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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

Is it time for American carmakers to give up on dual-clutch transmissions? [w/poll]

Last week, in the midst of Detroit's first days seeking relief in Chapter 9 of the bankruptcy code, Automotive News contributor Larry P. Vellequette penned an editorial suggesting that American car companies raise the white flag on dual clutch transmissions and give up on trying to persuade Americans to buy cars fitted with them. Why? Because, Vellequette says, like CVT transmissions, they "just don't sound right or feel right to American drivers." (Note: In the article, it's not clear if Vellequette is arguing against wet-clutch and dry-clutch DCTs or just dry-clutch DCTs, which is what Ford and Chrysler use.) The article goes on to state that Ford and Chrysler have experimented with DCTs and that both consumers and the automotive press haven't exactly given them glowing reviews, despite their quicker shifts and increased fuel efficiency potential compared to torque-converter automatic transmissions.
Autoblog staffers who weighed in on the relevance of DCTs in American cars generally disagreed with the blanket nature of Vellequette's statement that they don't sound or feel right, but admit that their lack of refinement compared to traditional automatics can be an issue for consumers. That's particularly true in workaday cars like the Ford Focus and Dodge Dart, both of which have come in for criticism in reviews and owner surveys. From where we sit, the higher-performance orientation of such transmissions doesn't always meld as well with the marching orders of everyday commuters (particularly if drivers haven't been educated as to the transmission's benefits and tradeoffs), and in models not fitted with paddle shifters, it's particularly hard for drivers to use a DCT to its best advantage.
Finally, we also note that DCT tuning is very much an evolving science. For instance, Autoblog editors who objected to dual-clutch tuning in the Dart have more recently found the technology agreeable in the Fiat 500L. Practice makes perfect - or at least more acceptable.

Autoline streaming live from Detroit Auto Show right now

As you can already see, the Autoblog team is digging deep to bring you everything from the Detroit Auto Show media days today and tomorrow, with obsessive coverage of all of the new sheetmetal, hot concepts and industry news. But we're hardly alone in Cobo Hall, and our friend John McElroy and his Autoline team have fired up a live video webcast with interviews from the show floor that you can watch right now by scrolling below. The daily streaming broadcasts start at 1:00 PM Eastern today and tomorrow, with a large number of A-list executives, designers, and product planners from both domestic and foreign automakers are expected to sit in. Interviewees scheduled to appear include Al Gardner, President and CEO of Chrysler; David Zuchowski, brand-new President and CEO of Hyundai Motor America; Doug Scott, Truck Group Marketing Manager at Ford; and Peter Schreyer, President and Chief Design Officer at Kia. For the live feed and a full list of guests for both days, scroll below. Live broadcast by Ustream [Pop-out Chat Window] Day One Al Gardner, President and CEO, Chrysler Brand Ludwig Willisch, President and CEO, BMW of North America Doug Scott, Truck Group Marketing Manager, Ford Tim Mahoney, Chief Marketing Officer, Global Chevrolet Heiko Schmidt, Head of C-Class Product Planning, Mercedes-Benz USA Filip Brabec, Product Planning Manager, Audi of America Day Two Bob Ferguson, Senior Vice President, Global Cadillac Dave Zuchowski, President and CEO, Hyundai Motor America Mike Manley, President & CEO, Jeep Brand Peter Schreyer, President and Chief Design Officer, Kia Tom Kearns, Chief Designer, Kia Design Center America Jim Lentz, COO, Toyota Motor NA Tony Nicolosi, President & CEO, Volvo Cars North America Jose Munoz, Executive VP & Chairman, Nissan Americas Auto News Detroit Auto Show Audi BMW Chrysler Ford Kia Videos Detroit Autoblog 2014 Detroit Auto Show autoline Peter Schreyer