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Frustrated GM investors ask what more Mary Barra can do

DETROIT — General Motors Co Chief Executive Mary Barra has transformed the No. 1 U.S. automaker in her almost five years in charge, but that is still not enough to satisfy investors. Ahead of third-quarter results due on Oct. 31, GM shares are trading about 6 percent below the $33 per share price at which they launched in 2010 in a post-bankruptcy initial public offering. The Detroit carmaker's stock is down 22 percent since Barra took over in January 2014. After hitting an all-time high of $46.48 on Oct. 24, 2017, the shares have declined 33 percent. In the same period, the Standard & Poor's 500 index has climbed 7.8 percent. Several shareholders contacted by Reuters said GM could face a third major action by activist shareholders in less than four years if the share price does not improve. "I've been expecting it," said John Levin, chairman of Levin Capital Strategies. "It just seems a tempting morsel to somebody." Levin's firm owns more than seven million GM shares. Barra has guided the company through the settlement of a federal criminal probe of a mishandled safety recall, sold off money-losing European operations, and returned $25 billion to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks from 2012 through 2017. GM declined to comment for this story, but the company's executives privately express frustration with the market's reluctance to see it as anything more than a manufacturer tied mainly to auto market sales cycles. GM's profitable North American truck and SUV business and its money-making China operations are valued at just $14 billion, excluding the value of GM's stake in its $14.6 billion Cruise automated vehicle business and its cash reserves from its $44 billion market capitalization. The recent slump in the Chinese market, GM's largest, and plateauing U.S. demand are ratcheting up the pressure. GM is one of the few global automakers without a founding family or a government to serve as a bulwark against corporate raiders. In 2015, a group led by investor Harry Wilson pressed GM to launch a $5 billion share buyback, and commit to what is now an $18 billion ceiling on the level of cash the company would hold. In 2017, GM fended off a call by hedge fund manager David Einhorn to split its common stock shares into two classes. Einhorn, whose firm still owned more than 21 million shares at the end of June, declined to comment about GM's stock price. Other investors said there were no clear alternatives to Barra's approach.

Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

GM to idle car production at five factories as Americans continue CUV love affair

In case you needed another reminder that Americans have fallen out of love with sedans, General Motors today announced plans to idle five factories in January in a bid to cut its inventory to 70 days. Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly ( Buick LaCrosse, Cadillac CT6, Chevrolet Volt and Impala) and Fairfax Assembly in Kansas ( Chevy Malibu) will stop production for three weeks. Lansing Grand River ( Cadillac ATS and CTS, and Chevy Camaro) is going down for two weeks, while Lordstown, OH ( Chevy Cruze) and Bowling Green, KY ( Chevy Corvette) will go idle for a week each, Automotive News reports. GM's shutdown reflects a broader problem with the company's supply – at 847,000 vehicles, the company's supply increased unsteadily from a low of 629,000 units in January of 2016. That's more than a 25 percent increase in the past year. Citing information from Autodata, The Detroit News reports that at the end of November, GM had a 168-day supply of LaCrosses, 177 days' worth of Camaro, 170 days of Corvette, 121 days for Cruze, 119 days for ATS, 132 days for CTS, and 110 days of CT6. Meanwhile, inventory of the company's more popular vehicles is actually below the professionally accepted 60- to 70-day supply, The News reports. The Trax, Colorado pickup, and GM's full-size SUVs are sitting below 50 days and experiencing year-over-year sales increases. GM needs a rethink of its inventory levels, which is something that's apparently coming. "We're going to be responsible in managing our inventory levels," GM spokesman Jim Cain told The News. Another unnamed spokesman told Automotive News the company's day-to-day supplies would "fluctuate before moderating at year-end." But at least one analyst thinks this won't be the last time Detroit needs to stop production to level things out. "Incentives are elevated, residuals are declining, and rates are rising," Brian Johnson, an analyst with Barclays, told The News. "And while GM in particular may benefit in the months ahead from new product launches, it's important to recognize that GM's inventory is elevated at the moment, and it wouldn't surprise us if they need to announce another production cut – which could pressure the stock." Related Video: News Source: The Detroit News, Automotive News - sub. req.Image Credit: Paul Sancya / AP Plants/Manufacturing Buick Cadillac Chevrolet GM GMC Crossover SUV Sedan bowling green cadillac xt6 fairfax