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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Ford and Mercedes join Renault in French emissions investigation

The French government is investigating certain models from Ford, Mercedes-Benz, and Renault because they allegedly produce more nitrogen oxide than the country's pollution rules allow, according to Automotive News, citing a French newspaper. After VW's emissions scandal, French regulators began checking more vehicles for evidence of defeat devices and excessive real-world pollution. According to Automotive News, the Mercedes S350 allegedly showed inconsistent results across these tests, and a Ford C-Max had NOx levels five times over the limit. The Renault Captur crossover, Espace, and an unnamed utility vehicle also had results that were too high. The French testing for this investigation includes an on-road emissions check that's not part of the EU's normal evaluations, which some automakers claim is unfair. "Unofficial on-road testing has varying conditions and can produce significantly different results," a Ford of Europe spokesman told Automotive News. Renault representatives met with French officials on January 18 to explain the situation. The company later submitted a plan to recall 15,800 examples of the diesel Captur, and said it would offer a voluntary software upgrade for about 700,000 other vehicles, according to Automotive News. Representatives from Ford and Mercedes will meet with the government soon, too. Renault's stock price plunged last week after investors heard that French regulators searched three of the automaker's sites as part of the emissions investigation. The stockholders feared an environmental scandal like the one currently embroiling Volkswagen. There's one major difference – as of now, there's no evidence Renault equipped any of the polluting models with defeat devices. Related Video:

Ford's first PHEV in Europe could be C-Max

Ford could start selling a plug-in hybrid in Europe pretty soon, according to at least one of its executives. Whether it's willing to do so is another story. But if the market perks up, so will the company. The automaker can "quickly" develop a plug-in hybrid version of its Mondeo, the sister car to the Ford Fusion, Automotive News Europe says, citing Ford executive Uli Koesters. The subject of Ford selling plug-in hybrids in Europe is more vital than ever since Volkswagen recently started selling its first PHEV (a Golf) there. VW will also debut a Passat PHEV next year. Koesters was less certain about whether there was sufficient European demand to warrant a production PHEV from Ford. Europe's biggest-selling plug-in hybrid through the first half of the year was the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. That model, according to JATO Dynamics, moved almost 9,000 units through June. Toyota sold almost 4,300 Prius Plug-in Hybrids in Europe during that time period. And we can't be sure Ford's first European PHEV will be the Modeo/Fusion, either. In fact, Ford's first plug-in hybrid for Europe is more likely to be the C-Max, John Gardiner, a Ford spokesman in Europe, told AutoblogGreen. He would only say that it would be sold "in selected markets soon," without being more specific. Ford's two PHEVs in the US have been selling well this year. Through September, sales of the Fusion Energi PHEV almost tripled to 9,323 units, while Ford C-Max Energi PHEV sales were up 51 percent to 6,486 units.