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Honda poised for growth, Detroit to hold steady, Car Wars study says

The automotive industry is expected to keep booming in the US over the next several years, but the train might start running out of steam in the long term, according to 2015's Car Wars report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy. The forecast focuses on changes between the 2016 and 2019 model years, and the latest trends appear similar in some cases to the past predictions. Sales are expected to keep growing and reach a peak of 20 million in 2018, according to the Detroit Free Press. The expansion is projected to come from a quick pace of vehicle launches, with an average of 48 introductions a year – 26 percent more than in 1996. Crossovers are expected to make up a third of these, maintaining their strong popularity. However, Murphy predicts a decline, as well. By 2025, total sales could fall to around 15 million units. As of May 2015, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this year stands at 17.71 million. Like last year, Honda is predicted to be a big winner in the future thanks to products like the next-gen Civic. "Honda should be the biggest market share gainer," Murphy said when presenting the report, according to Free Press. Meanwhile, in a situation similar to Car Wars from 2012, a lack of many new vehicles is expected to cause a drop for Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan. Based on this forecast, Ford, General Motors, and FCA US will all generally maintain market share for the coming years. The report does make some future product predictions, though. The next Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra might come in 2019, which is earlier than expected. Also, Lincoln could get a Mustang-based coupe for 2017, a compact sedan for 2018 and an Explorer-based model in 2019, according to the Free Press. Related Video: News Source: The Detroit Free PressImage Credit: Nam Y. Huh / AP Photo Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Lincoln Car Buying fca us

Chevy, Lincoln dealers say they still want sedans

Detroit automakers have famously turned their backs on sedans as they make the strategic bet to double down on money-making trucks and SUVs, but dealers for at least two American brands are giving the companies contrary signals. In separate recent interviews with leading national dealer councils for Chevrolet and Lincoln, Automotive News reports that both brands’ dealers still see a need for cars. The publication published a Q&A interview with Mike Bowsher, chairman of the Chevrolet National Dealer Council, who said Chevy dealers managed to hold onto market share last year despite the phase-out of the Cruze compact sedan and hatchback, thanks to products like the Spark and Sonic subcompacts and the Trax and Equinox crossovers. But, he acknowledged, “We do feel like we could use a car, especially in the low-MSRP range.” The comments follow similar recent comments from Tom Lynch, who chairs the Lincoln National Dealer Council. He told AN, “If weÂ’re not in segments where there is still a good amount of business, I think the company and the dealers lose out.” The Cruze was one of the victims of GMÂ’s November 2018 announcement of plant closures, with production having ceased with the closure of GMÂ’s Lordstown, Ohio assembly plant last year. GM sold 47,975 Cruzes in 2019 but a healthy 142,617 in 2018. At Lincoln, Lynch said the council has been telling the company it needs to stick with the sedan segment, despite plans to kill the MKZ sedan in the coming months and unconfirmed reports that the Continental isnÂ’t long for this world, either, despite the buzz of the suicide-door Coach Door Edition, shown in the photo above. Lincoln sold 17,725 MKZs and 6,586 Continental sedans in 2019, down a combined 15%, but still good for almost 22% of overall Lincoln sales. It's worth noting that Lincoln competes in a luxury segment that still expresses allegiance to four- and two-door cars. Even Cadillac, its cross-town rival, is staying active with the upcoming CT5 and CT4 sedans. Lynch pointed to Tesla as evidence that strong sedan products can resonate with consumers, though he conceded that “What that looks like for Lincoln going forward, IÂ’m not sure of.” For now, anyway, Chevy still offers the Sonic and Spark subcompacts, the latter of which saw sales climb 32.5% in 2019 to 31,281 (Sonic sales fell nearly as steeply).

Buyers ditching expensive European sedans to buy expensive American trucks

The New York Times ended the automotive week with a story that adds numbers and context to a range of other stories, from the crossover craze to the increasing median price of a new car to ever more grandiose pickup trucks. The NYT piece reveals that the shift to larger vehicles isn't merely about the average U.S. buyer swapping the midsize sedan for a Ford Edge. Luxury buyers are migrating from plush sedans to plush SUVs and trucks that creep close to six-figure prices, and the Detroit Three are running Treasury presses because of it. From 2013 to 2017, the truck category — everything from pickups to minivans — climbed from 30 percent of the market to 41 percent. In January of this year, trucks claimed 66 percent of new vehicle sales. At the milk-and-honey end of profits, GMC alone accounted for 11.3 percent of all vehicle sales over $60,000, not just trucks. That puts the luxury truck maker behind Mercedes-Benz and Ford, The Blue Oval's feasting on Lariat, King Ranch and Raptor versions of the F-150, which make up more than half of that pickup's sales, putting it ahead of Chevrolet, Porsche and Lexus on the high-dollar sales list. The average transaction price of a GMC in Denali trim last year was $56,000; it's easy to see why, when one dealer told the NYT he just swapped a 2012 BMW 550i for a $71,000 GMC Sierra Denali. That truck starts at $52,900. The NYT started its story with a buyer who took home a Ford Raptor instead of an Audi A6, and optioned that $50,020 Ford Raptor close to $80,000. Over at Lincoln, the new $72,055 Navigator — the one so popular that Ford will increase production — crossed hands for an average sale price of $77,000 in January. And a Jeep dealer told the NYT that the two $93,000 Trackhawks he had on his lot "won't be here more than a few weeks." While trucks head up in sales volume and price, cars are headed so viciously in the opposite direction that "the Detroit Three and even some foreign manufacturers acknowledge they are now losing money on many of the cars they sell." So ... get ready for a lot more crossovers and trucks. Related Video: Find out what vehicle is right for you. Give our Car Finder tool a try.