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2016: The year of the autonomous-car promise

About half of the news we covered this year related in some way to The Great Autonomous Future, or at least it seemed that way. If you listen to automakers, by 2020 everyone will be driving (riding?) around in self-driving cars. But what will they look like, how will we make the transition from driven to driverless, and how will laws and infrastructure adapt? We got very few answers to those questions, and instead were handed big promises, vague timelines, and a dose of misdirection by automakers. There has been a lot of talk, but we still don't know that much about these proposed vehicles, which are at least three years off. That's half a development cycle in this industry. We generally only start to get an idea of what a company will build about two years before it goes on sale. So instead of concrete information about autonomous cars, 2016 has brought us a lot of promises, many in the form of concept cars. They have popped up from just about every automaker accompanied by the CEO's pledge to deliver a Level 4 autonomous, all-electric model (usually a crossover) in a few years. It's very easy to say that a static design study sitting on a stage will be able to drive itself while projecting a movie on the windshield, but it's another thing entirely to make good on that promise. With a few exceptions, 2016 has been stuck in the promising stage. It's a strange thing, really; automakers are famous for responding with "we don't discuss future product" whenever we ask about models or variants known to be in the pipeline, yet when it comes to self-driving electric wondermobiles, companies have been falling all over themselves to let us know that theirs is coming soon, it'll be oh so great, and, hey, that makes them a mobility company now, not just an automaker. A lot of this is posturing and marketing, showing the public, shareholders, and the rest of the industry that "we're making one, too, we swear!" It has set off a domino effect – once a few companies make the guarantee, the rest feel forced to throw out a grandiose yet vague plan for an unknown future. And indeed there are usually scant details to go along with such announcements – an imprecise mileage estimate here, or a far-off, percentage-based goal there. Instead of useful discussion of future product, we get demonstrations of test mules, announcements of big R&D budgets and new test centers they'll fund, those futuristic concept cars, and, yeah, more promises.

Recharge Wrap-up: Electric Bayliner conversion, China considers EV mandates

An electric mobility enthusiast converted a Bayliner boat to electric power. Using 10 Tesla modules to build a 32-kWh battery pack, Scott Masterson's 2016 Bayliner 175 now uses an electric motor in place of the original 3.0-liter Mercruiser engine. With a top speed of about 53 mph and a range of about 25 miles, Masterson can enjoy a nice cruise on the water without the accompanying gas fumes. He says the conversion wasn't all that complicated, and it took him about three months of part-time work. Check it out in the video above, and read more at Electrek. Audi's updates to the 2017 A3 include the E-Tron plug-in hybrid. Inside the car, it will likely get Audi's "Virtual Cockpit" instrument display. The MMI infotainment system will be updated, with available Apple Carplay and Android Auto functionality. Slight changes to the headlights, taillights, and grille will make up the bulk of the exterior visual changes. Its powertrain will remain unaltered from the 2016 model, including its 83 MPGe combined rating and 16 miles of all-electric driving range. Read more at Green Car Reports. Hyundai has delivered its first hydrogen-powered car to Quebec. The Centre de Gestion de l'Equipment Roulant (Rolling Stock Management Center), which manages the province's government fleets, took delivery of a 2016 Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell. It is leased in partnership with the University of Quebec's Hydrogen Research Institute of Trois-Rivieres, where the vehicle will be refueled. Read more from Green Car Congress. China is considering mandates for cleaner cars similar to those imposed by California. Unlike its current subsidy-based incentives, China could potentially require automakers to either produce or import more electric vehicles or purchase carbon credits from automakers that do. A draft of the legislation from the National Development and Reform Commission would fine non-compliant automakers at five times the price of the credits. "Without question, this will be good for the industry and will promote the development of all types of clean-energy vehicles," says China Association of Automobile Manufacturers Deputy Secretary General Ye Shengji. Compliance would be voluntary for smaller automakers. Read more from Automotive News.

Goes Both Ways: Free-trade pact sees South Korean brands losing share at home

France has been vocal, but not alone, in noting the rise of the South Korean automakers in Europe. The signing of a free-trade pact in 2011 between South Korea and the EU, along with the especially value-conscious buyers in a crisis-stricken Europe, has seen market share increases measuring in the double digits for Hyundai and Kia - analysts expect 14-percent growth for the two in 2012.
A report in Bloomberg has found that there's pain at the other end, too: The pact more than halved import tariffs on European cars headed to South Korea to 3.2 percent, and prices are now close enough to domestic offerings for more South Koreans to pay the premium for foreign luxury nameplates and the cachet they confer. Products sold by the five domestic automakers hogged 92 percent of the market last year, and sales have dropped 5.2 percent this year whereas import sales have risen by 24 percent. This will mark the first year that imports claimed ten percent of the market; compare that to 2002, when domestic market share in the world's 11th largest auto market was 99 percent.
The Germans are at the head of the arrow, counting for 65 percent of imported car sales, but every foreign maker has seen double-digit gains. Analysts think foreign makes could ultimately grab 15 percent of the market.