2013 Fiat 500 on 2040-cars

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China-FCA merger could be a win-win for everyone but politicians

NEW YORK — Fiat Chrysler boss Sergio Marchionne has said the car industry needs to come together, cut costs and stop incinerating capital. So far, his words have mostly fallen on deaf ears among competitors in Europe and North America. But it appears Marchionne has finally found a receptive audience — in China. FCA shares soared Monday after trade publication Automotive News reported the $18 billion Italian-American conglomerate controlled by the Agnelli family rebuffed a takeover from an unidentified carmaker from the Chinese mainland. As ugly as the politics of such a combination may appear at first blush, a transaction could stack up industrially, and perhaps even financially. A Sino-U.S.-European merger would create the first truly global auto group. That could push consolidation to the next level elsewhere. Moreover, China is the world's top market for the SUVs that Jeep effectively invented, so it might benefit FCA financially. A combo would certainly help upgrade the domestic manufacturer; Chinese carmakers have gotten better at making cars, but struggle to build global brands, and they need to develop export markets. Though frivolous overseas shopping excursions by Chinese enterprises are being reined in by Beijing, acquisitions that support the modernization and transformation of strategic industries still receive support, and the government considers the automotive industry to be strategic. A purchase of FCA by Guangzhou Automobile, Great Wall or Dongfeng Motors would probably get the same stamp of approval ChemChina was given for its $43 billion takeover of Syngenta. What's standing in the way? Apart from price (Automotive News said FCA's board deemed the offer insufficient) there's the not-insignificant matter of politics. Even as FCA shares soared, President Donald Trump interrupted his vacation to instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to look into whether to investigate China's trade policies on intellectual property. Seeing storied Detroit brands like Jeep, Chrysler, Ram and Dodge handed off to a Chinese company would provoke howls among Trump's economic-nationalist supporters. It might not play well in Italy, either, to see Alfa Romeo and Maserati answering to Wuhan instead of Turin — though Automotive News said they might be spun off separately. Yet, as Morgan Stanley observes, "cars don't ship across oceans easily," and political considerations increasingly demand local manufacture of valuable products.

Trucks, SUVs drive U.S. October new vehicle sales

DETROIT — Major automakers posted mixed U.S. new vehicle sales in October on Wednesday, though America's love affair with high-margin pickup trucks and SUVs remained in full bloom as larger, pricier vehicles fared better than passenger cars. Auto industry publication WardsAuto put the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for light vehicle sales in October at a robust level of 18 million units. But after a long boom cycle, carmakers are still ill-prepared for the slight decline in sales anticipated for full-year 2017 and have taken too few steps to trim production, said Doug Mehl, a partner in consultancy A.T. Kearney's automotive practice. "When you make a new vehicle, you have volume assumptions tagged to it, and who wants to be the guy who says, 'I'm going to make less of this really cool model'?" Mehl said. "But eventually the market is the reality, and it's going to force companies one way or other here." General Motors GM reported a sales drop of 2.2 percent for the month, with consumer sales down 6.6 percent. But sales of high-margin pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers all rose. GM also cut its inventory of unsold vehicles — a source of concern for the market — slightly. The automaker has worked to reduce its volume of excess inventory, including through significant production shutdowns in the third quarter. GM had said its inventory would rise in October. "We are heading into the fourth quarter with good momentum, thanks to a strong U.S. economy and very strong pickup and crossover sales," said Kurt McNeil, GM vice president for U.S. sales operations. GM slightly reduced consumer discounts as a percentage of average transaction prices to 13.5 percent, from 13.7 percent in the third quarter. Industry experts believe consumer discounts above 10 percent of the average transaction price are unhealthy as they erode resale values and are unsustainable in the long term. Consultants J.D. Power and LMC said last week that based on preliminary October sales numbers, discounts have exceeded 10 percent in 15 of the past 16 months. Ford The U.S. auto industry posted record sales of 17.55 million vehicles in 2016. New sales received a strong boost in September as consumers replaced vehicles damaged in southeast Texas by Hurricane Harvey the previous month. Full-year 2017 sales are expected to be slightly lower than 2016.

Chrysler stays IPO until 2014

There will not be a Chrysler IPO in 2013. Fiat, according to a report from Forbes, has announced that it will not be able to make the American brand's initial public offering before the end of the year, saying that the short, five-week window that makes up the rest of 2013 is "not practicable."
Not surprisingly, the issue with the Chrysler IPO is the same as it's always been - a disagreement between parent company Fiat, which owns 58.5 percent of the Chrysler Group and a UAW healthcare trust, which owns 41.5 percent. Fiat wants to buy out the UAW VEBA healthcare trust, which is responsible for shouldering retiree healthcare costs, but the two sides are hung up on an actual price tag for the remaining two-fifths of the company.
The original idea saw an IPO as a way of setting a fair market price for the remaining shares, although it's not entirely clear what broke down and led to a delay of the IPO plan. As Forbes points out, by waiting until 2014, Chrysler could be risking a cool-off in the IPO market, which could mean less money in its pocket when the automaker finally goes public.