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Could Jaguar become an EV-only brand?

Just yesterday we wrote about the Heisenbergian uncertainty surrounding the future of the Jaguar F-Type. A new report in Autocar prompts us to consider extending that ambiguity to the entire Jaguar brand. The UK magazine reports the automaker's product planners have devised a ten-year plan to switch to a pure EV lineup of cars and crossovers. According to Autocar's sources this is a planning exercise and doesn't have the green light, but it's "fairly advanced" and has adherents inside the company. The first shot fired would be an all-electric XJ replacement. That sedan, a "no-holds-barred luxury car" to challenge the Tesla Model S and Porsche Taycan, would provide emissions-free motoring before the Mercedes-Benz S-Class and BMW 7 Series come with their EV propositions. Around 2023, an EV crossover a touch larger than the full-sized Audi E-tron would replace both the XF and XE sedans. Two years later, a new mid-sized I-Pace would debut as both the F-Pace and E-Pace fade out. And two years after that, around 2027, the J-Pace luxury crossover would sigh its last ICE gasp. And what about the F-Type? The report says "with no replacement for F-Type in the works," an electric sports car "is also a possibility." There's no mention of the XK revival. Right now, Jaguar sells seven models - four sedans and three crossovers. As the Autocar article's written, come 2027 Jaguar would have an electric XJ sedan, a full-sized EV crossover, the I-Pace, and perhaps an electric sports car. That's a brave new world - one we're not sure Jaguar dealers could survive in. Problem is that Jaguar and its dealers are having plenty of problems now. Chinese-market volatility, the cloud around diesels, and Brexit uncertainty have contributed to a sales slump so dire that Jaguar's Castle Bromwich plant is going to a three-day week for the rest of the year. The sales flu has spread to Land Rover, too, the brand's Solihull plant closing for two weeks to realign dealer inventory. Considering all that, and with no easy relief in sight, the product planners are apparently debating whether a new, traditional three-model sedan range is worth the investment. The upside of going all-electric is said to be higher sales, with internal estimates supposing 300,000 units annually. Last year Jaguar sold 178,500 units. The marque could rake in larger profit margins on those sales, too, thanks to premium buyers being ready to shell out big ducats for EVs.

Jaguar may join the FWD, small-car parade

Was it right for Chevrolet to detune the 1975 Corvette's base engine to 165 horsepower? Was Aston Martin wrong to make the Toyota iQ-based Cygnet? Is BMW crazy to be testing the new 1 Series with three-cylinder engines and front-wheel drive? It seems now, just as in the 1970s and 1980s, that emissions regulations and social considerations are driving some automakers to adopt unbefitting practices to maintain acceptance in the eyes of governments and consumers. Jaguar has jumped on the bandwagon, and is considering development of small, frugal, front-wheel-drive cars to help lower Jaguar Land Rover's average vehicle CO2 levels in light of tightening European emissions regulations, Autocar reports.
By 2020, the European Union expects the model range of every manufacturer to average 95 grams per kilometer, which is a new law passed by the European Parliament in April. Manufacturers who make more than 300,000 vehicles per year must meet these targets, and JLR is expected to be producing up to 700,000 vehicles per year by then. CO2 regulations after 2020 will only get stricter, as EU politicians already are talking about lowering CO2 levels to between 68 g/km and 78 g/km. (To put that in perspective, Autocar posits that driving a fully charged electric vehicle in Europe produces about 75 g/km when factoring in the power-generation infrastructure.)
Jaguar has some choices here, but so far they all have drawbacks. It could develop a new, compact chassis architecture for a line of compact vehicles, but the investment required for such a project could be prohibitively expensive. Jaguar has been looking into using the Land Rover Evoque platform for a small SUV, Autocar reports, but Land Rover brand manager John Edwards raises issue with such a plan, saying it may not be financially feasible.

UK car output falls 14% in March, may get worse with no-deal Brexit

LONDON — British car output fell for the 10th month in a row in March, hit by a slowdown in key foreign markets, and the sector stands to suffer a lot more if the country leaves the European Union without a deal, an industry body said on Tuesday. Output tumbled by an annual 14.4 percent to 126,195 cars in March, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said. Exports, which account for nearly four out of every five cars made in Britain, were down by 13.4 percent. The SMMT said analysis it had commissioned predicted output would fall this year to 1.36 million units from 1.52 million in 2018, assuming London can secure a transition deal with the EU. If Britain has to rely instead on World Trade Organization rules for its trade with the bloc, which include import tariffs, output is forecast to fall by around 30 percent to 1.07 million units in 2021, returning to mid-1980s levels, the SMMT said. The forecasts were produced for SMMT by AutoAnalysis, a consultancy. Prime Minister Theresa May has secured a delay to the Brexit deadline until Oct. 31, giving her more time to try to break an impasse in parliament over the terms of Britain's departure from the EU. Foreign minister Jeremy Hunt traveled to Japan earlier this month to try to persuade the Japanese government and Toyota, which has a big presence in Britain, that London was determined to avoid a no-deal Brexit. "Just a few years ago, industry was on track to produce 2 million cars by 2020 — a target now impossible with Britain's reputation as stable and attractive business environment undermined," SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said. "All parties must find a compromise urgently so we can set about repairing the damage and diverting energy and investment to the technological challenges that will define the future of the global industry." (Reporting by William Schomberg, editing by David Milliken)