1996 Ford Bronco 4x4 Eddie Bauer W/ Fisher Snowplow on 2040-cars

Auto blog

Buy Ford and GM stock and make 5%

Want to make a five-percent return when 10-year treasuries are paying around two percent? Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have solid balance sheets, strong cash flow, solid earnings, and growing markets. By all accounts, they are smart investments. But the market is down on these stocks. Why? Some of the stupid excuses include: They are cyclical companies The Detroit 3 have lost 3.5 million in sales since 2000 The world economy is shaky GM recently filed for bankruptcy Their markets have peaked They haven't changed their ways Let's take these criticisms one by one: They Are Cyclical Companies Yes, they are cyclical. Every company is cyclical. Every industry is cyclical. Some more than others, but not every company is immune from swings in the market. Banks used to be 'non-cyclical' leader, not anymore. Airline stocks are just as cyclical as auto stocks, yet they are trading at multiples greater than the auto industry. Why? And what accounts for the irrational stock price for Tesla (TSLA)? At least Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) make money and have positive cash flows. In fact, both companies have a net positive cash position. They have more cash on hand than liabilities. Auto sales in the United States hit a record 17.5 million vehicles in 2015. During the Great Recession, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) cut their break even points to 10 million vehicles per year. Anything above an annual U.S. volume of 10 million vehicles is profit. And what a profit they make. Sales of Ford's F-150 continues to be the best-selling vehicle in the United States for over 30 years. Detroit 3 Have Lost 3.5 million in Sales Since 2000 Automotive News reports General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler (FCA) have lost a combined 3.5 million vehicles sales since 2000. So how can they be making more money? Two big reasons – Fleet Sales and the UAW. Fleet Sales The Detroit 3 used to own car rental companies to keep their factories running. Ford owned Hertz (HTZ), General Motors owned all of National Car Rental and 29 percent of Avis, and Chrysler, the forerunner to Fiat Chrysler (FCA), used to own Thrifty Car Rental and Dollar Rent-A-Car. The Detroit 3 owned these rental companies to have a place to sell their bad product and keep their factories running. These were low margin sales, and in many cases, were money losers for the Detroit 3. They no longer own auto rental companies.

Ford Transit is America's new best-selling van

The Ford Motor Company's sales in December ticked up 1.2 percent in the US, and the automaker was down 0.5 percent for 2014. But the Blue Oval looks like it might have a real winner on its hands when it comes to its new Transit van. The recently introduced line nearly doubled its numbers during the month by delivering 10,030 units for an annual total of 20,488 examples sold. It also gave the fullsize model the title of America's bestselling van for December. Those 10,000 sales put the Transit head and shoulders above all of its competitors in the crowded commercial van market. Second place went to the Chevrolet Express with 5,611 sales in December, and the ancient Ford E-Series was third with 5,256 moved. The rest of the segment was somewhat lower, with the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter at 3,288 units for the month, Ram ProMaster at 3,036, GMC Savana with 1,725 and Nissan NV at 1,554. December also marked the second month in a row for the Transit to beat out the E-Series in sales. However, its predecessor still won overall for the year with 103,263 units moved in 2014, but it enjoyed a full calendar year of sales. According to Ford spokesperson Mike Levine, the smaller Transit Connect had its best sales month ever for December too, and the automaker has been among the sales leaders in the van segment for the last 36 years. "Clearly, sales show we're best at meeting our customers' needs," said Levine to Autoblog, who touted the model's results on Twitter and cited the Transit's numerous configurations as its biggest selling point. Ford's latest van has other plusses, too, say analysts. "The one thing the Transit has going for it is a low base price relative to the competition. Compare the base price of the Sprinter to the Transit and it is hands-down a Transit win," said Dave Sullivan, auto industry analyst at AutoPacific, to Autoblog. Purely by model name, the Transit was also the bestselling van in November, with 4,851 deliveries. However, the Chevy Express had 4,478 sales, plus 716 more from the GMC Savana. Since these two are the same model beneath the skin, as a platform, they arguably took the title for that month. With a new year already here, the Transit has a new challenge to face. "2015 will be the year that the Transit has to leave the nest, because E-Series inventories will be close to zero and Transit will have to carry all the weight," said Sullivan.

Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.