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FCA and Peugeot reportedly agree on merger

Citing a Wall Street Journal report, the Detroit Free Press says "Fiat Chrysler and PSA Groupe have agreed to merge." The Journal reported on talks between the two car companies only yesterday. It's said that Peugeot's board met yesterday to approve the deal, FCA's board met today, and an announcement could come as soon as tomorrow, Thursday. Both automakers have released statements, but neither company has released any information beyond admitting to ongoing talks. If the merger happens, the combined entity would become the world's fourth-largest carmaker with a $50 billion valuation, slotting in behind Toyota, the Volkswagen Group, and the Renault Nissan Mitsubishi alliance. Among the merger options possible, "an all-stock merger of equals" is the one analysts and Moody's seem to give the best grade. The reported merger would come about four months after FCA walked away from merger talks with Renault. FCA said the French government scuppered those talks over the role of Nissan in a reformed entity, but there were also brewing issues with French unions, and ongoing turmoil among Renault and Nissan leadership thanks to continuing fallout from ex-CEO Carlos Ghosn's arrest last year. FCA makes most of its revenue in the U.S. and rules Italy, while Peugeot is the second-best-selling automaker in Europe with its own brand in France and Opel in Germany. The two companies already have a partnership in Europe making vans, one that FCA CEO Mike Manley has spoken highly of. Among the list of obvious benefits in a potential merger, FCA would get access to Peugeot's small, modern platforms, $10.2 billion in cash, and electrified and hybrid architecture developments, the latter especially important to FCA as those are fields where it lags. Peugeot would get much easier access to the U.S. market, and the money-printing brands Jeep and Ram. A merged carmaker would have combined sales of nearly 9 million a year, based on 2018 results. By comparison, both Volkswagen and Toyota sell over 10 million cars a year, while the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance almost 11 million. Peugeot CEO Carlos Tavares has proved he knows how to do turnarounds and mergers. After leaving a position as Carlos Ghosn's right-hand man in 2012, Tavares took over Peugeot in 2014, navigated a bailout from the French government and China's Dongfeng Motors in 2015, and turned PSA into a regional powerhouse.

For his last act, Marchionne will outline an EV/hybrid roadmap this week

MILAN/LONDON — Fiat Chrysler (FCA) boss Sergio Marchionne is expected to outline new plans for electric and hybrid cars in a strategy presentation on Friday, aiming to ensure the world's seventh-largest carmaker remains in the race in the absence of a merger. The 65-year-old will present FCA's strategy to 2022, his final contribution to the company he turned around and multiplied in value through 14 years of canny dealmaking. After failing to secure a tie-up he said was necessary to manage the costs of producing cleaner vehicles, Marchionne needs to show the group can keep churning out profits on its own, even as emissions rules tighten, SUV competition intensifies and worries around his succession abound. Marchionne had long refused to jump on the electrification bandwagon, saying he would only do so if selling battery-powered cars could be done at a profit. He even urged customers not to buy FCA's Fiat 500e, its only battery-powered model, because he was losing money on each sold. But Tesla's success and the need to comply with tougher emissions rules have forced Marchionne to commit to what he calls "most painful" spending. "FCA is way behind rivals in terms of hybrid and electric vehicles and they need to hit the accelerator to convince investors they can close that gap," said Andrea Pastorelli, a fund manager at 8a+ Investimenti. Germany's Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW and U.S. rivals GM and Ford have committed to spending billions of euros each in coming years to try produce profitable cars powered by cleaner fuels. FCA needs to present a clear roadmap, just like Volvo Cars, which ditched diesel from its best-selling XC60 SUV, launched a new electric brand and pledged to shift all brands to hybrid by 2019, a banking source close to FCA said, noting: "The tech divide determines winners and losers in the industry." Marchionne has already said half of the wider FCA fleet will incorporate some elements of electrification by 2022, while luxury marque Maserati will spearhead FCA's electrification drive by making all new models due after 2019 electric. But its plans remain vaguer and less advanced than most big rivals and some investors wonder about the capital required to make vehicles compliant, and what share of spending can go to electrification given FCA's numerous demands.

Mixed sales results, but automaker stocks rise on need for cars in Houston

DETROIT — The Big Three Detroit automakers on Friday reported better-than-expected August sales and issued optimistic outlooks for demand as residents of the Houston area replace flood-damaged cars and trucks after Hurricane Harvey, sending their stocks higher. General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler posted mixed August U.S. sales, with GM up 7.5 percent and Ford and Fiat Chrysler down. Japanese automaker Toyota improved sales by nearly 7 percent, while Honda fell 2.4 percent. Still, analysts focused on the potential for Detroit automakers to cut inventories and stabilize used vehicle prices as residents of Houston, the fourth largest city in the United States, are forced to replace tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of vehicles after the devastation from Hurricane Harvey. Mark LaNeve, Ford's U.S. sales chief, told analysts on Friday that following Hurricane Katrina in 2005 "we saw a very dramatic snapback" in demand. That said, Ford sales fell 2.1 percent in August. It sold 209,897 vehicles in the United States, compared with 214,482 a year earlier. Sales were down 1.9 percent in the Ford division and off 5.8 percent at Lincoln. Demand was down for cars, crossovers and SUVs. It was not clear how many vehicles in the Houston area will be scrapped, LaNeve said, saying he had seen estimates ranging from 200,000 to 400,000 to 1 million. Ford's Houston dealers may have lost fewer than 5,000 vehicles in inventory, he said. Ford is the No. 1 automaker in the Houston market, with 18 percent share, according to IHS Markit. The company plans to ship used vehicles to Houston dealers and has "every indication we would have to add some production" of new vehicles to meet demand, LaNeve said. Investor concerns about inventories of unsold vehicles and falling used car prices have weighed on Detroit automakers' shares most of this year. Now, automakers can anticipate a jolt of demand from a big market that is a stronghold for Detroit brand trucks and SUVs. "It's got to be a positive for the industry," LaNeve said. Investors appeared to agree. GM shares rose as much as 3.3 percent to their highest since early March. Ford increased 2.8 percent at $11.34, and Fiat Chrysler's U.S.-traded shares were up 5.2 percent $15.91, hitting their highest in more than five years. GM reported a 7.5 percent increase in U.S. auto sales in August, helped by robust sales of crossovers across its four brands.