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Honda poised for growth, Detroit to hold steady, Car Wars study says

The automotive industry is expected to keep booming in the US over the next several years, but the train might start running out of steam in the long term, according to 2015's Car Wars report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy. The forecast focuses on changes between the 2016 and 2019 model years, and the latest trends appear similar in some cases to the past predictions. Sales are expected to keep growing and reach a peak of 20 million in 2018, according to the Detroit Free Press. The expansion is projected to come from a quick pace of vehicle launches, with an average of 48 introductions a year – 26 percent more than in 1996. Crossovers are expected to make up a third of these, maintaining their strong popularity. However, Murphy predicts a decline, as well. By 2025, total sales could fall to around 15 million units. As of May 2015, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this year stands at 17.71 million. Like last year, Honda is predicted to be a big winner in the future thanks to products like the next-gen Civic. "Honda should be the biggest market share gainer," Murphy said when presenting the report, according to Free Press. Meanwhile, in a situation similar to Car Wars from 2012, a lack of many new vehicles is expected to cause a drop for Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan. Based on this forecast, Ford, General Motors, and FCA US will all generally maintain market share for the coming years. The report does make some future product predictions, though. The next Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra might come in 2019, which is earlier than expected. Also, Lincoln could get a Mustang-based coupe for 2017, a compact sedan for 2018 and an Explorer-based model in 2019, according to the Free Press. Related Video: News Source: The Detroit Free PressImage Credit: Nam Y. Huh / AP Photo Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Lincoln Car Buying fca us

Mixed sales results, but automaker stocks rise on need for cars in Houston

DETROIT — The Big Three Detroit automakers on Friday reported better-than-expected August sales and issued optimistic outlooks for demand as residents of the Houston area replace flood-damaged cars and trucks after Hurricane Harvey, sending their stocks higher. General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler posted mixed August U.S. sales, with GM up 7.5 percent and Ford and Fiat Chrysler down. Japanese automaker Toyota improved sales by nearly 7 percent, while Honda fell 2.4 percent. Still, analysts focused on the potential for Detroit automakers to cut inventories and stabilize used vehicle prices as residents of Houston, the fourth largest city in the United States, are forced to replace tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of vehicles after the devastation from Hurricane Harvey. Mark LaNeve, Ford's U.S. sales chief, told analysts on Friday that following Hurricane Katrina in 2005 "we saw a very dramatic snapback" in demand. That said, Ford sales fell 2.1 percent in August. It sold 209,897 vehicles in the United States, compared with 214,482 a year earlier. Sales were down 1.9 percent in the Ford division and off 5.8 percent at Lincoln. Demand was down for cars, crossovers and SUVs. It was not clear how many vehicles in the Houston area will be scrapped, LaNeve said, saying he had seen estimates ranging from 200,000 to 400,000 to 1 million. Ford's Houston dealers may have lost fewer than 5,000 vehicles in inventory, he said. Ford is the No. 1 automaker in the Houston market, with 18 percent share, according to IHS Markit. The company plans to ship used vehicles to Houston dealers and has "every indication we would have to add some production" of new vehicles to meet demand, LaNeve said. Investor concerns about inventories of unsold vehicles and falling used car prices have weighed on Detroit automakers' shares most of this year. Now, automakers can anticipate a jolt of demand from a big market that is a stronghold for Detroit brand trucks and SUVs. "It's got to be a positive for the industry," LaNeve said. Investors appeared to agree. GM shares rose as much as 3.3 percent to their highest since early March. Ford increased 2.8 percent at $11.34, and Fiat Chrysler's U.S.-traded shares were up 5.2 percent $15.91, hitting their highest in more than five years. GM reported a 7.5 percent increase in U.S. auto sales in August, helped by robust sales of crossovers across its four brands.

How the Lincoln Continental Concept almost wasn't

That Lincoln Continental Concept that everyone is so excited about? It almost didn't happen. Speaking at the private reveal event for the concept yesterday, Ford Motor Company CEO Mark Fields revealed that when the design team started working on the vehicle that eventually became the Continental, the designers thought it was just another full-size luxury concept, and were turning in ideas to match. The problem, Fields said, is that this was an important vehicle to get right. "A full-size luxury sedan for a luxury brand is a very important marker that, I think, sets the beat for the brand and it creates a lot of awareness and favorability if you do it right," he said. "As we were designing this concept ... we reviewed with the designers the themes. The first couple of themes the team came with really didn't do it for us because we want to make sure that every vehicle that we bring out with Lincoln moves the brand forwards in a big way. So we went through the first couple of them and we really didn't get that kind of 'oomph' in the pit of our stomach." The team was stuck with an upcoming debut and nothing exciting to show for it, until the past was brought into the present. "In one of the design reviews, we were looking around at everyone and we mentioned, you know what, why don't we call this the Continental Concept? And I have to tell you, the body language was unbelievable in the design showroom. Everybody's head snapped up and you could see everybody's eyes widen and they started nodding and they said, 'now we get it.'" Aside from the Navigator, every vehicle Lincoln currently sells is simply named a trio of letters that start with M and K. Fields knew that the large luxury segment sedan is important for a company like Lincoln, with about 1.8 million units sold last year and an expected growth to around 2 million units by the end of the decade, he said. "When you think about where that growth is coming from, it's still a substantial segment here in the US, it's a very substantial segment and even more substantial segment in China. As a matter of fact, that segment grew by 17 percent last year and China is the largest market for full-size luxury sedans." Given the positive reaction to the Continental Concept thus far, bringing the name back from the dead might be just the thing Lincoln needed.