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Honda poised for growth, Detroit to hold steady, Car Wars study says

The automotive industry is expected to keep booming in the US over the next several years, but the train might start running out of steam in the long term, according to 2015's Car Wars report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy. The forecast focuses on changes between the 2016 and 2019 model years, and the latest trends appear similar in some cases to the past predictions. Sales are expected to keep growing and reach a peak of 20 million in 2018, according to the Detroit Free Press. The expansion is projected to come from a quick pace of vehicle launches, with an average of 48 introductions a year – 26 percent more than in 1996. Crossovers are expected to make up a third of these, maintaining their strong popularity. However, Murphy predicts a decline, as well. By 2025, total sales could fall to around 15 million units. As of May 2015, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this year stands at 17.71 million. Like last year, Honda is predicted to be a big winner in the future thanks to products like the next-gen Civic. "Honda should be the biggest market share gainer," Murphy said when presenting the report, according to Free Press. Meanwhile, in a situation similar to Car Wars from 2012, a lack of many new vehicles is expected to cause a drop for Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan. Based on this forecast, Ford, General Motors, and FCA US will all generally maintain market share for the coming years. The report does make some future product predictions, though. The next Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra might come in 2019, which is earlier than expected. Also, Lincoln could get a Mustang-based coupe for 2017, a compact sedan for 2018 and an Explorer-based model in 2019, according to the Free Press. Related Video: News Source: The Detroit Free PressImage Credit: Nam Y. Huh / AP Photo Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Lincoln Car Buying fca us

How the Lincoln Continental Concept almost wasn't

That Lincoln Continental Concept that everyone is so excited about? It almost didn't happen. Speaking at the private reveal event for the concept yesterday, Ford Motor Company CEO Mark Fields revealed that when the design team started working on the vehicle that eventually became the Continental, the designers thought it was just another full-size luxury concept, and were turning in ideas to match. The problem, Fields said, is that this was an important vehicle to get right. "A full-size luxury sedan for a luxury brand is a very important marker that, I think, sets the beat for the brand and it creates a lot of awareness and favorability if you do it right," he said. "As we were designing this concept ... we reviewed with the designers the themes. The first couple of themes the team came with really didn't do it for us because we want to make sure that every vehicle that we bring out with Lincoln moves the brand forwards in a big way. So we went through the first couple of them and we really didn't get that kind of 'oomph' in the pit of our stomach." The team was stuck with an upcoming debut and nothing exciting to show for it, until the past was brought into the present. "In one of the design reviews, we were looking around at everyone and we mentioned, you know what, why don't we call this the Continental Concept? And I have to tell you, the body language was unbelievable in the design showroom. Everybody's head snapped up and you could see everybody's eyes widen and they started nodding and they said, 'now we get it.'" Aside from the Navigator, every vehicle Lincoln currently sells is simply named a trio of letters that start with M and K. Fields knew that the large luxury segment sedan is important for a company like Lincoln, with about 1.8 million units sold last year and an expected growth to around 2 million units by the end of the decade, he said. "When you think about where that growth is coming from, it's still a substantial segment here in the US, it's a very substantial segment and even more substantial segment in China. As a matter of fact, that segment grew by 17 percent last year and China is the largest market for full-size luxury sedans." Given the positive reaction to the Continental Concept thus far, bringing the name back from the dead might be just the thing Lincoln needed.

How Lincoln could make itself special again

Things are going better for the Lincoln brand — or, more properly, The Lincoln Motor Company — so far this year, and are likely to continue to do so, comparatively speaking. In the first quarter of 2017, the brand's sales are up 8.7 percent compared with the same period last year. Lincoln delivered 27,083 units in the first quarter. The Continental is certainly a boon, with 3,209 units (almost 12 percent of the total number), something Lincoln didn't have in the first quarter of 2016. Its crossovers, the MKC and MKX, were up 15 and 11.2 percent, respectively, and while the Navigator SUV was down 16.2 percent, the new 2018 model will certainly boost that nameplate. Still, there is undoubtedly a glass — or crystal — ceiling for Lincoln (as well as for Cadillac) that it's not likely to break through regarding total US sales. No matter how you look at it, the US luxury market is dominated by import brands, and there is no reason to think that's going to change. Ever. According to Autodata, for the first quarter of 2017 there were 213,817 luxury vehicles delivered, of which 170,780 were from import brands and 43,037 domestic. While there is a good likelihood that Lincoln will gain some ground, given the lineup extensions that the likes of Mercedes, Audi, BMW, and Lexus are making, as well as the creation of new brands like Genesis and the traction of Tesla, it is going to be all the more challenging for any company to get any significant growth in the luxury category. So growth for Lincoln, yes. Notable growth? No. But there is something the company could do to generate revenue separate from the car and crossover business. It may not make a lot of money in and of itself, but it can provide a distinct edge in the product segment that would cement Lincoln with a unique offering. Kumar Galhorta, president of Lincoln, frequently talks about "experiences." About how the company is working to relieve or eliminate "pain points" from its customers. About how time — or the perceived lack thereof — is something Lincoln is working to address. And it's doing so in a way that gives it a distinctiveness vis-a-vis the competitive set. Lincoln's services are creating a buzz in a way that Matthew McConaughey ads never will. Lincoln is addressing it through service. As in offering pickup and delivery for service appointments for all new 2017 Lincoln models.