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China-FCA merger could be a win-win for everyone but politicians

NEW YORK — Fiat Chrysler boss Sergio Marchionne has said the car industry needs to come together, cut costs and stop incinerating capital. So far, his words have mostly fallen on deaf ears among competitors in Europe and North America. But it appears Marchionne has finally found a receptive audience — in China. FCA shares soared Monday after trade publication Automotive News reported the $18 billion Italian-American conglomerate controlled by the Agnelli family rebuffed a takeover from an unidentified carmaker from the Chinese mainland. As ugly as the politics of such a combination may appear at first blush, a transaction could stack up industrially, and perhaps even financially. A Sino-U.S.-European merger would create the first truly global auto group. That could push consolidation to the next level elsewhere. Moreover, China is the world's top market for the SUVs that Jeep effectively invented, so it might benefit FCA financially. A combo would certainly help upgrade the domestic manufacturer; Chinese carmakers have gotten better at making cars, but struggle to build global brands, and they need to develop export markets. Though frivolous overseas shopping excursions by Chinese enterprises are being reined in by Beijing, acquisitions that support the modernization and transformation of strategic industries still receive support, and the government considers the automotive industry to be strategic. A purchase of FCA by Guangzhou Automobile, Great Wall or Dongfeng Motors would probably get the same stamp of approval ChemChina was given for its $43 billion takeover of Syngenta. What's standing in the way? Apart from price (Automotive News said FCA's board deemed the offer insufficient) there's the not-insignificant matter of politics. Even as FCA shares soared, President Donald Trump interrupted his vacation to instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to look into whether to investigate China's trade policies on intellectual property. Seeing storied Detroit brands like Jeep, Chrysler, Ram and Dodge handed off to a Chinese company would provoke howls among Trump's economic-nationalist supporters. It might not play well in Italy, either, to see Alfa Romeo and Maserati answering to Wuhan instead of Turin — though Automotive News said they might be spun off separately. Yet, as Morgan Stanley observes, "cars don't ship across oceans easily," and political considerations increasingly demand local manufacture of valuable products.

Stellantis won't race to split electric vehicles from fossil fuel cars

MILAN - Stellantis is not considering splitting its electric vehicle (EV) business from its legacy combustion engine operation, its finance chief said on Thursday, as the carmaker presented above-expectation revenue data for the first quarter. Chief Financial Officer Richard Palmer told analysts he did not see huge benefits in the kind of separations pursued by rivals such as France's Renault and U.S. Ford. "We need to manage the company and the assets we have through this transition," he said. "There are benefits to having the cash flow being generated by the internal combustion business for the investments we need to make." Palmer said the group, formed by a merger last year of Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot maker PSA, was not averse to considering adjusting its structure "but we aren't anticipating any big changes." Palmer's comments came after the world's fourth largest carmaker said its net revenue rose 12% to 41.5 billion euros ($44.1 billion) in the January-March period, as strong pricing and the type of vehicles sold helped offset the impact of the semiconductor shortage on volumes. That topped analyst expectations of 36.9 billion euros, according to a Reuters poll. Milan-listed shares were up 0.5% by 1415 GMT, in line with Italy's blue-chip index. The impact of the chip crunch was evident in the decline in shipment figures which fell 12% in the quarter to 1.374 million vehicles. It was a similar story for Germany's BMW which posted higher revenues on Thursday and a decline in car sales. Riding the Recovery Stellantis, whose brands also include Citroen, Jeep and Maserati, confirmed its 2022 forecasts for a double-digit adjusted operating income margin, after 11.8% last year, and a positive cash-flow despite supply and inflationary headwinds. Morgan Stanley analysts said after the results that Stellantis had better management than many peers and benefited from its significant exposure to a stronger U.S. economy and a European recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. They also said it was less affected by a slowing Chinese economy. Palmer said it was important for the group to maintain double-digit margins and keep delivering positive cash flows. "A 12% increase in revenue with a 12% decrease in volumes indicates a very strong performance on price and mix, which augurs well for our margin performance," he said. He said semiconductor supply problems were expected to ease this year with continued improvements in 2023.

China's Great Wall confirms its interest — in Jeep, or all of FCA

HONG KONG/SHANGHAI — Chinese automaker Great Wall Motor reiterated its interest in Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV on Tuesday, but said it had not held talks or signed a deal with executives at the Italian-American automaker. China's largest sport utility vehicle manufacturer made a direct overture to Fiat Chrysler on Monday, with an official saying the company was interested in all or part of FCA, owner of the Jeep and Ram truck brands. Automotive News first reported the news, quoting Great Wall Motor President Wang Fengying as saying she planned to contact FCA to discuss acquiring the Jeep brand specifically. Those comments sent FCA shares higher but also raised questions over the ability of China's seventh-largest automaker by sales to buy larger Western rival FCA, or even Jeep, which some analysts value at as much as one-and-a-half times FCA. Great Wall sought to dampen speculation on Tuesday. It confirmed it had studied Fiat Chrysler, but said there was "no concrete progress so far" and "substantial uncertainty" over whether it would eventually bid. "The company has not built any relationship with the directors of FCA nor has the company entered into any discussion or signed any agreements with any officer of FCA so far," the company said in an English-language stock exchange filing. It did not give further detail. Fiat Chrysler stock dipped on the statement on Tuesday. Great Wall said trading in its Shanghai-listed shares would resume on Wednesday after having been suspended. Fiat Chrysler declined to comment on Great Wall's statement. On Monday, it said it had not been approached and was fully committed to implementing its current business plan. FLUSHING OUT RIVALS? Great Wall Motor, which was early to spot China's love of SUVs, had revenue of $14.8 billion last year and sold 1.07 million vehicles - but that compares with FCA's 2016 revenue of 111 billion euros ($130.6 billion). Analysts said Great Wall would need to raise both debt and equity to complete any deal, meaning its chairman Wei Jianjun could lose majority control. One possible scenario, according to analysts at Jefferies, would see Wei keeping a roughly 30 percent stake, while Great Wall would raise $10-$14 billion in debt and $10 billion in equity - hefty for a group currently worth just $16 billion. Ultimately, politics could be the clincher.