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Honda poised for growth, Detroit to hold steady, Car Wars study says

The automotive industry is expected to keep booming in the US over the next several years, but the train might start running out of steam in the long term, according to 2015's Car Wars report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy. The forecast focuses on changes between the 2016 and 2019 model years, and the latest trends appear similar in some cases to the past predictions. Sales are expected to keep growing and reach a peak of 20 million in 2018, according to the Detroit Free Press. The expansion is projected to come from a quick pace of vehicle launches, with an average of 48 introductions a year – 26 percent more than in 1996. Crossovers are expected to make up a third of these, maintaining their strong popularity. However, Murphy predicts a decline, as well. By 2025, total sales could fall to around 15 million units. As of May 2015, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this year stands at 17.71 million. Like last year, Honda is predicted to be a big winner in the future thanks to products like the next-gen Civic. "Honda should be the biggest market share gainer," Murphy said when presenting the report, according to Free Press. Meanwhile, in a situation similar to Car Wars from 2012, a lack of many new vehicles is expected to cause a drop for Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan. Based on this forecast, Ford, General Motors, and FCA US will all generally maintain market share for the coming years. The report does make some future product predictions, though. The next Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra might come in 2019, which is earlier than expected. Also, Lincoln could get a Mustang-based coupe for 2017, a compact sedan for 2018 and an Explorer-based model in 2019, according to the Free Press. Related Video: News Source: The Detroit Free PressImage Credit: Nam Y. Huh / AP Photo Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Lincoln Car Buying fca us

Pony-car sales war: Mustang vs. Camaro vs. Challenger [UPDATE]

Update: An earlier version of this story misstated the 2015 Mustang's weight when compared with previous models. Additionally, we have added comments from Chevrolet in the text. The Ford Mustang has blown past the Chevy Camaro as America's best-selling pony car, and in June, it wasn't even close. The 'Stang outsold the Camaro 11,719 to 8,611 cars. The Camaro remained ahead of the Dodge Challenger, which sold 6,845 units. Even though the Camaro did post an 11.5-percent sales improvement in June, the competition is arguably stronger than at anytime since the 1970s muscle-car era. The Mustang's sales leapt a whopping 53.6 percent, while the Challenger saw a gain of 56 percent. Several factors are weighing down Camaro sales, including its lame duck status. Chevy is launching a new generation of the Camaro this year that's more than 200 pounds lighter, offers a new turbo four-cylinder engine option, and has a nicer interior than the outgoing model. Put simply: wait a few months and you can get a better car. It's also unlikely Chevy will jack up the price much, as it's historically kept the Camaro within reach of everyday enthusiasts. While Chevy fans wait in anticipation for their new sports car, Ford and Dodge have downshifted. The new Mustang, which went on sale last year, is faster and more sophisticated than its predecessor. It also offers a 2.3-liter EcoBoost four-cylinder, which Ford has credited for the Mustang's recent uptick and makes up 36 percent of the car's sales, Ford analyst Erich Merkle said. View 17 Photos June's performance allowed the Mustang to widen its sales gap with the Camaro this year. Through the first five months, Ford sold 68,290 Mustangs, a 54.4-percent increased compared with 2014. Chevy sold 42,593 Camaros, an 8.7-percent decrease. The Challenger – long the No. 3 pony car in sales volume – has seen its sales surge 41 percent this year to 37,011 units. Spokesman Monte Doran said Chevy expected that 2015 would be a "relatively soft year" for the Camaro. "Mustang is taking advantage of years' worth of pent-up demand for an independent rear suspension," he said. "When Camaro introduced an IRS, in 2009, it helped make us the best-selling performance car in America.

Buy Ford and GM stock and make 5%

Want to make a five-percent return when 10-year treasuries are paying around two percent? Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have solid balance sheets, strong cash flow, solid earnings, and growing markets. By all accounts, they are smart investments. But the market is down on these stocks. Why? Some of the stupid excuses include: They are cyclical companies The Detroit 3 have lost 3.5 million in sales since 2000 The world economy is shaky GM recently filed for bankruptcy Their markets have peaked They haven't changed their ways Let's take these criticisms one by one: They Are Cyclical Companies Yes, they are cyclical. Every company is cyclical. Every industry is cyclical. Some more than others, but not every company is immune from swings in the market. Banks used to be 'non-cyclical' leader, not anymore. Airline stocks are just as cyclical as auto stocks, yet they are trading at multiples greater than the auto industry. Why? And what accounts for the irrational stock price for Tesla (TSLA)? At least Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) make money and have positive cash flows. In fact, both companies have a net positive cash position. They have more cash on hand than liabilities. Auto sales in the United States hit a record 17.5 million vehicles in 2015. During the Great Recession, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) cut their break even points to 10 million vehicles per year. Anything above an annual U.S. volume of 10 million vehicles is profit. And what a profit they make. Sales of Ford's F-150 continues to be the best-selling vehicle in the United States for over 30 years. Detroit 3 Have Lost 3.5 million in Sales Since 2000 Automotive News reports General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler (FCA) have lost a combined 3.5 million vehicles sales since 2000. So how can they be making more money? Two big reasons – Fleet Sales and the UAW. Fleet Sales The Detroit 3 used to own car rental companies to keep their factories running. Ford owned Hertz (HTZ), General Motors owned all of National Car Rental and 29 percent of Avis, and Chrysler, the forerunner to Fiat Chrysler (FCA), used to own Thrifty Car Rental and Dollar Rent-A-Car. The Detroit 3 owned these rental companies to have a place to sell their bad product and keep their factories running. These were low margin sales, and in many cases, were money losers for the Detroit 3. They no longer own auto rental companies.