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Honda poised for growth, Detroit to hold steady, Car Wars study says

The automotive industry is expected to keep booming in the US over the next several years, but the train might start running out of steam in the long term, according to 2015's Car Wars report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy. The forecast focuses on changes between the 2016 and 2019 model years, and the latest trends appear similar in some cases to the past predictions. Sales are expected to keep growing and reach a peak of 20 million in 2018, according to the Detroit Free Press. The expansion is projected to come from a quick pace of vehicle launches, with an average of 48 introductions a year – 26 percent more than in 1996. Crossovers are expected to make up a third of these, maintaining their strong popularity. However, Murphy predicts a decline, as well. By 2025, total sales could fall to around 15 million units. As of May 2015, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this year stands at 17.71 million. Like last year, Honda is predicted to be a big winner in the future thanks to products like the next-gen Civic. "Honda should be the biggest market share gainer," Murphy said when presenting the report, according to Free Press. Meanwhile, in a situation similar to Car Wars from 2012, a lack of many new vehicles is expected to cause a drop for Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan. Based on this forecast, Ford, General Motors, and FCA US will all generally maintain market share for the coming years. The report does make some future product predictions, though. The next Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra might come in 2019, which is earlier than expected. Also, Lincoln could get a Mustang-based coupe for 2017, a compact sedan for 2018 and an Explorer-based model in 2019, according to the Free Press. Related Video: News Source: The Detroit Free PressImage Credit: Nam Y. Huh / AP Photo Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Lincoln Car Buying fca us

Vans aren't glamorous, but they're key to EU blessing FCA-PSA merger

MILAN/PARIS — Their silhouettes don't stir dreams of adventure like a sports car or trendy SUV, but vans are a rare source of profit for European carmakers, which is why EU regulators are focused on them as they decide whether to back an industry mega-merger. European competition regulators are worried that Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot maker PSA's proposed merger may harm competition in small vans. With a total of 755,000 vans sold last year in Europe, the combined Fiat Chrysler (FCA) and PSA would get a market share of around 34%, based on industry data, more than double that of Renault and Ford, with shares around 16% each. Volkswagen and Daimler follow with market shares of 12% and 10% respectively. "Commercial vans are important for individuals, SMEs and large companies when it comes to delivering goods or providing services to customers," European Union competition chief Margrethe Vestager said in a statement, announcing an in-depth investigation into the proposed merger. "They are a growing market and increasingly important in a digital economy where private consumers rely more than ever on delivery services." Dario Duse, a managing director at consultancy firm AlixPartners, said demand for vans was not based on people's disposable income, as for cars, but rather on GDP and industrial trends, and in particular the logistics industry, where big players such as Amazon or DHL operate. "Logistics is a business segment which is having a significant growth, for several reasons including e-commerce, where you need efficient and agile vans for interurban and city deliveries," he said. "LCVs (light commercial vehicles) may recover faster than passengers cars in the post-COVID-19 phase." Sales of vans up to 3.5 tonnes in Europe amounted to 2.2 millions vehicles last year, compared to 15.8 million for passenger cars, according to data provided by the European Auto Industry Association (ACEA). The light commercial vehicles (LCVs) market may be secondary in terms of volumes, but it remains highly profitable in an industry where margins are constantly under pressure. Margins are generally higher than on passenger cars, up to 5-10 additional percentage points, AlixPartners says. "With LCVs you don't have to fulfill a series of consumer expectations that drive additional complexity and costs, such as for interiors. LCV customers are more rational and business driven," Duse said. And while electrification in heavy trucks is complicated, it might come sooner for LCVs.

Four-horse race opens up for next Chrysler-Fiat CEO

There are some companies that could change leadership overnight and still remain more or less the operations that they are. But some have built themselves up around one central figure. Just ask Carlos Tavares, who found he couldn't escape the long shadow of Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn. Tavares recently left to find his own limelight. But Ghosn isn't the only executive who presides over two disparate automakers on opposite ends of the globe.
Having built up Fiat and Chrysler around himself, we can hardly imagine either automaker getting along without Sergio Marchionne. But the day will come when the famously sweater-clad bigwig will step down. The pressing questions remain when when that day will come, and who will take his place. The only solid clues we have are in the statements made mostly by Marchionne himself, but those statements have been all over the place. When speaking to Automotive News in 2012, he said he would step down "no earlier than 2013, no later than 2015." But a year later, he had already seemingly changed his tune, indicating he could still be at the helm in 2016. Fiat chairman John Elkann seems to think Marchionne, 61, could and should stay on longer.