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Lincoln Nautilus, Ford Edge latest prediction: Production ends in July 2024

In June, Auto Forecast Solutions put out a report compiled by its vice president of global forecasting, Sam Fiorani. One item in the report covered how Fiorani had heard from "multiple sources" that Ford shut down the program to replace the Edge crossover in 2023. Assuming this came to pass, with the Lincoln Nautilus based on the Edge, the inference is that the Nautilus would retire at or around the same time. Ford's response to media queries about the report was either "No comment" or PR-speak deflection. Lincoln's statement on the matter to Motor1, a crafty non-answer, was, "The Nautilus plays and will continue to play an important role in Lincoln’s growing SUV portfolio which includes the Corsair, Aviator and Navigator. Lincoln is investing in growth segments like SUVs and we have no plans to exit the segment." It's possible Lincoln has no plans to leave the segment, but the Nautilus might, according to a fresh, unsourced report in Ford Authority. The site claims the Nautilus will end production at the Oakville Assembly Plant in Ontario, Canada, in July 2024.  Again, we can't know how much, if any of this, is true. But we're zeroing in on a timeline for the potential end of the Edge and Nautilus in the U.S. Those are the only two products Oakville currently builds, and when the Canadian union Unifor asked Ford about the reports in June, Ford couldn't offer union reps anything concrete or reassuring. The Detroit News quoted Unifor chief Jerry Dias as saying of the automaker, "There is no question, they are going through a major evaluation of their portfolio, based on a whole host of things."   We could be seeing one of the earlier theories for Edge's potential demise coming true. Some analysts suspect Ford could be pruning its crossover lineup because it has too many similarly-sized offerings at the moment, the Edge hasn't met its sales targets in Europe, and more compact crossovers are on the way that could bring better street cred if they're associated with the Bronco or Bronco Sport. Unifor and Ford are now in negotiations over a new contract, so it's possible we'll get more clarity in the next month or so about Ford's plans and what will come of Oakville and its roughly 4,000 workers. If Ford walks away from the assembly plant, it will only have two engine plants left in Canada, and no vehicle assembly north of the border for the first time in about a century.

Lincoln revival bypasses rear-wheel drive for now

Ford execs had the axe ready for Lincoln just a few years ago, but the luxury marque is on a hot streak these days. Annual sales are up 7.5 percent through October, and the recently unveiled, refreshed 2017 MKZ previews the company's improved styling. In a great piece about the brand's growth strategy, Automotive News finds the division's bosses want to focus on the core vehicles before taking a big step and building a rear-wheel drive niche model. "Luxury coupes and sports cars are not the first place we need to go," Global Lincoln Director Matt VanDyke said in the story. The division's bosses want to use the updated MKZ as an opportunity to distance Lincoln's identity from Ford, and the powertrain will carry the 3.0T badge rather than Ford's EcoBoost name as part of that approach. The model also injects excitement into the range thanks to an all-wheel drive version with a 3.0-liter twin-turbo V6 with 400 horsepower and an optional Driver's Package with a torque-vectoring rear differential. Lincoln will launch at least three new models by 2020, too. One of those will be the production Continental that will reportedly debut at the Detroit Auto Show. The company will also allegedly revive the Aviator to fit below the Navigator. The third vehicle remains a mystery but likely isn't a compact. Automotive News' story further examines the previously languishing brand's work to climb up the luxury ranks in the US. It's well worth a read. Related Video:

Buyers ditching expensive European sedans to buy expensive American trucks

The New York Times ended the automotive week with a story that adds numbers and context to a range of other stories, from the crossover craze to the increasing median price of a new car to ever more grandiose pickup trucks. The NYT piece reveals that the shift to larger vehicles isn't merely about the average U.S. buyer swapping the midsize sedan for a Ford Edge. Luxury buyers are migrating from plush sedans to plush SUVs and trucks that creep close to six-figure prices, and the Detroit Three are running Treasury presses because of it. From 2013 to 2017, the truck category — everything from pickups to minivans — climbed from 30 percent of the market to 41 percent. In January of this year, trucks claimed 66 percent of new vehicle sales. At the milk-and-honey end of profits, GMC alone accounted for 11.3 percent of all vehicle sales over $60,000, not just trucks. That puts the luxury truck maker behind Mercedes-Benz and Ford, The Blue Oval's feasting on Lariat, King Ranch and Raptor versions of the F-150, which make up more than half of that pickup's sales, putting it ahead of Chevrolet, Porsche and Lexus on the high-dollar sales list. The average transaction price of a GMC in Denali trim last year was $56,000; it's easy to see why, when one dealer told the NYT he just swapped a 2012 BMW 550i for a $71,000 GMC Sierra Denali. That truck starts at $52,900. The NYT started its story with a buyer who took home a Ford Raptor instead of an Audi A6, and optioned that $50,020 Ford Raptor close to $80,000. Over at Lincoln, the new $72,055 Navigator — the one so popular that Ford will increase production — crossed hands for an average sale price of $77,000 in January. And a Jeep dealer told the NYT that the two $93,000 Trackhawks he had on his lot "won't be here more than a few weeks." While trucks head up in sales volume and price, cars are headed so viciously in the opposite direction that "the Detroit Three and even some foreign manufacturers acknowledge they are now losing money on many of the cars they sell." So ... get ready for a lot more crossovers and trucks. Related Video: Find out what vehicle is right for you. Give our Car Finder tool a try.