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2016: The year of the autonomous-car promise

About half of the news we covered this year related in some way to The Great Autonomous Future, or at least it seemed that way. If you listen to automakers, by 2020 everyone will be driving (riding?) around in self-driving cars. But what will they look like, how will we make the transition from driven to driverless, and how will laws and infrastructure adapt? We got very few answers to those questions, and instead were handed big promises, vague timelines, and a dose of misdirection by automakers. There has been a lot of talk, but we still don't know that much about these proposed vehicles, which are at least three years off. That's half a development cycle in this industry. We generally only start to get an idea of what a company will build about two years before it goes on sale. So instead of concrete information about autonomous cars, 2016 has brought us a lot of promises, many in the form of concept cars. They have popped up from just about every automaker accompanied by the CEO's pledge to deliver a Level 4 autonomous, all-electric model (usually a crossover) in a few years. It's very easy to say that a static design study sitting on a stage will be able to drive itself while projecting a movie on the windshield, but it's another thing entirely to make good on that promise. With a few exceptions, 2016 has been stuck in the promising stage. It's a strange thing, really; automakers are famous for responding with "we don't discuss future product" whenever we ask about models or variants known to be in the pipeline, yet when it comes to self-driving electric wondermobiles, companies have been falling all over themselves to let us know that theirs is coming soon, it'll be oh so great, and, hey, that makes them a mobility company now, not just an automaker. A lot of this is posturing and marketing, showing the public, shareholders, and the rest of the industry that "we're making one, too, we swear!" It has set off a domino effect – once a few companies make the guarantee, the rest feel forced to throw out a grandiose yet vague plan for an unknown future. And indeed there are usually scant details to go along with such announcements – an imprecise mileage estimate here, or a far-off, percentage-based goal there. Instead of useful discussion of future product, we get demonstrations of test mules, announcements of big R&D budgets and new test centers they'll fund, those futuristic concept cars, and, yeah, more promises.

EV battery prices to stop falling in 2020, Hyundai says

SEOUL — Hyundai believes electric vehicle battery prices will level off by 2020 due to supply constraints of key ingredients, ending years of sharp declines that have helped stimulate activity in the booming sector. Despite its cautious outlook, the South Korean carmaker and smaller affiliate Kia plan to release 38 green models using a variety of technologies by 2025, Hyundai Motor Senior Vice-President Lee Ki-sang said. "Not a single ingredient is going in a positive direction in terms of pricing," Lee, who oversees Hyundai's green car operations, said in remarks to reporters last week that were embargoed until Wednesday. "So far battery prices have been declining at a rapid pace, but the pace will moderate significantly or maintain the status quo by 2020." While rivals have announced ambitious plans for electric vehicles, some analysts say Hyundai has been late to the game. It plans to launch a long-range electric vehicle next year, well behind the likes of General Motors and Tesla. Demand for minerals such as nickel, cobalt and lithium used in electric car batteries is forecast to soar in the coming years as governments crack down on vehicle pollution and carmakers step up their investments in electric models. Batteries are the most expensive part of electric vehicles, and their affordability is key to the take-up of the technology. Lithium-ion battery cell prices fell about 60 percent in the five years to 2016 as larger-scale production made them cheaper to make. In September, Reuters reported that Volkswagen was moving to secure long-term supplies of cobalt for the group's electric vehicle plans, but its talks with cobalt producers in November ended without a supply deal. Lee said that although Hyundai saw the need to develop batteries in-house, it still relied on outside suppliers due to a lack of economies of scale to secure raw materials. It aimed to release vehicles powered by solid-state lithium batteries by about 2020, promising greater range and safety than existing lithium-ion units. Japanese rival Toyota also has announced a similar schedule for the development of vehicles powered by new, potentially revolutionary solid-state batteries. In addition to hybrids and battery-powered vehicles, Hyundai was "coordinating" with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles over hydrogen cars propelled by electricity generated from fuel cells, Lee added.

Human waste can be reused as hydrogen for Hyundai Tucson FCEV

Here's the recipe: separate the water out of some sewage, leaving the biosolids behind. Then pipe those solids into airless tanks and let some microbes go to town. These bugs release a gas (roughly 60 percent methane, 40 percent CO2) which you can burn to power the plant where you're doing all this work but remember to send some of the methane to a tri-generation machine that leaves you with electricity, heat and hydrogen. It might sound a bit complicated, but this process is working in prototype form at the Orange County Sanitation District's Fountain Valley waste facility in California, and hydrogen car drivers in the area - including those of the upcoming Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell CUV - can even power their rides from the end product. UC Irvine's National Fuel Cell Research Center's Jack Brouwer developed the process and he says reusing waste to move cars, "smells like money." Hyundai will soon start leasing the H2 CUV for $499 a month ($2,999 down) for 36 months, including free hydrogen refueling and Hyundai's Valet Maintenance. The Korean automaker says it has had a surprising number of people express an interest in the vehicle. We wonder if a waste-powered hydrogen station will make fuel cell technology more or less appealing. Read more details over at the Korea Herald. Featured Gallery 2015 Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell: LA 2013 View 19 Photos News Source: Korea Herald Green Hyundai Technology Emerging Technologies Hydrogen Cars tucson