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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

VW, Rivian, Nissan, BMW, Genesis, Audi and Volvo lose EV tax credits starting tomorrow

The U.S. Treasury said Monday that Volkswagen, BMW, Nissan, Rivian, Hyundai and Volvo electric vehicles will lose access to a $7,500 tax credit under new battery sourcing rules. The Treasury said the new requirements effective Tuesday will also cut by half credits for the Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Rear Wheel Drive to $3,750 but other Tesla models will retain the full $7,500 credit. Vehicles losing credits Tuesday are the BMW 330e, BMW X5 xDrive45e, Genesis Electrified GV70, Nissan Leaf , Rivian R1S and R1T, Volkswagen ID.4 as well as the plug-in hybrid electric Audi Q5 TFSI e Quattro and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) electric Volvo S60. The Swedish carmaker is 82%-owned by China’s Zhejiang Geely Holding Group. The rules are aimed at weaning the United States off dependence on China for EV battery supply chains and are part of President Joe Biden's effort to make 50% of U.S. new vehicle sales by 2030 EVs or PHEVs. Hyundai said in a statement it was committed to its long-range EV plans and that it "will utilize key provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act to accelerate the transition to electrification." Rivian declined to comment and the other automakers could not immediately be reached for comment. Treasury also disclosed General Motors electric Chevrolet Bolt and Bolt EUV will qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit. GM said earlier it expected at least some of its EVS would qualify for the $7,500 tax credit under the new rules, including the 2023 Cadillac Lyriq and forthcoming Chevrolet Equinox EV SUV and Blazer EV SUV. Treasury said all GM EVs will qualify. Earlier, Ford Motor and Chrysler-parent Stellantis said most of their electric and PHEV models would see tax credits halved to $3,750 on April 18. Treasury confirmed the automakers' calculations. The rules were announced last month and mandated by Congress in August as part of the $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The IRA requires 50% of the value of battery components be produced or assembled in North America to qualify for $3,750, and 40% of the value of critical minerals sourced from the United States or a free trade partner for a $3,750 credit. The law required vehicles to be assembled in North America to qualify for any tax credits, which in August eliminated nearly 70% of eligible models and on Jan. 1 new price caps and limits on buyers income took effect.

Cadillac could base its entry-level sedan on the Chevy Cruze [UPDATE]

UPDATE: Cadillac spokesperson Donny Nordlicht tells Autoblog , "The post speculating on a future Cadillac model derived from the Chevrolet Cruze is completely false." Premium automakers Mercedes-Benz and Audi have seen plenty of success with new small front-drive-based sedans. The CLA-Class had its best January ever this year, while Audi moved more of its new A3 in 2015 than its predecessor sold in 2005 through 2010 combined. The fact that Cadillac wants a piece of that pie is no surprise, then. There's a new rumor that GM's luxury brand could launch its own compact – possibly called CT2 – to battle the Germans. Cadillac, a brand that's pushed hard to rebuild its rear-drive reputation, could develop a new entry-level model based on the front-wheel-drive 2016 Chevrolet Cruze's D2XX platform. Go ahead and make your Cimarron jokes. Sources are telling GM Inside News that a Cadillac built on the Delta platform would ditch the Cruze's turbocharged 1.4-liter four-cylinder for a 1.5-liter turbo in base models. General Motors' well received 2.0-liter turbo four would serve in higher-end models. According to GMIN, the Delta-based Cadillac would likely command a $6,000 to $9,000 premium over the Cruze, so figure $23,000 to $26,000 on the low end to $30,000 to $33,000 for something at the top of the range. As much as we dislike the kind of badge engineering that brought us the Cavalier-based Cadillac Cimarron in the '80s, the company has done an admirable job of distinguishing vehicles on shared platforms lately. A Delta-platform Cadillac would at least have a good basis – the new Cruze is surprisingly comfy. That said, we question GM's rationale if this rumor is indeed true. Put simply, Cadillac needs another sedan like I need another student loan payment. The company has four sedans, three of which overlap two segments, and none of which are selling very well. That's not because they're bad, but because customers want crossovers, of which Caddy has but one – the new XT5. Spending the time and money to add a fifth sedan to the mix when the company desperately needs to flesh out its CUV range would be a tremendous mistake. As much as we hate to say it, if Cadillac really wants to add a small, entry-level car to its range, it'd better be a crossover. Related Video: