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The UK votes for Brexit and it will impact automakers

It's the first morning after the United Kingdom voted for what's become known as Brexit – that is, to leave the European Union and its tariff-free internal market. Now begins a two-year process in which the UK will have to negotiate with the rest of the EU trading bloc, which is its largest export market, about many things. One of them may be tariffs, and that could severely impact any automaker that builds cars in the UK. This doesn't just mean companies that you think of as British, like Mini and Jaguar. Both of those automakers are owned by foreign companies, incidentally. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors of India, and Bentley by the VW Group. Many other automakers produce cars in the UK for sale within that country and also export to the EU. Tariffs could damage the profits of each of these companies, and perhaps cause them to shift manufacturing out of the UK, significantly damaging the country's resurgent manufacturing industry. Autonews Europe dug up some interesting numbers on that last point. Nissan, the country's second-largest auto producer, builds 475k or so cars in the UK but the vast majority are sent abroad. Toyota built 190k cars last year in Britain, of which 75 percent went to the EU and just 10 percent were sold in the country. Investors are skittish at the news. The value of the pound sterling has plummeted by 8 percent as of this writing, at one point yesterday reaching levels not seen since 1985. Shares at Tata Motors, which counts Jaguar and Land Rover as bright jewels in its portfolio, were off by nearly 12 percent according to Autonews Europe. So what happens next? No one's terribly sure, although the feeling seems to be that the jilted EU will impost tariffs of up to 10 percent on UK exports. It's likely that the UK will reciprocate, and thus it'll be more expensive to buy a European-made car in the UK. Both situations will likely negatively affect the country, as both production of new cars and sales to UK consumers will both fall. Evercore Automotive Research figures the combined damage will be roughly $9b in lost profits to automakers, and an as-of-yet unquantified impact on auto production jobs. Perhaps the EU's leaders in Brussels will be in a better mood in two years, and the process won't devolve into a trade war. In the immediate wake of the Brexit vote, though, the mood is grim, the EU leadership is angry, and investors are spooked.

Jaguar Land Rover to recall 44,000 vehicles over excessive diesel emissions

Jaguar Land Rover is recalling 44,000 vehicles in the U.K. due to some of its vehicles emitting higher CO2 emissions than were officially stated. The recall is said to affect vehicles equipped with JLR's 2.0-liter diesel engine in cars built between 2014 and 2018. Quite a few models are affected, including the Jaguar XE, XF, E-Pace, F-Pace, along with the Land Rover Discovery Sport, Range Rover Evoque, Range Rover Velar and Range Rover Sport. The excessive CO2 emissions were discovered by the British vehicle certification agency, who then reported it to JLR. The company is reportedly working on a fix that will satisfy the agency and bring the cars back in line with their stated CO2 emissions. As of now, JLR is not saying what the fix will entail. A statement from JLR reads: "The modifications will be made free of charge, and every effort will be made to minimize inconvenience to the customer." The U.K. magazine Which? said JLR told them owners might experience minor changes to the "overall vehicle experience." Reading between the lines there, that sounds like there could be some pretty serious tampering with the engine software, but we'll leave the speculation to a minimum for now. CO2 emissions numbers are used in the U.K. to set tax levels for vehicles, which means JLR could have gotten out of some taxation with its artificially low CO2 numbers. At this point we don't know how badly the numbers are off, so it's impossible to know how egregious the mislabeling is. There also isn't any explanation for why the CO2 numbers are off, but this is all information that could be forthcoming. The 44,000 number could rise, too, because the UK vehicle standards agency says that some gasoline models could also be involved. That would open a whole new can of worms for JLR. Some Jaguar vehicles (XE, XF and F-Pace) offer a 2.0-liter diesel option for the U.S., but Land Rover's only diesel it sells here now is the 3.0-liter V6. For the time being there's no recall out on the diesel or gas engines from JLR in the U.S. There's no chatter surrounding emissions cheat devices like those involved with Volkswagen's diesel emissions scandal. Nor does the scale of whatever the problem is come anywhere near the amount of Volkswagen diesels that needed to be recalled or taken off the roads. We'll be keeping tabs on the situation to see if this expands any further than the U.K. Green Recalls Jaguar Land Rover SUV Diesel Vehicles Luxury Sedan

Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.