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Buy Ford and GM stock and make 5%

Want to make a five-percent return when 10-year treasuries are paying around two percent? Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have solid balance sheets, strong cash flow, solid earnings, and growing markets. By all accounts, they are smart investments. But the market is down on these stocks. Why? Some of the stupid excuses include: They are cyclical companies The Detroit 3 have lost 3.5 million in sales since 2000 The world economy is shaky GM recently filed for bankruptcy Their markets have peaked They haven't changed their ways Let's take these criticisms one by one: They Are Cyclical Companies Yes, they are cyclical. Every company is cyclical. Every industry is cyclical. Some more than others, but not every company is immune from swings in the market. Banks used to be 'non-cyclical' leader, not anymore. Airline stocks are just as cyclical as auto stocks, yet they are trading at multiples greater than the auto industry. Why? And what accounts for the irrational stock price for Tesla (TSLA)? At least Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) make money and have positive cash flows. In fact, both companies have a net positive cash position. They have more cash on hand than liabilities. Auto sales in the United States hit a record 17.5 million vehicles in 2015. During the Great Recession, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) cut their break even points to 10 million vehicles per year. Anything above an annual U.S. volume of 10 million vehicles is profit. And what a profit they make. Sales of Ford's F-150 continues to be the best-selling vehicle in the United States for over 30 years. Detroit 3 Have Lost 3.5 million in Sales Since 2000 Automotive News reports General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler (FCA) have lost a combined 3.5 million vehicles sales since 2000. So how can they be making more money? Two big reasons – Fleet Sales and the UAW. Fleet Sales The Detroit 3 used to own car rental companies to keep their factories running. Ford owned Hertz (HTZ), General Motors owned all of National Car Rental and 29 percent of Avis, and Chrysler, the forerunner to Fiat Chrysler (FCA), used to own Thrifty Car Rental and Dollar Rent-A-Car. The Detroit 3 owned these rental companies to have a place to sell their bad product and keep their factories running. These were low margin sales, and in many cases, were money losers for the Detroit 3. They no longer own auto rental companies.

NHTSA closes investigation on 4.7M FCA power modules, no recall

FCA US hasn't had the best time with recalls as of late. Not only did the company recently agree to greater safety oversight and paid $105 million to the government, that came just days after hacking fears prompted a 1.4-million model recall campaign. However, a recent decision to close an investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration means that the automaker doesn't have to worry about another major recall possibly affecting 4.7 million vehicles, according to the agency's report (as a PDF). Last September, the Center for Auto Safety petitioned NHTSA to investigate an alleged problem with the totally integrated power module (TIPM) on these FCA US models. The group claimed that a fault with the component could cause a variety of maladies, including stalls, not starting, catching fire, unintended acceleration, and airbag non-deployment. At the time, it also submitted 70 cases where this had reportedly happened. According to NHTSA, "no valid evidence was presented in support of claims related to airbag non-deployment, unintended acceleration, or fire resulting from TIPM faults and these claims were found to be wholly without merit based on review of the field data and design of the relevant systems and components." The agency did find signs of an issue with the fuel pump relay in some Jeep Grand Cherokees and Dodge Durangos, but FCA US issued recalls for the problem in September 2014 and February 2015. Without anything else to go on, the Feds don't think it's worth investigating this topic any more.

Autoblog Minute: Marchionne seems prepared to lead FCA in takeover of GM

FCA CEO Sergio Marchionne wants industry consolidation but without any deal takers it seems as though he's ready to consider a hostile takeover. Autoblog's Chris McGraw reports on this edition of Autoblog Minute with commentary from Autoblog editor-in-chief Mike Austin. Show full video transcript text [00:00:00] It's no secret that FCA CEO Sergio Marchionne wants industry consolidation but without any deal takers it seems as though he's ready to consider a hostile takeover. I'm Chris McGraw and this is your Autoblog Minute. Marchionne is tired of waiting for the industry to get on board with his consolidation plan. In an interview with Automotive News Marchionne was quoted as saying, "it would be unconscionable not to force a partner." And when pushed further about the nature of any potential takeover plan the FCA chief had this to say: "Not hostile. There are varying degrees of hugs. I can hug you nicely, I can hug you tightly, I can hug you like a bear, I can really hug you. Everything starts with physical contact. Then it can degrade, but it starts with physical contact." Metaphor aside, Marchionne suggests his numbers for a GM-FCA merger are irrefutable, pointing to potential global earnings of a 30 billion dollars. Without a merger deal on the horizon we have to wonder if an FCA takeover of GM even possible. For more we go to Autoblog's Mike Austin: [Mike Austin Interview] Marchionne says GM won't take his phone calls, and while he admits a merger with GM would be a hard road to haul it's one he's still determined to travel. We'll continue to monitor the story as it develops. For Autoblog, I'm Chris McGraw. Autoblog Minute is a short-form video news series reporting on all things automotive. Each segment offers a quick and clear picture of what's happening in the automotive industry from the perspective of Autoblog's expert editorial staff, auto executives, and industry professionals. UAW/Unions Chrysler Fiat GM Autoblog Minute Videos Original Video