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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

May 2016: FCA wins, Ford and GM stumble on weak car volumes

The May 2016 sales numbers are in, and it looks as though FCA is getting some vindication for boldly cancelling two slow-selling car models. Meanwhile, Ford saw overall sales dip and GM's May volume took a big dive versus the same month in 2015. While Marchionne's decision to axe the Chrysler 200 and Dodge Dart has drawn criticism as being short-sighted, it's working for FCA so far. Although the Dart and 200 aren't out of production yet and no capacity has been shifted to crossover or trucks, May's numbers show that the emphasis on Jeep and Ram models makes sense right now. FCA's US sales rose 1 percent last month compared to May 2015, putting the year-to-date total at 955,186 vehicles, an increase of 6 percent compared to the same period last year. Standouts included the Jeep Renegade, Compass, and Patriot, and the Fiat 500X. Ram pickup sales were down 3 percent. And your fun fact is that Alfa Romeo sales were up precisely 10 percent, for a total of 44 4Cs sold versus 40 in the same month last year. At FoMoCo, the Ford brand took a hit to the tune of 6.4 percent from May 2015 to 2016, registering 226,190 sales last month. Lincoln showed improvement on its modest numbers, going from 9,174 to 9,807, a 6.9 percent increase. Overall, Ford was down 5.9 percent for the month to 235,997; despite the slump, year-to-date total Ford sales are up 4.2 percent to 1,112,939. Strong sellers included Escape, Expedition, F-Series, and Transit - big stuff. Most small and/or efficient models (Fiesta, Focus, Fusion, C-Max) saw sales slides. Fusion sales were also down, likely due to effects of model changeover to the freshened 2017 model. Ford has promised four new crossovers and SUVs by 2020 and if things keep trending this way the company will be able to sell them, but things could change in the next four years. GM saw the worst of it for domestic brands. Retail and fleet sales were down for each of the four divisions, with the May 2016 total dropping 18 percent to 240,450 vehicles. GM's year-to-date sales are down 5.0 percent in 2016 to 1,183,705. Both the Sierra and Silverado were down significantly, and the majority of Chevy, Buick, GMC, and Cadillac nameplates saw sales decreases, with both small cars and larger utilities included. Not even big stuff could help GM this month, it seems. We'll have more on the rest of the industry's May sales as those figures trickle in.

2018 Autoblog Technology of the Year finalists

After months of prepping and several days of testing, we narrowed the field for Autoblog's 2018 Tech of the Year award to the Nissan Rogue with ProPilot Assist semi-autonomous driving system, the Lexus LC 500h and its new hybrid powertrain, and the Chevy Colorado ZR2 and its trick Multimatic spool-valve off-road shocks. Three very different cars with very different technologies duking it out for the award. Look for news of our winner at the 2018 Detroit Auto Show. We hand out this award every year to the technology or feature that we feel moves the bar forward for the automotive industry. Read more here on how our testing process works. We discuss, debate and count up score sheets, judging each vehicle and technology on a few different criteria. Is its purpose noteworthy? Does it work well? Does it advance the industry? The Nissan Rogue with ProPilot Assist was actually a prototype, as the technology will first debut in the 2018 Nissan Leaf. Still, we're here to test the tech and not the car. ProPilot Assist combines adaptive cruise control system combined with lane-keeping assistance. The system uses sonar, radar and a number of cameras for some light semi-autonomous driving and enhanced safety. While these systems aren't new individually, Nissan's system is affordable, intuitive, and coming to a mainstream product — democratizing the tech in a novel way, if you will. That's why it's here. The Lexus LC 500h uses a new powertrain that Lexus has dubbed the Multi-Stage Hybrid System. Basically it combines two types of transmissions — a CVT and a four-speed automatic — in a single unit mated to a naturally aspirated V6. That's complex and unorthodox technology, and Lexus engineered it to give drivers the efficiency of a CVT without sacrificing driving enjoyment. The package is subtle, working in the background to create a nearly seamless driving experience. It's engaging in a way most other hybrids can only dream of. The fact that it's wrapped in such gorgeous sheetmetal only makes things better. The Multimatic spool valve shocks in the Chevy Colorado ZR2 might seem low-tech compared to ProPilot Assist and the Lexus Multi-Stage Hybrid, but they represent a completely novel application of a technology that several years ago was so expensive that it was reserved for top-tier race cars. Like the LC 500h, these shocks really change your perception of how a vehicle like this should drive.