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America was the unexpected theme at the 2017 Detroit Auto Show thanks to Trump

President-elect Donald Trump was not in attendance at this year's Detroit Auto Show, but it sure seemed like he was the target audience for many of the press conferences and announcements surrounding the event. Several manufacturers chose to play up existing and future commitments to the US in general and American jobs specifically in their presentations to the press, and we're pretty sure that has everything to do with Trump's recent targeting of automakers on Twitter. To us, it seemed automakers were going on the offensive to try and preempt any future tweet-shaming for investing in auto manufacturing anywhere but the US. The pro-America sentiment started the week prior to the auto show, with Ford announcing that it would build several future electrified vehicles at its Flat Rock Assembly Plant in Michigan and also cancel a $1.6 billion factory planned for Mexico. Ford announced the two items on the same day, but the reality is that they likely have no relation to each other; the Mexican plant is being skipped because the company doesn't need the extra capacity to build the Ford Focus right now. Trump was still happy to share the news on Twitter. Then, on Sunday, FCA announced it would invest $1 billion in manufacturing plants in Ohio and Michigan to produce the new Jeep Wagoneer, Grand Wagoneer, and Wrangler-based pickup. It's not as though those potential new jobs were on their way out of the US, necessarily, but FCA took the opportunity to mention that plant upgrades at the Warren Truck Plant would allow the company to build Ram heavy duty trucks, which are currently assembled in Mexico, there. CEO Sergio Marchionne confirmed that Trump and his proposed tariffs had nothing to do with the decision. We certainly believe that, but we also have to believe that the timing of the release, positive outcome for America, and zero gain for Mexico were all orchestrated. Again, Trump sent out a victory tweet as if this had been his doing. Ford then used its press conference at the show on Monday to reiterate the plans for Flat Rock and also confirm that the Ford Bronco and Ranger nameplates will be returning to the US market, and that both will be built at a plant in Michigan. Announcements of manufacturing locations are usually aimed at the UAW, which certainly has a stake in these things, but again this one was broadcast to the auto show crowd in general.

Fiat-Chrysler alliance in jeopardy due to Pentastar's IPO filing?

The four-year relationship between Fiat and Chrysler has thus far been beneficial for both automakers, but it has also proven to be a complicated battle between Sergio Marchionne and the United Auto Workers - the latter controlling the remaining 41.5 percent of Chrysler. With the recent filing for a US IPO, it looks like Marchionne and the UAW appear to be playing a billion-dollar game of chicken, with both sides far apart on how much the union's shares are worth. If it comes down to Chrysler's remaining stake being publicly traded, it could act to drive a wedge between the two companies.
According to Bloomberg, Fiat's chairman John Elkann says "if the IPO will take place, there will be two companies, and that's different than having a single one." Now, we're not great at math, but this sounds like the complete opposite of the full merger that Marchionne has been pushing for since taking the helm at Chrysler. Bloomberg notes that the UAW's shares should be worth around $5.6 billion, but Fiat could end up paying as little as $4.9 billion for Fiat to gain full control of Chrysler. A story by The Detroit News points out that Marchionne's "alleged low-balling" is just the latest hurdle the Auburn Hills-based automaker must overcome as its ownership is being fought over for the fourth time in 15 years.

PSA shares rise following FCA's breakup with Renault

Shares in Groupe PSA, parent company of automakers Peugeot, Citroen and the DS brand, rose on Thursday as analysts considered the possibility that Fiat Chrysler could turn back to PSA after withdrawing its $35 billion merger offer for Renault. "Both parties have acknowledged the need for scale or [mergers and acquisitions] and may pursue other opportunities. If Nissan was an obstacle (to an FCA-Renault deal) PSA-FCA discussions could resume," wrote brokerage Jefferies. Back in March at the Geneva Motor Show, rumors started swirling that PSA was interested in a potential merger with FCA. Mike Manley, who took over at the helm of Fiat Chrysler following the death of Sergio Marchionne, had indicated a willingness to look into potential partnership options. Of course, that was all before FCA proposed a merger with Renault — with that deal now off the table, attention naturally turns back to PSA, which is also based in France. "We expect both shares to react negatively but see FCA having wider strategic options and Renault shares more downside risk near-term," said Jefferies. According to Reuters, PSA shares were up 1.5% at the time this was published, making it the top-performing stock on France's benchmark CAC-40 Index. Renault saw its shares slump 7%. Shares for FCA fell 3% in early trading on the Milan Stock Exchange. Considering that FCA said in its statement confirming the withdraw of its merger offer with Renault that "political conditions in France do not currently exist for such a combination to proceed successfully," we have to wonder how keen the company is to begin negotiations with another French automaker like PSA. Those thoughts were similarly voiced by Bernstein Research analyst Max Warburton, who said (via Forbes), "Expect PSA to rise on unrealistic hopes it may be FCA's next date." Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Mitsubishi Nissan Citroen Peugeot Renault FCA renault-nissan