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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

Fiat Chrysler and PSA boards sign off on merger

MILAN — The boards of French carmaker PSA, the owner of Peugeot, and Fiat Chrysler in separate meetings on Tuesday approved a binding agreement for a $50 billion merger, sources said. The two midsized carmakers announced plans six weeks ago for a tie-up to create the world's No. 4 carmaker and reshape the global industry. A merger is seen helping them deal with big challenges in the industry, including a global downturn in demand and the need to develop costly cleaner cars to meet looming anti-pollution rules. Both companies declined to comment. A source close to FCA had said earlier the two companies could formally announce the agreement early on Wednesday, followed by a conference call to explain further details later in the day. China's Dongfeng Motor Group, which now has a 12.2% equity stake in PSA, will have a reduced stake of around 4.5% in the merged group, two sources said, in a move that could help make regulatory approval easier. According to the deal approved by PSA's board on Tuesday, FCA's robot unit, Comau, will remain within the combined group rather than be spun off as was originally planned in October, the sources said. The new group will evaluate how to extract value from Comau. Ahead of the meetings, entities representing the Peugeot family, Etablissements Peugeot Freres (EPF) and FFP, unanimously approved a proposed memorandum of understanding for the planned merger, a source familiar with the situation said. FCA and PSA are expected to finalise a deal by the end of 2020 to create a group with 8.7 million annual vehicle sales, a source said. That would put it fourth globally behind Volkswagen AG, Toyota and the Renault-Nissan alliance. It was only six months ago that FCA abandoned merger talks with PSA's French rival Renault. FCA would gain access to PSA's more modern vehicle platforms, helping it meet tough new emissions rules, while Europe-focused PSA would benefit from FCA's profitable U.S. business featuring brands such as Ram and Jeep. However, the deal could still face close regulatory scrutiny, while governments in Rome, Paris and unions are all likely to be wary about potential job losses from a combined workforce of around 400,000. PSA's Carlos Tavares will be chief executive and FCA's John Elkann — the scion of Italy's Agnelli family, which controls FCA through their holding company Exor — chairman of the combined company.

Dodge, Jeep and Ram could soon be owned by Chinese automakers

For the past several years, Fiat Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne has made it widely known that the automaker he helms is up for grabs. First, he sent an email to GM CEO Mary Barra, who immediately refused to even discuss a merger. Later, Marchionne set his sights on Volkswagen. That too was swiftly rebuffed. It seemed like no global automaker was remotely interested in a partnership. Now, Automotive News reports that several Chinese automakers have come calling, only FCA isn't ready to answer. At least not yet. The news broke this morning that a major Chinese automaker had made an offer to purchase FCA for slightly above market value. FCA refused, saying the offer wasn't quite generous enough. It's unclear which automaker made the offer, but Automotive News says there's more than one interested party. FCA representatives have recently traveled to China to meet with Great Wall Motors, while Chinese representatives were seen at FCA corporate headquarters in Auburn Hills, Mich. The Chinese government has a lot of money invested in local automakers. It's putting pressure on these automakers to expand globally, including to the United States. As it stands, it's a matter of when a Chinese automaker will start selling cars here, not if. Purchasing an established automaker with a wide range of products and a huge dealer network would do wonders in giving the Chinese a foothold here. Sure, Geely owns Volvo, but a luxury automaker doesn't have nearly as much reach as a more mainstream company like FCA. This seems like the best case scenario for both a Chinese automaker looking to move into the U.S. and for FCA, at least from a business standpoint. The latter doesn't seem to have any other interested parties. It will be interesting to see how FCA would sell a deal like this to the public. We're not sure everyone will be happy with Dodge, Jeep and Ram falling under Chinese ownership. FCA didn't turn down the Chinese because they didn't like the idea. It turned down the offer because there wasn't enough money on the table. Related Video: News Source: Automotive News Earnings/Financials Alfa Romeo Chrysler Dodge Fiat Jeep RAM