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Buy Ford and GM stock and make 5%

Want to make a five-percent return when 10-year treasuries are paying around two percent? Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have solid balance sheets, strong cash flow, solid earnings, and growing markets. By all accounts, they are smart investments. But the market is down on these stocks. Why? Some of the stupid excuses include: They are cyclical companies The Detroit 3 have lost 3.5 million in sales since 2000 The world economy is shaky GM recently filed for bankruptcy Their markets have peaked They haven't changed their ways Let's take these criticisms one by one: They Are Cyclical Companies Yes, they are cyclical. Every company is cyclical. Every industry is cyclical. Some more than others, but not every company is immune from swings in the market. Banks used to be 'non-cyclical' leader, not anymore. Airline stocks are just as cyclical as auto stocks, yet they are trading at multiples greater than the auto industry. Why? And what accounts for the irrational stock price for Tesla (TSLA)? At least Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) make money and have positive cash flows. In fact, both companies have a net positive cash position. They have more cash on hand than liabilities. Auto sales in the United States hit a record 17.5 million vehicles in 2015. During the Great Recession, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) cut their break even points to 10 million vehicles per year. Anything above an annual U.S. volume of 10 million vehicles is profit. And what a profit they make. Sales of Ford's F-150 continues to be the best-selling vehicle in the United States for over 30 years. Detroit 3 Have Lost 3.5 million in Sales Since 2000 Automotive News reports General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler (FCA) have lost a combined 3.5 million vehicles sales since 2000. So how can they be making more money? Two big reasons – Fleet Sales and the UAW. Fleet Sales The Detroit 3 used to own car rental companies to keep their factories running. Ford owned Hertz (HTZ), General Motors owned all of National Car Rental and 29 percent of Avis, and Chrysler, the forerunner to Fiat Chrysler (FCA), used to own Thrifty Car Rental and Dollar Rent-A-Car. The Detroit 3 owned these rental companies to have a place to sell their bad product and keep their factories running. These were low margin sales, and in many cases, were money losers for the Detroit 3. They no longer own auto rental companies.

Chrysler files for IPO

Chrysler has had a lot of owners over the past few years alone, from Daimler to Cerberus to Fiat and the federal government. But it could be poised to gain some more before long. Like, a lot more.
The automaker has just announced that it has filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to issue an Initial Public Offering of common stocks. Chrysler hasn't revealed how many shares will be offered and at what price, however the shares in question will not come out of Fiat's approximate 60% majority shareholding but instead out of the 40% minority stock held by the UAW's VEBA retiree healthcare trust. Reports suggest that the IPO, which is being handled by JP Morgan, could encompass approximately 16% of Chrysler stock, initially valued at approximately $100 million.
Lest you think this is all part of Sergio Marchionne's grand plan to consolidate Chrysler and Fiat, the two auto groups over which he presides, think again. The filing, which still needs to be approved by the SEC, comes at the insistence of the UAW. Negotiations between Marchionne's management team and the union over Fiat's acquisition of the VEBA shares have stalled. If they manage to come to an agreement, however, the IPO would likely be taken off the table. So don't go calling your broker just yet, but you can analyze the official announcement below.

Marchionne backs off merger plans, could retire after 2018

FCA boss Sergio Marchionne is stepping back from plans to attempt a major auto industry merger like the oft-speculated deal with General Motors last year. According to Bloomberg, Marchionne now wants to grow his automaker through 2018, and then the 63-year-old could retire around the end of that year. Marchionne claims he received merger proposals last year, but he couldn't find an attractive enough partnership. "We went back to concentrate on the 2018 plan which would boost Fiat Chrysler's value and its position in a deal," he said to Bloomberg. He still believes that a big merger is possible, but "it will be someone else's duty," he said after previously hinting about possibly staying at FCA until 2020. Marchionne was clear that any chance for the GM merger was likely over. "I met Mary Barra less than a month ago in Washington," he told Bloomberg. "I don't think I will have another coffee with her. It won't happen again in the future." Now, the boss intends to spend the rest of his time at FCA building the automaker through its five-year plan, and his goal is to grow global deliveries to seven million units a year by 2018. To make that happen, the automaker will invest around $52 billion over that time to improve its brands' product slate. Marchionne began backtracking from the possible GM merger late in 2015 after it became clear that The General's board wasn't interested. Earlier in the year, he seemed more aggressive about the prospect by suggesting a hostile takeover with a bizarre metaphor about giving the company a hug. Related Video: News Source: BloombergImage Credit: Richard Drew / AP Photo Chrysler Fiat GM Sergio Marchionne FCA fca us