Chief Executive Matthias Mueller told reporters. VW diesel emissions-cheating exposed by U.S. regulators in 2015 triggered global public outrage, dozens more investigations into test-rigging by the wider industry and a push by some lawmakers to ban diesel and eventually all engines. TIGHTENING NOOSE Tesla shares jumped nearly 6 percent on Monday after a Chinese minister said it was a question of when, not if, Beijing bans fossil-fuel cars, tightening the noose around the combustion engine. France and Britain have promised its outright abolition by 2040. But PSA, the maker of Peugeots and Citroens, said it was concerned about the risks if consumers were left behind in the rush, and a new generation of battery cars does not sell.

Daimler and Geely collaborate to develop 'a highly efficient modular engine'

BERLIN — German car maker Daimler said on Tuesday it will cooperate with China's Geely to build next-generation combustion engines for use in hybrid vehicles. Efforts to share development costs come as the growth potential for combustion engines faces the twin threat of the COVID-19 crisis and stricter fuel-efficiency and emission rules. "The companies plan to develop a highly efficient modular engine," a spokesman for Daimler said, adding that it would be used in hybrid drivetrains and manufactured in Europe and China. Geely declined to comment. The modular engine will be used in cars under different marques at Geely and Daimler, a person familiar with the matter said on condition of anonymity as the companies are still in the early stages of developing the engine. News of the alliance was a surprise to Daimler's works council at its factory in Untertuerkheim, which specializes in electric and gasoline powertrain assembly. "We are speechless. There was not even a discussion about potential alternative manufacturing locations," said Michael Haeberle, the works council chief for Untertuerkheim. "We have the ability to build four-cylinder engines in Untertuerkheim, but there were no talks about it." Daimler said German factories will be retooled gradually to add electric drivetrains production. Most of the next-generation combustion engines will be made in China, business daily Handelsblatt reported. The alliance with Geely, which owns a 9.69% stake in Stuttgart-based Daimler, means that parts of Daimler's existing partnership with Renault could be pared back. A Renault source told Reuters that the Daimler-Geely project does not mean an end of cooperation between Daimler and Renault. Citing Daimler sources, Handelsblatt said the Daimler-Geely pact would save the German carmaker a "triple-digit million sum" — implying an amount above 100 million euros ($119 million) and less than 1 billion euros. Green Mercedes-Benz Volvo Hybrid Daimler Geely

The UK votes for Brexit and it will impact automakers

It's the first morning after the United Kingdom voted for what's become known as Brexit – that is, to leave the European Union and its tariff-free internal market. Now begins a two-year process in which the UK will have to negotiate with the rest of the EU trading bloc, which is its largest export market, about many things. One of them may be tariffs, and that could severely impact any automaker that builds cars in the UK. This doesn't just mean companies that you think of as British, like Mini and Jaguar. Both of those automakers are owned by foreign companies, incidentally. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors of India, and Bentley by the VW Group. Many other automakers produce cars in the UK for sale within that country and also export to the EU. Tariffs could damage the profits of each of these companies, and perhaps cause them to shift manufacturing out of the UK, significantly damaging the country's resurgent manufacturing industry. Autonews Europe dug up some interesting numbers on that last point. Nissan, the country's second-largest auto producer, builds 475k or so cars in the UK but the vast majority are sent abroad. Toyota built 190k cars last year in Britain, of which 75 percent went to the EU and just 10 percent were sold in the country. Investors are skittish at the news. The value of the pound sterling has plummeted by 8 percent as of this writing, at one point yesterday reaching levels not seen since 1985. Shares at Tata Motors, which counts Jaguar and Land Rover as bright jewels in its portfolio, were off by nearly 12 percent according to Autonews Europe. So what happens next? No one's terribly sure, although the feeling seems to be that the jilted EU will impost tariffs of up to 10 percent on UK exports. It's likely that the UK will reciprocate, and thus it'll be more expensive to buy a European-made car in the UK. Both situations will likely negatively affect the country, as both production of new cars and sales to UK consumers will both fall. Evercore Automotive Research figures the combined damage will be roughly $9b in lost profits to automakers, and an as-of-yet unquantified impact on auto production jobs. Perhaps the EU's leaders in Brussels will be in a better mood in two years, and the process won't devolve into a trade war. In the immediate wake of the Brexit vote, though, the mood is grim, the EU leadership is angry, and investors are spooked.