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China-FCA merger could be a win-win for everyone but politicians

NEW YORK — Fiat Chrysler boss Sergio Marchionne has said the car industry needs to come together, cut costs and stop incinerating capital. So far, his words have mostly fallen on deaf ears among competitors in Europe and North America. But it appears Marchionne has finally found a receptive audience — in China. FCA shares soared Monday after trade publication Automotive News reported the $18 billion Italian-American conglomerate controlled by the Agnelli family rebuffed a takeover from an unidentified carmaker from the Chinese mainland. As ugly as the politics of such a combination may appear at first blush, a transaction could stack up industrially, and perhaps even financially. A Sino-U.S.-European merger would create the first truly global auto group. That could push consolidation to the next level elsewhere. Moreover, China is the world's top market for the SUVs that Jeep effectively invented, so it might benefit FCA financially. A combo would certainly help upgrade the domestic manufacturer; Chinese carmakers have gotten better at making cars, but struggle to build global brands, and they need to develop export markets. Though frivolous overseas shopping excursions by Chinese enterprises are being reined in by Beijing, acquisitions that support the modernization and transformation of strategic industries still receive support, and the government considers the automotive industry to be strategic. A purchase of FCA by Guangzhou Automobile, Great Wall or Dongfeng Motors would probably get the same stamp of approval ChemChina was given for its $43 billion takeover of Syngenta. What's standing in the way? Apart from price (Automotive News said FCA's board deemed the offer insufficient) there's the not-insignificant matter of politics. Even as FCA shares soared, President Donald Trump interrupted his vacation to instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to look into whether to investigate China's trade policies on intellectual property. Seeing storied Detroit brands like Jeep, Chrysler, Ram and Dodge handed off to a Chinese company would provoke howls among Trump's economic-nationalist supporters. It might not play well in Italy, either, to see Alfa Romeo and Maserati answering to Wuhan instead of Turin — though Automotive News said they might be spun off separately. Yet, as Morgan Stanley observes, "cars don't ship across oceans easily," and political considerations increasingly demand local manufacture of valuable products.

Certain Chrysler owners eligible for buyback program

Certain car owners whose Chrysler vehicles contain dangerous defects will soon have a way to get rid of their lemons without losing money. As part of an agreement with federal regulators, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles has agreed to buy back more than 500,000 vehicles susceptible to veering out of control without warning at above market-value prices. The deal mainly covers certain models of RAM trucks, the Dodge Dakota pickup and Dodge Durango SUV. Further, owners of more than 1.5 million Jeep Liberty and Grand Cherokees at heightened risk for lethal fires are eligible to trade in their vehicles at above market value or, alternately, get a gift certificate if they prefer to have repairs made. Chrysler has "a heavy responsibility to make sure the products they make are safe for the traveling public," said Mark Rosekind, administrator of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. "... Here, we are sending an unambiguous signal to industry that if you skirt the laws or violate the law, or don't live up to the responsibility that consumers expect, we are going to penalize you." The buy-back and trade-in options for motorists come as part of an unprecedented penalty NHTSA slapped against Chrysler for violating federal motor-vehicle safety laws. Chrysler will pay a $105 million fine, the highest ever levied by the regulatory agency. In addition to the buy-backs, Chrysler also agreed to an independent monitor for three years. Investigators had outlined problems in the company's conduct in 23 recalls that affected more than 11 million defect vehicles. As part of a consent-order agreement, Chrysler acknowledged it did not notify vehicle owners of recalls in an effective manner and did not notify NHTSA of safety problems. Though those recalls affected millions of drivers, the buy-back and trade-in options are only for a small portion of the vehicles involved. Because Chrysler struggled to fix the problem and no repair was apparent, Rosekind said the buy-backs are reserved "for customers who didn't have a remedy." Buy-backs are for trucks and SUVs affected by three recalls that occurred in 2013 (recalls 13V-038, 13V-527 and 13V-529), that addressed a rear-axle pinion nut that could come loose and cause a loss of vehicle control. Those recalls covered 579,228 vehicles, including 2009-2012 Ram 1500, 2500, 3500, 4500 and 5500 trucks, 2009-2012 Dodge Dakotas, 2009 Chrysler Aspen and the 2009 Dodge Durango.

EV cost burden pushing automakers to their limits, says Stellantis' CEO Tavares

DETROIT — Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares said external pressure on automakers to quickly shift to electric vehicles potentially threatens jobs and vehicle quality as producers struggle with EVs' higher costs. Governments and investors want car manufacturers to speed up the transition to electric vehicles, but the costs are "beyond the limits" of what the auto industry can sustain, Tavares said in an interview at the Reuters Next conference released Wednesday. "What has been decided is to impose on the automotive industry electrification that brings 50% additional costs against a conventional vehicle," he said. "There is no way we can transfer 50% of additional costs to the final consumer because most parts of the middle class will not be able to pay." Automakers could charge higher prices and sell fewer cars, or accept lower profit margins, Tavares said. Those paths both lead to cutbacks. Union leaders in Europe and North America have warned tens of thousands of jobs could be lost. Automakers need time for testing and ensuring that new technology will work, Tavares said. Pushing to speed that process up "is just going to be counter productive. It will lead to quality problems. It will lead to all sorts of problems," he said. Tavares said Stellantis is aiming to avoid cuts by boosting productivity at a pace far faster than industry norm. "Over the next five years we have to digest 10% productivity a year ... in an industry which is used to delivering 2 to 3% productivity" improvement, he said. "The future will tell us who is going to be able to digest this, and who will fail," Tavares said. "We are putting the industry on the limits." Electric vehicle costs are expected to fall, and analysts project that battery electric vehicles and combustion vehicles could reach cost parity during the second half of this decade. Like other automakers that earn profits from combustion vehicles, Stellantis is under pressure from both establishment automakers such as GM, Ford, VW and Hyundai, as well as start-ups such as Tesla and Rivian. The latter electric vehicle companies are far smaller in terms of vehicle sales and employment. But investors have given Tesla and Rivian higher market valuations than the owner of the highly profitable Jeep and Ram brands. That investor pressure is compounded by government policies aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions. The European Union, California and other jurisdictions have set goals to end sales of combustion vehicles by 2035.