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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Could Jaguar become an EV-only brand?

Just yesterday we wrote about the Heisenbergian uncertainty surrounding the future of the Jaguar F-Type. A new report in Autocar prompts us to consider extending that ambiguity to the entire Jaguar brand. The UK magazine reports the automaker's product planners have devised a ten-year plan to switch to a pure EV lineup of cars and crossovers. According to Autocar's sources this is a planning exercise and doesn't have the green light, but it's "fairly advanced" and has adherents inside the company. The first shot fired would be an all-electric XJ replacement. That sedan, a "no-holds-barred luxury car" to challenge the Tesla Model S and Porsche Taycan, would provide emissions-free motoring before the Mercedes-Benz S-Class and BMW 7 Series come with their EV propositions. Around 2023, an EV crossover a touch larger than the full-sized Audi E-tron would replace both the XF and XE sedans. Two years later, a new mid-sized I-Pace would debut as both the F-Pace and E-Pace fade out. And two years after that, around 2027, the J-Pace luxury crossover would sigh its last ICE gasp. And what about the F-Type? The report says "with no replacement for F-Type in the works," an electric sports car "is also a possibility." There's no mention of the XK revival. Right now, Jaguar sells seven models - four sedans and three crossovers. As the Autocar article's written, come 2027 Jaguar would have an electric XJ sedan, a full-sized EV crossover, the I-Pace, and perhaps an electric sports car. That's a brave new world - one we're not sure Jaguar dealers could survive in. Problem is that Jaguar and its dealers are having plenty of problems now. Chinese-market volatility, the cloud around diesels, and Brexit uncertainty have contributed to a sales slump so dire that Jaguar's Castle Bromwich plant is going to a three-day week for the rest of the year. The sales flu has spread to Land Rover, too, the brand's Solihull plant closing for two weeks to realign dealer inventory. Considering all that, and with no easy relief in sight, the product planners are apparently debating whether a new, traditional three-model sedan range is worth the investment. The upside of going all-electric is said to be higher sales, with internal estimates supposing 300,000 units annually. Last year Jaguar sold 178,500 units. The marque could rake in larger profit margins on those sales, too, thanks to premium buyers being ready to shell out big ducats for EVs.

2023 J.D. Power APEAL Study shows new-car customer satisfaction scores slip

J.D. Power survey results have been slightly up but mostly down for automakers this year, literally. In February, the 2023 Vehicle Dependability Study showed an overall decline compared the 2022 a month before the Customer Service Index Study did the same. The trend reversed in June with a better overall score on the 2023 U.S. Electric Vehicle Consideration Study than in 2022, then declined again the same month on with a lower overall score on the 2023 Initial Quality Study. The declines continue with the 2023 J.D. Power U.S. Automotive Performance, Execution and Layout (APEAL) Study, overall satisfaction among the 84,555 respondents down two points overall compared to 2022, to 845 out of 1,000 points. Because last year's score dropped compared to 2021, this year marks the first consecutive decline in the study's 28-year history. The study tries to "[measure] owners' emotional attachment and level of excitement with new vehicle" after 90 days of ownership by asking new owners to rate 37 attributes in 10 areas around the vehicle, such as the feeling they get when they hit the accelerator. Satisfaction with nine of the attributes is down this year versus last, fuel economy the only segment to show better results with 15 points more satisfaction. Styling and infotainment are big drags on satisfaction. Responses to new car exterior looks tallied 888 points, down from 894 last year, the largest drop in this year's study. On the digital side, less than half of those surveyed this year said they prefer using a manufacturer's built-in infotainment. From 70% of respondents in 2020 preferring to use a manufacturer's in-house software to play audio instead of Android Auto or Apple CarPlay, that's 56% in 2023. Going all-in on Google appears to have the best effect. J.D. Power said that vehicles with both Google's Android Automotive Operating System (AAOS) and Google Automotive Services (GAS) "score higher in the infotainment category than those with no AAOS whatsoever. AAOS without GAS receives the lowest scores for infotainment of the three categories."  Frank Hanley, senior director of auto benchmarking at J.D. Power, said, "Despite the technology and design innovations that manufacturers put into new vehicles, owners are lukewarm about them. While innovations like charging pads, vehicle apps and advanced audio features should enhance an owner’s experience, this is not the case when problems are experienced.