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TRANSLOGIC 147: CES 2014 Autonomous Vehicles

We head back to CES in Las Vegas to check on the progress of autonomous vehicles in 2014. We go hands-free on the highway with Audi, narrowly avoid a collision with Ford and hear all about BMW's drifting driverless car. But first we take a ride on Induct's self-driving Navia shuttle.

2015 Ford F-150 spied in the rain

Standing as quite a contrast from the spy shots of the 2015 Ford Mustang we saw earlier today, our spies also sent along these pictures of the next-generation F-150 pickup out testing in its (heavily camouflaged) full prototype body. Much of the new truck's design is hidden under the bulky coveralls, but we expect a lot of its new lines to be inspired by the Atlas concept that debuted at the 2013 Detroit Auto Show.
Perhaps the biggest unknown surrounding the new F-150 is what, exactly, its body will be made of. Earlier reports have suggested that lightweight aluminum materials may be used throughout, offering a serious reduction in weight versus previous models. But Ford engineers will need to be careful, though, as they need to keep a tight rein on costs while preserving class-competitive (if not class-leading) towing and payload capacity.
On the powertrain front, the new F-150 will undoubtedly carry on with EcoBoost engines, and we'd bet on a normally aspirated V8 as well. A diesel option hasn't been confirmed, but we wouldn't be surprised to see one some time in the truck's lifecycle. Mum's the word on when the production F-150 will be revealed, but our best guess is that we'll see it at the 2014 Detroit Auto Show.

Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.