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There's an impending shortage of new trucks in America's heartland

URBANDALE, Iowa — Jerry Bill is worried the novel coronavirus could hurt business at the Des Moines auto dealership he runs, but not because of a shortage of buyers for the big Ram pickups on his lot. "Our biggest issue will be if we don't get more inventory," said Bill, general sales manager of Stew Hansen Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ram, which sells around 2,700 new vehicles a year in Urbandale, a suburb of Iowa's capital Des Moines. After a drop in sales in April when consumers stayed home, Bill expects pickup truck sales to end May similar to where they were a year earlier. And if demand remains strong, Bill said he will run out of popular models in June. Fiat Chrysler began slowly restarting Ram truck assembly lines on Monday after a two-month shutdown. The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter at its sharpest pace since the Great Recession of 2007-2009 because of lockdown measures aimed at slowing the spread of the coronavirus. Economists warn the second quarter will be much worse. Still, far from the lockdowns of states like New York, Michigan or Ohio, dealerships like Stew Hansen have provided FCA and Detroit rivals General Motors and Ford a rare bright spot: strong sales of pickup trucks in America's heartland. Overall U.S. sales of cars and light trucks crashed to the weakest pace in 50 years last month. But sales of big Detroit brand pickups, particularly in southern and western states less affected by the outbreak, significantly outperformed the market, industry executives and analysts said. Pickup trucks are one of the most profitable automotive segments in the world. They account for a huge portion of the Detroit automakers' profits and formed a huge lure for Peugeot, which expects to merge with FCA by early 2021. The pressure is now on to boost pickup truck production and send vehicles to dealers in parts of the country with dwindling supplies. That is particularly true for GM, which is running short of certain truck models after losing 40 days of production to a strike last fall. "If you don't have what someone wants, they can choose to go to another brand," said Cox Automotive analyst Michelle Krebs. 'Easiest swap ever' Detroit automakers in March rolled out large discounts — such as interest-free loans for seven years — to keep vehicles rolling off dealer lots.

Ford recalls 90,736 vehicles due to engine valve issue

Ford will recall 90,736 vehicles as engine intake valves in the vehicles may break while driving, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said on Saturday. The recall impacts certain 2021-2022 Bronco, F-150, Edge, Explorer, Lincoln Nautilus, and Lincoln Aviator vehicles equipped with either a 2.7L or 3.0L Nano EcoBoost engine, the NHTSA said. According to documents posted by NHTSA and sourced from the automaker, "The engine intake valves may break while driving, which can result in engine failure and a loss of drive power." Following an investigation that started in January, 2022, Ford found 22 instances where "the engine intake valves fractured and fell into the combustion chamber of the engine causing catastrophic engine damage." The automaker's analysis continues: "Ford identified that the potential root cause of the failures was engine intake valve failure due to valves that exceeded the designed specification for hardness, were brittle, and more likely to fracture. Ford determined that this was due to the supplier’s grinding processes and the sensitivity of the intake valve material to grinding processes that were not within control specifications. The intake valve material was changed for vehicles produced after October 31, 2021." Fixing the problem will require replacement of the entire engine. "Dealers will inspect each vehicle to determine its cumulative number of engine cycles. For vehicles that do not meet the engine cycle threshold, dealers will accumulate high revolutions per minute (rpm) engine cycles per a service procedure. Engines will be replaced on vehicles that do not pass the engine cycle accumulation," Ford says.

Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.