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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

Ferrari IPO could come any day now

According to Bloomberg, Fiat Chrysler Automotive Sergio Marchionne told reporters at the Toronto Global Forum that the Ferrari IPO could come any day now. "We are days away from filing the prospectus," said Marchionne, who declined to confirm whether rumors of involvement from UBS Group AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Goldman Sachs Group were accurate. In addition to an expected filing in New York, Marchionne hinted that a secondary filing could take place in Milan, Italy. Although the FCA Chief Executive didn't offer any expected sum for Ferrari, he had previously suggested that an IPO for the iconic Italian brand could be worth $1 billion, ringing the registers to the tune of 10 percent of the company's $11 billion valuation. According to Bloomberg, that potential sum is significantly higher than its own internal figures indicate after taking a poll of analysts who we assume must know a heck of a lot more about such things than we do. Considering how close we apparently are to the actual filing, though, we probably won't have to wait long to find out. Another hot topic any time Sergio is the subject of reporter questioning is a potential merger with General Motors or another large, full-line automaker. It seems there aren't any new revelations to reveal on the consolidation front, though Marchionne told reporters there were no plans to mount a hostile takeover of GM or any "other, less optimal" partners. Related Video: News Source: BloombergImage Credit: STR/AFP/Getty Earnings/Financials Chrysler Ferrari Fiat Sergio Marchionne FCA

Italy reportedly guarantees $7.1 billion loan to Fiat Chrysler

ROME — Italy has approved a decree offering state guarantees for a 6.3-billion euro ($7.1 billion) loan to Fiat Chrysler's (FCA)  Italian unit, a source said, paving the way for the largest crisis loan to a European carmaker. The source said Italy's audit court had signed off on the decree, in a final step of what had been a lengthy and contested process to get the loan approved. The court's approval follows an earlier endorsement by the economy ministry. "The audit court authorized the decree," said a source close to the matter, asking not to be named because of its sensitivity. FCA's Italian division has tapped Rome's COVID-19 emergency financing schemes to secure a state-backed, three-year facility to help the group's operations in the country, as well as Italy's car sector in which about 10,000 businesses operate, weather the crisis triggered by the coronavirus emergency. The loan will be disbursed by Italy's biggest retail bank Intesa Sanpaolo, which has already authorized it pending the approval of guarantees the government will provide on 80% of the sum through export credit agency SACE. The request for state support has sparked controversy because FCA is working to merge with French rival PSA and the holding for the Italian-American carmaker is registered in the Netherlands. FCA's global brands include Fiat, Jeep, Dodge and Maserati. It was not immediately clear what conditions, if any, Italy has set as part of the guarantees and whether they would affect FCA's planned 5.5 billion euro ($6.2 billion) extraordinary dividend, which is a key element in the merger with PSA. FCA, whose shares were down 0.5% by 0908 GMT, had no immediate comment.   Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Peugeot Italy