1998 Ford Explorer on 2040-cars

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Big electric trucks won't save the planet, says the NYT

When The New York Times decides that an issue is an issue, be prepared to read about it at length. Rarely will a week passes these days when the esteemed news organization doesn’t examine the realities, myths and alleged benefits and drawbacks of electric vehicles, and even The Atlantic joins in sometimes. That revolution, marked by changes in manufacturing, consumer habits and social “consciousness,” may in fact be upon us. Or it may not. Nonetheless, the newspaper appears committed to presenting to the public these pros and cons. In this recently published article titled, “Just How Good for the Planet Is That Big Electric Pickup Truck?”—wow, thatÂ’s a mouthful — the Times focuses on the “bigness” of the current and pending crop of EVs, and how that impacts or will impact the environment and road safety. This is not what news organizations these days are fond of calling “breaking news.” In October, we pointed to an essay in The Atlantic that covered pretty much the same ground, and focused on the Hummer as one particular villain, In the paper and online on Feb. 18, the Times' Elana Shao observes how “swapping a gas pickup truck for a similar electric one can produce significant emissions savings.” She goes on: “Take the Ford F-150 pickup truck compared with the electric F-150 Lightning. The electric versions are responsible for up to 50 percent less greenhouse gas emissions per mile.” But she right away flips the argument, noting the heavier electric pickup trucks “often require bigger batteries and more electricity to charge, so they end up being responsible for more emissions than other smaller EVs. Taking into consideration the life cycle emissions per mile, they end up just as polluting as some smaller gas-burning cars.” Certainly, itÂ’s been drummed into our heads that electric cars donÂ’t run on air and water but on electricity that costs money, and that the public will be dealing with “the shift toward electric SUVs, pickup trucks and crossover vehicles, with some analysts estimating that SUVs, pickup trucks and vans could make up 78 percent of vehicle sales by 2025." No-brainer alert: Big vehicles cost more to charge. And then thereÂ’s the safety question, which was cogently addressed in the Atlantic story. Here Shao reiterates data documenting the increased risks of injuries and deaths caused by larger, heavier vehicles.

Deep discounts — $12K, $13K, $16K — are fueling a pickup price war

Heavy discounts of up to $16,000 per vehicle are fueling a "truck war" among full-size pickups sold in the United States by the Detroit Three, a Reuters analysis shows. Strong U.S. sales this year of the highly profitable big trucks have helped offset lagging passenger car sales. But it is not clear how much of the truck demand is linked directly to ample factory incentives and dealer discounts, or how far sales might decline without those subsidies. A Reuters survey of Ford, General Motors Co's Chevrolet and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles's Ram truck dealers across the United States indicates stores are offering deep discounts the country's bestselling full-size pickup trucks. "The walls are not crashing down on full-size trucks," said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions in Chester Springs, Pennsylvania. Detroit-based automakers want to keep cranking out their high-margin trucks, he added, and "giving up a little of the profit is the cheapest way to do it." Stores are offering discounts of up to $12,000 on the 2018 Ford F-150, which remains the best-selling vehicle in the country, recording more than 80,000 sales in May. Discounts run up to $13,000 on the 2018 Chevrolet Silverado and as high as $16,000 on the Ram 1500. Average transaction prices for full-size pick-ups range from around $42,000 to $45,000, industry analysts and automakers say. All three companies are spending furiously - GM and Fiat Chrysler to help sell off carryover 2018 trucks to prepare for redesigned 2019 models, and Ford to sustain its long-held sales crown. A supplier fire that temporarily shut down production of the F-150 last month "changed the game," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive in Troy, Michigan said. The supply halt nudged Ford's crosstown rivals "to ratchet up incentives on the current models to go after weakness at Ford," he said. Deals advertised on the companies' official websites range from rebates and low-interest loans to ultra-cheap lease rates, but they are not telling the whole story. Ford, for instance, advertises a $2,000 rebate and a $500 financing credit on sales of certain F-150 models. But James Collins Ford in Louisville, Kentucky, is offering discounts of up to $12,215 on the 2018 F-150 XLT SuperCrew 4x4. The price cuts are even steeper at a number of GM and Fiat Chrysler dealers. Quirk Chevrolet is selling the 2018 Silverado 1500 Double Cab at $13,000 off sticker.

Ford to build next F-150, outgoing model concurrently?

Ford is rumored to be considering concurrent production for old and new F-150 models in a bid to minimize supply chain disruptions and inventory. Automotive News is reporting that the Blue Oval will build both the current F-150 and its replacement, which we showed you testing just last month, side by side for about half a year before switching over entirely to next-generation production.
As IHS Automotive analyst Mike Jackson told AN, "In order to ramp up, you have to retool...and that means you have to take capacity offline." Building both models alongside could allow Ford to cope with the still strong demand for the current F-150, while populating dealer supplies and working out supply chain kinks for the new model before making a full-time switch.
A loss of capacity when demand is so strong, even for a short period, could spell bad news for Ford, which nets an estimated 90 percent of its global profit on pickups and large SUVs. As AN states, Ford produces the F-150 in both Kansas City, Missouri and Dearborn, Michigan, which allows it to maintain some degree of flexibility in production. The new F-150 is expected to arrive at the 2014 North American International Auto Show as a 2015 model, with a design inspired by the Atlas Concept first shown at the Detroit Auto Show last January.