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GM, Ford, Honda winners in 'Car Wars' study as industry growth continues

General Motors' plans to aggressively refresh its product lineup will pay off in the next four years with strong market share and sales, according to an influential report released Tuesday. Ford, Honda, and FCA are all poised to show similar gains as the auto industry is expected to remain healthy through the rest of the decade. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch study, called Car Wars, analyzes automakers' future product plans for the next four model years. By 2020, 88 percent of GM's sales will come from newly launched products, which puts it slightly ahead of Ford's 86-percent estimate. Honda (85 percent) and FCA (84 percent) follow. The industry average is 81 percent. Toyota checks in just below the industry average at 79 percent, with Nissan trailing at 76 percent. Car Wars' premise is: automakers that continually launch new products are in a better position to grow sales and market share, while companies that roll out lightly updated models are vulnerable to shifting consumer tastes. Though Detroit and Honda grade out well in the study, many major automakers are clumped together, which means large market-share swings are less likely in the coming years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the industry will top out with 20 million sales in 2018 and then taper off, perhaps as much as 30 percent by 2026. Not surprisingly, trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers will be the key battlefield in the next few years, Car Wars says. FCA will launch a critical salvo in 2018 with a new Ram 1500, followed by new generations of the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra in 2019, and then Ford's F-150 for 2020, according to the study. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said the GM trucks could be pulled ahead even earlier to 2018, prompting Ford to respond. "This focus on crossovers and trucks is a great thing for the industry," Murphy said. Cars Wars looks at Korean (76 percent replacement rate) and European companies more vaguely (70 percent), but argues their slower product cadence and lineups with fewer trucks puts them in weaker positions than their competitors through 2020. Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Featured Gallery 2016 Chevrolet Silverado View 11 Photos Image Credit: Chevrolet Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota study FCA

Dodge, Jeep and Ram could soon be owned by Chinese automakers

For the past several years, Fiat Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne has made it widely known that the automaker he helms is up for grabs. First, he sent an email to GM CEO Mary Barra, who immediately refused to even discuss a merger. Later, Marchionne set his sights on Volkswagen. That too was swiftly rebuffed. It seemed like no global automaker was remotely interested in a partnership. Now, Automotive News reports that several Chinese automakers have come calling, only FCA isn't ready to answer. At least not yet. The news broke this morning that a major Chinese automaker had made an offer to purchase FCA for slightly above market value. FCA refused, saying the offer wasn't quite generous enough. It's unclear which automaker made the offer, but Automotive News says there's more than one interested party. FCA representatives have recently traveled to China to meet with Great Wall Motors, while Chinese representatives were seen at FCA corporate headquarters in Auburn Hills, Mich. The Chinese government has a lot of money invested in local automakers. It's putting pressure on these automakers to expand globally, including to the United States. As it stands, it's a matter of when a Chinese automaker will start selling cars here, not if. Purchasing an established automaker with a wide range of products and a huge dealer network would do wonders in giving the Chinese a foothold here. Sure, Geely owns Volvo, but a luxury automaker doesn't have nearly as much reach as a more mainstream company like FCA. This seems like the best case scenario for both a Chinese automaker looking to move into the U.S. and for FCA, at least from a business standpoint. The latter doesn't seem to have any other interested parties. It will be interesting to see how FCA would sell a deal like this to the public. We're not sure everyone will be happy with Dodge, Jeep and Ram falling under Chinese ownership. FCA didn't turn down the Chinese because they didn't like the idea. It turned down the offer because there wasn't enough money on the table. Related Video: News Source: Automotive News Earnings/Financials Alfa Romeo Chrysler Dodge Fiat Jeep RAM

EV cost burden pushing automakers to their limits, says Stellantis' CEO Tavares

DETROIT — Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares said external pressure on automakers to quickly shift to electric vehicles potentially threatens jobs and vehicle quality as producers struggle with EVs' higher costs. Governments and investors want car manufacturers to speed up the transition to electric vehicles, but the costs are "beyond the limits" of what the auto industry can sustain, Tavares said in an interview at the Reuters Next conference released Wednesday. "What has been decided is to impose on the automotive industry electrification that brings 50% additional costs against a conventional vehicle," he said. "There is no way we can transfer 50% of additional costs to the final consumer because most parts of the middle class will not be able to pay." Automakers could charge higher prices and sell fewer cars, or accept lower profit margins, Tavares said. Those paths both lead to cutbacks. Union leaders in Europe and North America have warned tens of thousands of jobs could be lost. Automakers need time for testing and ensuring that new technology will work, Tavares said. Pushing to speed that process up "is just going to be counter productive. It will lead to quality problems. It will lead to all sorts of problems," he said. Tavares said Stellantis is aiming to avoid cuts by boosting productivity at a pace far faster than industry norm. "Over the next five years we have to digest 10% productivity a year ... in an industry which is used to delivering 2 to 3% productivity" improvement, he said. "The future will tell us who is going to be able to digest this, and who will fail," Tavares said. "We are putting the industry on the limits." Electric vehicle costs are expected to fall, and analysts project that battery electric vehicles and combustion vehicles could reach cost parity during the second half of this decade. Like other automakers that earn profits from combustion vehicles, Stellantis is under pressure from both establishment automakers such as GM, Ford, VW and Hyundai, as well as start-ups such as Tesla and Rivian. The latter electric vehicle companies are far smaller in terms of vehicle sales and employment. But investors have given Tesla and Rivian higher market valuations than the owner of the highly profitable Jeep and Ram brands. That investor pressure is compounded by government policies aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions. The European Union, California and other jurisdictions have set goals to end sales of combustion vehicles by 2035.