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GM's Oshawa plant may close after Camaro production moves

Most of the time, when vehicle production is moved from one assembly plant to another, it spells bad news for the former. While General Motors won't go so far as to say its Oshawa, Ontario factory, which is losing the Chevrolet Camaro to the Lansing Grand River plant, is in trouble, analysts seem to think the factory's days are numbered. Forecasts for the facility are far from positive. The loss of the Camaro this year, combined with GM's targeted shutdown of a single-shift assembly line responsible for the fleet-only Chevy Impala Limited and the Equinox crossover is a bad enough omen. But with AutoForecast Solutions CEO Joe McCabe telling The Detroit News that the plant's other two products, the Cadillac XTS and Buick Regal, aren't likely to stick around beyond 2017, things look decidedly grim at Oshawa. "There is a fairly strong chance that the plant could close," Jeff Schuster, senior VP of forecasting for LMC Automotive, told The Detroit News. That doesn't mean that Unifor, Canada's auto union, and the Canadian government are going to let the factory die without a fight. And with the latter chipping in $10 billion as part of GM's 2009 bailout, you might think it has a degree of leverage in the situation. A meeting between the government and the Detroit Three at the 2015 North American International Auto Show revealed that Oshawa is already a topic of conversation. "We made it very clear that we would like to see an indication on the future of Oshawa sooner, in particular because the timing is very challenging for our supply chain to be able to adjust to potentially future orders or changes, but also to know that there are going to be future opportunities at Oshawa," Ontario's Minister of Economic, Development, Employment and Infrastructure Brad Duguid told The Detroit News. "Bottom line: It's time they made a longer-term commitment here," Unifor President Jerry Dias said, echoing Duguid's statements. It's unclear if this sort of strong talk will be enough to save 3,300-plus employees, although based on the analysts' forecasts, we doubt it.

U.S. new-vehicle sales in 2018 rise slightly to 17.27 million [UPDATE]

DETROIT — Sales of new vehicles in the U.S. rose slightly in 2018, defying predictions and highlighting a strong economy. Automakers reported an increase of 0.3 percent over a year ago to 17.27 million vehicles. The increase came despite rising interest rates, a volatile stock market, and rising car and truck prices that pushed some buyers out of the new-vehicle market. Industry analysts and automakers said strong economic fundamentals pushed up sales and should keep them near historic highs in 2019. "Economic conditions in the U.S. are favorable and should continue to be supportive of vehicle sales at or around their current run rate," Ford Chief Economist Emily Kolinski Morris said after the company and other automakers announced their sales numbers Thursday. That auto sales remain near the 2016 record of 17.55 million is a testimonial to the strength of the economy, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. The job market, he said, has created new employment, and wage growth has accelerated. "That's fundamental to selling anything," he said. "If there are lots of jobs and people are getting bigger paychecks, they will buy more." The unemployment rate is 3.7 percent, a 49-year low. The economy is thought to have grown close to 3 percent last year, its best performance in more than a decade. Consumers, the main driver of the economy, are spending freely. The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate four times in 2018 but is only expected to raise it twice this year. Auto sales also were helped by low gasoline prices and rising home values, Zandi said. It all means that people are likely to keep buying new vehicles this year even as they grow more expensive. The Edmunds.com auto-pricing site estimates that the average new vehicle price hit a record $35,957 in December, about 2 percent higher than the previous year. It will be harder for automakers to keep the sales pace above 17 million because they have been enticing buyers for several years now with low-interest financing and other incentives, Zandi said. He predicts more deals in the coming year as job growth slows and credit tightens for higher-risk buyers. Edmunds, which provides content, including automotive tips and reviews, for distribution by The Associated Press, predicts that sales will drop this year to 16.9 million.

Chevy, Lincoln dealers say they still want sedans

Detroit automakers have famously turned their backs on sedans as they make the strategic bet to double down on money-making trucks and SUVs, but dealers for at least two American brands are giving the companies contrary signals. In separate recent interviews with leading national dealer councils for Chevrolet and Lincoln, Automotive News reports that both brands’ dealers still see a need for cars. The publication published a Q&A interview with Mike Bowsher, chairman of the Chevrolet National Dealer Council, who said Chevy dealers managed to hold onto market share last year despite the phase-out of the Cruze compact sedan and hatchback, thanks to products like the Spark and Sonic subcompacts and the Trax and Equinox crossovers. But, he acknowledged, “We do feel like we could use a car, especially in the low-MSRP range.” The comments follow similar recent comments from Tom Lynch, who chairs the Lincoln National Dealer Council. He told AN, “If weÂ’re not in segments where there is still a good amount of business, I think the company and the dealers lose out.” The Cruze was one of the victims of GMÂ’s November 2018 announcement of plant closures, with production having ceased with the closure of GMÂ’s Lordstown, Ohio assembly plant last year. GM sold 47,975 Cruzes in 2019 but a healthy 142,617 in 2018. At Lincoln, Lynch said the council has been telling the company it needs to stick with the sedan segment, despite plans to kill the MKZ sedan in the coming months and unconfirmed reports that the Continental isnÂ’t long for this world, either, despite the buzz of the suicide-door Coach Door Edition, shown in the photo above. Lincoln sold 17,725 MKZs and 6,586 Continental sedans in 2019, down a combined 15%, but still good for almost 22% of overall Lincoln sales. It's worth noting that Lincoln competes in a luxury segment that still expresses allegiance to four- and two-door cars. Even Cadillac, its cross-town rival, is staying active with the upcoming CT5 and CT4 sedans. Lynch pointed to Tesla as evidence that strong sedan products can resonate with consumers, though he conceded that “What that looks like for Lincoln going forward, IÂ’m not sure of.” For now, anyway, Chevy still offers the Sonic and Spark subcompacts, the latter of which saw sales climb 32.5% in 2019 to 31,281 (Sonic sales fell nearly as steeply).