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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Are you the next Ford Edge? [UPDATE]

What looks to be the next Ford Edge has been leaked in an apparent corporate Powerpoint presentation deck. Despite the thumbnail image's blurry and pixelated quality, it appears as if the next generation crossover will be staying close to its current aesthetic despite an all-new front clip with redesigned grille, headlamps, and lower fascia with integrated fog lights.
The upscale-minded Blue Oval CUV is due for a redesign in 2015, having just received a mid-cycle refresh for 2011. It isn't clear what changes lie beneath the new skin, either in terms of mechanicals or interior refinement, but we suspect Ford will be looking to put some distance between the next generation model and the new Escape, which is suddenly much more car-like and not that far off the more expensive Edge in terms of overall size, power or refinement.
UPDATE: Substituted clearer image - thanks, Sean!

Ford moving medium-duty F-Series production from Mexico to Ohio

A few more Ford trucks will be built in the US in the near future with news that production of the F-650 and F-750 medium-duty trucks will move from Mexico to Ford's Ohio Assembly Plant in Avon Lake, OH. Ford hasn't confirmed a precise timeline for the move, but The Detroit News claims the Blue Oval will make the shift later this year or in early 2015.
As Ford spokesperson Mike Levine reminded us, back in 2011, Ford announced in an investor release that it would shift production "after the [Ohio] plant stops current production of the Ford E-Series vans." According to that release, the Ohio factory will also receive $128 million in upgrades to build the new trucks, plus the F53 motorhome chassis and F59 commercial chassis.