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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Sales incentive growth clustered around brands with few CUVs, trucks

While it's arguably been around the longest, the dominance of the four-door sedan has been under threat for many years. As a further sign of the hurtin' that SUVs and crossovers have put on today's four-doors, a new report from Automotive News points to the increasing use of incentives by brands reliant on cars and light on CUVs and pickups.
Honda, Toyota, Volkswagen and Kia have all been stung by double-digit increases in their incentives-to-transaction price ratio, according to AN, which cites data from TrueCar. Honda's ratio is up 14 percent, while Toyota, VW and Kia are up 18, 15 and 19 percent, respectively.
"Most of the incentive growth we have seen is in product segments with low demand - midsized or large sedans," TrueCar CEO John Krafcik told AN. "As this trend goes on, the brands with three-sedan strategies are going to be in worse shape on incentive spending than the crossover brands."

Autoblog Minute: New Civic, FCA UAW Agreement, Frankfurt

FCA reaches a tentative agreement with the UAW, Honda reveals the all-new 2016 Civic, and the Frankfurt Motor Show dazzles us again. Autoblog senior editor Greg Migliore reports on the Weekly Recap edition of Autoblog Minute. Show full video transcript text [00:00:00] FCA reaches a tentative agreement with the UAW, Honda reveals the all-new 2016 Civic, and the Frankfurt Motor Show dazzles us again. I'm senior editor Greg Migliore and this is your Autoblog Minute Weekly Recap. FCA reached a tentative labor agreement with UAW leadership. The major focus of the new deal reportedly includes: the eventual elimination of the two-tier pay scale [00:00:30] and pooling worker health care. Now that a leadership agreement is in place, the deal will be sent to FCA's rank-and-file. FCA has about 36,000 hourly employees. We got a first look at the interior and exterior of the 10th-generation Civic. Honda expects the new sedan to dominate the C-segment when it hits dealerships later this fall. Civic coupe, five-door hatchback, Si and Type R will all come later. The 2015 Frankfurt Motor Show is in the books and there was a lot of news to get excited about. [00:01:00] Porsche introduced a fully electric concept car in the Mission E. If they make this car, Porsche could give Tesla nightmares. We also saw SUVs from Jaguar and Bentley. There were two beautiful Italian convertibles from Ferrari and Lamborghini. Meanwhile, Mercedes introduced a concept of their own in the IAA - a vehicle that experiments with adaptable aerodynamics. Those are the highlights from the week that was. Be sure to check out my full recap this Saturday. Plus we'll have some added insight on General Motors' deal to [00:01:30] avoid federal prosecution. For Autoblog, I'm Greg Migliore. Autoblog Minute is a short-form video news series reporting on all things automotive. Each segment offers a quick and clear picture of what's happening in the automotive industry from the perspective of Autoblog's expert editorial staff, auto executives, and industry professionals. UAW/Unions Frankfurt Motor Show Bentley Chrysler Ferrari Honda Jaguar Lamborghini Mercedes-Benz Porsche Rolls-Royce Tesla Convertible SUV Concept Cars Electric Supercars Autoblog Minute Videos Original Video porsche mission e concept