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The UK votes for Brexit and it will impact automakers

It's the first morning after the United Kingdom voted for what's become known as Brexit – that is, to leave the European Union and its tariff-free internal market. Now begins a two-year process in which the UK will have to negotiate with the rest of the EU trading bloc, which is its largest export market, about many things. One of them may be tariffs, and that could severely impact any automaker that builds cars in the UK. This doesn't just mean companies that you think of as British, like Mini and Jaguar. Both of those automakers are owned by foreign companies, incidentally. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors of India, and Bentley by the VW Group. Many other automakers produce cars in the UK for sale within that country and also export to the EU. Tariffs could damage the profits of each of these companies, and perhaps cause them to shift manufacturing out of the UK, significantly damaging the country's resurgent manufacturing industry. Autonews Europe dug up some interesting numbers on that last point. Nissan, the country's second-largest auto producer, builds 475k or so cars in the UK but the vast majority are sent abroad. Toyota built 190k cars last year in Britain, of which 75 percent went to the EU and just 10 percent were sold in the country. Investors are skittish at the news. The value of the pound sterling has plummeted by 8 percent as of this writing, at one point yesterday reaching levels not seen since 1985. Shares at Tata Motors, which counts Jaguar and Land Rover as bright jewels in its portfolio, were off by nearly 12 percent according to Autonews Europe. So what happens next? No one's terribly sure, although the feeling seems to be that the jilted EU will impost tariffs of up to 10 percent on UK exports. It's likely that the UK will reciprocate, and thus it'll be more expensive to buy a European-made car in the UK. Both situations will likely negatively affect the country, as both production of new cars and sales to UK consumers will both fall. Evercore Automotive Research figures the combined damage will be roughly $9b in lost profits to automakers, and an as-of-yet unquantified impact on auto production jobs. Perhaps the EU's leaders in Brussels will be in a better mood in two years, and the process won't devolve into a trade war. In the immediate wake of the Brexit vote, though, the mood is grim, the EU leadership is angry, and investors are spooked.

Mercedes making aggressive plans for Chinese market

Mercedes-Benz is preparing a major product offensive to counteract lagging sales in the Chinese market, aiming 20 new or updated models at the People's Republic in the next two years, according to a report by Reuters. The plan is part of MB's so-called 2020 Initiative, which will see the Stuttgart-based manufacturer dump 2 billion Euros ($2.67 billion) into its Chinese market vehicles in a bid to boost sales to 300,000 units by 2015.
Were it to succeed, China would become the largest market for the Silver Arrow, outpacing Germany and the United States. Leading the charge will be the redesigned E-Class, which is set to launch in China this week. That will quickly be followed by the S-Class, and eventually by the GLA-Class in 2014.
Mercedes has struggled in China, especially relative to its German competition, BMW and Audi. Where Mercedes saw a mere four-percent increase in 2012 sales to 206,150 units, Audi was up a staggering 32 percent, while BMW's numbers jumped 41 percent. While some voices, according to Reuters, accuse Munich and Ingolstadt of boosting their numbers through hefty incentives, the fact remains that Mercedes was just walloped by its competitors last year.

Daimler rebuffs Geely offer to buy stake

HONG KONG/BEIJING - Daimler AG has turned down an offer from China's Geely to take a stake of up to 5 percent via a discounted share placement, as the German automaker has long been reluctant to see existing shareholdings diluted, sources with knowledge of the talks said. A stake of that size would be worth $4.5 billion at current market prices. Although Daimler declined the offer, it told Geely it was welcome to buy shares in the open market, the sources added. Carmakers in China have embarked on a flurry of dealmaking, as they scramble to boost production of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles ahead of tough new quotas to be imposed by Beijing, which wants to reduce urban smog and lower the country's reliance on oil. People with knowledge of Geely's thinking said the company was keen to access Daimler's electric car battery technology and wanted to establish an electric car joint venture in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province. Geely, which also owns Swedish car maker Volvo, is still hopeful it can secure a deal in some form over the coming weeks, they added. The two automakers met in Beijing in recent weeks at Geely's behest. There, the Chinese firm, formally known as Zhejiang Geely Holding Group, offered to take a stake of between 3 percent and 5 percent if Daimler would issue new shares at a discount, the sources said. It was not immediately clear what kind of discount for the shares Geely had in mind or whether Geely was interested in buying the shares on the open market. A spokesman for Geely declined to comment. A spokesman for Daimler said the company was "very happy with our shareholder structure at present", but added that it would welcome new investors with a long-term interest in the company. Shares in Daimler were up 1 percent in early Wednesday trade, in line with the broader market.DAIMLER ALREADY TIED TO BAIC, BYD Geely, which has a market value of some $32 billion, is the leading domestic brand in China with a 5 percent market share, according to an analysis by Nomura Securities. A stake of 5 percent would establish it as Daimler's third-largest shareholder behind the Kuwait Investment Authority and BlackRock, who hold 6.8 percent and 6 percent respectively, according to Reuters data.