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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Japan could consolidate to three automakers by 2020

Sergio Marchionne might see his dream of big mergers in the auto industry become a reality, and an analyst thinks Japan is a likely place for consolidation to happen. Takaki Nakanishi from Jefferies Group LLC tells Bloomberg the country's car market could combine to just three or fewer major players by 2020, from seven today. "To have one or two carmakers in a country is not only natural, but also helpful to their competitiveness," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "Japan has just too many and the resources have been too spread out. It's a natural trend to consolidate and reduce some of the wasted resources." Nakanishi's argument echoes Marchionne's reasons to push for a merger between FCA and General Motors. Automakers spend billions on research and development, but their competitors also invest money to create the same solutions. Consolidating could conceivably put that R&D money into new avenues. "In today's global marketplace, it is increasingly difficult for automakers to compete in lower volume segments like sports cars, hydrogen fuel cells, or electrified vehicles on their own," Ed Kim, vice president of Industry Analysis at AutoPacific, told Autoblog. Even without mergers, these are the areas where Japanese automakers already have partners for development. Kim cited examples like Toyota and Subaru's work on the BRZ and FR-S and its collaboration with BMW on a forthcoming sports car. Honda and GM have also reportedly deepened their cooperation on green car tech. After Toyota's recent buyout of previous partner Daihatsu, Nakanishi agrees with rumors that the automotive giant could next pursue Suzuki. He sees them like a courting couple. "For Suzuki, it's like they're just starting to exchange diaries and have yet to hold hands. When Toyota's starts to hold 5 percent of Suzuki's shares, this will be like finally touching fingertips," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "I absolutely do believe that we are not finished seeing consolidation in Japan," Kim told Autoblog. Rising development costs to meet tougher emissions regulations make it hard for minor players in the market to remain competitive. "The smaller automakers like Suzuki, Mazda, and Mitsubishi are challenged to make it on their own in the global marketplace. Consolidation for them may be inevitable." Related Video:

Why Acura should build a hybrid Integra successor using NSX tech

Yes, it sounds like a heresy. Yes, the Honda CR-Z was not a good hybrid sports car. Yes, we know the RSX officially replaced the Integra here (but was called the Integra in Japan). But, no, we're not crazy. Well, maybe a little bit. But hear us out. At the moment Acura is a bit of an unfocused mess. Its line-up is thoroughly uninspiring, save for its $200,000 NSX supercar – a great mid-engined supercar with an impressive, performance-oriented hybrid AWD system. And yet few people would draw a line connecting Acura's other SH-AWD hybrids, the RLX Sport Hybrid and MDX Sport Hybrid, to the NSX. The first NSX told the world that Acura built cars with world-class technology and performance, and the Integra carried it to people with normal pocketbooks. Since the new NSX communicates a similar message as its forbearer, so too would a new Integra. Now making an entry-level sports car with hybrid technology is tricky business. As we already established, the Honda CR-Z was a colossal flop. It's balance was all off: heavy, expensive, and not very sporty – and it didn't even get very good fuel economy. However, Honda and Acura can learn from these mistakes. First, to keep costs in check, Acura can borrow from Honda's ever-improving parts bin. It would logical to borrow the excellent Civic coupe platform – something the old Integra did as well. It could also attach the proposed hybrid powertrain to the upcoming Si turbocharged four-cylinder. Some added cost will be unavoidable, since the batteries and motors will have to go somewhere. That will cost some engineering dollars, and inflate the price tag a bit. However, since Acura is a premium brand, it has some wiggle room to bump up the price without losing buyers. Weight is another potential issue this hypothetical hybrid will face, and was one of the chief complaints with the CR-Z. Looking at the RLX and the RLX Sport Hybrid, the hybrid bits weigh about an extra 340 pounds. That's not insignificant, but added to the turbocharged Civic EX-T coupe's 2,900 pound curb weight, you would have a car that would weigh 3,240 pounds. That's comparable to the very fun Mustang EcoBoost. As long as Acura keeps the weight under 3,500 pounds, the brand should have an entertaining coupe on its hands. The final piece of the puzzle is to make sure it isn't compromised. Every bit of hybrid tech in the NSX is there for performance. It helps eliminate turbo lag, and it improves acceleration and handling.