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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

2016 Hyundai Tucson First Drive [w/video]

For most of us, September 2009 doesn't seem like that long ago. We had the same president, carried Apple iPhones, and were even paying roughly the same amount for a gallon of gas. For Hyundai, though, this particular month was when everything began to change, thanks to the introduction of "fluidic sculpture" and the second-generation Tucson. The swoopy, handsome styling introduced on the Tucson infiltrated the rest of the brand's offerings, starting with the Sonata sedan and filtering through. In the process, Hyundai raised its flag not as a manufacturer of ultra-affordable utilitarian transport, but as a company that builds fashionable, well-equipped, and high-quality cars. While it's no secret Hyundai is in a better place than it was nearly six years ago, the importance of the Tucson has grown substantially. Much as the second-gen model helped to signal Hyundai's arrival as a global player, the company hopes the third generation will mark its entry as one of the industry's premier crossover builders. Based on a day of driving around some of Minnesota's 10,000 lakes, we think that's an attainable goal. According to Hyundai's research, the Tucson is viewed as "sporty, stylish, and modern." Targeting that first notion is the new 1.6-liter, turbocharged Gamma four-cylinder, which sits under the hood of Eco, Sport, and Limited models. The single-scroll turbo allows the tiny four to deliver 175 horsepower and 195 pound-feet of torque. There's also a 2.0-liter, naturally aspirated four-cylinder for the base SE, with 164 hp and 151 lb-ft of torque, although we weren't able to score any time behind the wheel. Look for more on the base Tucson in the near future. The turbo, though, is shockingly quiet at idle, and isn't too bad as it climbs the tachometer. North of 6,000 rpm, though, it's loud, buzzy, and unpleasant. Even with the turbo's peak twist available from 1,500 to 4,500 rpm, there's little hiding the maximum curb weight of 3,710. After a smidge of lag, initial torque comes on strong, although the weight of this compact crossover soon overwhelms what power is available. That'd be a problem were it not for the new seven-speed, dual-clutch transmission. Paired exclusively with the 1.6-liter turbo (the 2.0-liter gets a traditional six-speed auto), the dry-clutch gearbox is able to deliver smooth but quick changes, particularly at engine speeds below 5,000 rpm.

Who can really claim first mass-produced fuel cell vehicle delivery in US?

Last month, Hyundai said that the initial deliveries of the Tucson Fuel Cell vehicles in California meant that, "For the first time, retail consumers can now put a mass-produced, federally-certified hydrogen fuel cell vehicle in their driveways." But try telling that to Jon Spallino. In 2005, Honda leased a hydrogen fuel cell FCX, a small hatchback, to the Spallino family (as far as we know, he parked it in his driveway). The company did the same thing again in 2008 with the FCX Clarity, a sleek new design based on the FCX Concept, and others signed for the H2 ride as well, including celebrities. No matter how you slice it, Honda has been in the fuel cell delivery market for almost a decade now. Just look at this. Or this. Or this. Oh, and other automakers (General Motors in Project Driveway in 2006 and Mercdes-Benz with the F-Cell in 2010, for example) have delivered fuel cell vehicles in the US as part of short-term test programs. But let's get back to Hyundai's claim. There's little question that the first delivery of a "fuel cell vehicle for the US market" has already taken place (and they were federally certified, too), which means that the debate revolves around the definition of mass-produced and whether "mass production" is about a number or about the process? Let's investigate below. First, lets review Honda's bona fides. We can start with the official version of Honda's fuel cell history, which is missing the pertinent detail that Honda build the Clarity on a dedicated assembly line and established a small network of three dealerships to lease the FCX Clarity in 2008. All of the FCX Clarity vehicles in customer hands in the US were leased through these dealerships. Sure, Honda started with hand-built stacks in its hydrogen vehicles, but went to automated control of some parts and components with series production. "It is good to see others doing today what we've been doing since 2008" – Steve Ellis, Honda Or, as Honda's Steve Elllis put it to AutoblogGreen regarding Hyundai's fuel cell deliveries: "This was exactly as prescribed by the creation of the California Fuel Cell Partnership. It's the very essence of 'co-op-itition.' We at Honda, as do many others, continue to push forward on many technologies, both the battery and the fuel cell. And society is the beneficiary." Then he added, "It is good to see others doing today what we've been doing since 2008." Now, how does Hyundai compare?