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U.S. new-vehicle sales in 2018 rise slightly to 17.27 million [UPDATE]

DETROIT — Sales of new vehicles in the U.S. rose slightly in 2018, defying predictions and highlighting a strong economy. Automakers reported an increase of 0.3 percent over a year ago to 17.27 million vehicles. The increase came despite rising interest rates, a volatile stock market, and rising car and truck prices that pushed some buyers out of the new-vehicle market. Industry analysts and automakers said strong economic fundamentals pushed up sales and should keep them near historic highs in 2019. "Economic conditions in the U.S. are favorable and should continue to be supportive of vehicle sales at or around their current run rate," Ford Chief Economist Emily Kolinski Morris said after the company and other automakers announced their sales numbers Thursday. That auto sales remain near the 2016 record of 17.55 million is a testimonial to the strength of the economy, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. The job market, he said, has created new employment, and wage growth has accelerated. "That's fundamental to selling anything," he said. "If there are lots of jobs and people are getting bigger paychecks, they will buy more." The unemployment rate is 3.7 percent, a 49-year low. The economy is thought to have grown close to 3 percent last year, its best performance in more than a decade. Consumers, the main driver of the economy, are spending freely. The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate four times in 2018 but is only expected to raise it twice this year. Auto sales also were helped by low gasoline prices and rising home values, Zandi said. It all means that people are likely to keep buying new vehicles this year even as they grow more expensive. The Edmunds.com auto-pricing site estimates that the average new vehicle price hit a record $35,957 in December, about 2 percent higher than the previous year. It will be harder for automakers to keep the sales pace above 17 million because they have been enticing buyers for several years now with low-interest financing and other incentives, Zandi said. He predicts more deals in the coming year as job growth slows and credit tightens for higher-risk buyers. Edmunds, which provides content, including automotive tips and reviews, for distribution by The Associated Press, predicts that sales will drop this year to 16.9 million.

Even if GM does close all 5 of those plants, it'll still have too many

DETROIT — General Motors' monumental announcement on Monday that it will close three car assembly plants and two powertrain plants in North America and slash its workforce will only partially close the gap between capacity and demand for the automaker's sedans, according to a Reuters analysis of industry production and capacity data. Sales of traditional passenger cars in North America have been declining for the past six years and are still withering. After GM ends production next year at factories in Michigan, Ohio and Ontario, it will still have four U.S. passenger-car plants — all operating at less than 50 percent of rated capacity, according to figures supplied by LMC Automotive. In comparison, Detroit-based rivals Ford and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles will have one car plant each in North America after 2019. The Detroit Three are facing rapidly dwindling demand for traditional passenger cars from U.S. consumers, many of whom have shifted to crossovers and trucks. Passenger cars accounted for 48 percent of retail light-vehicle sales in the United States in 2014, according to market researchers at J.D. Power and Associates. This year, sedans will account for less than a third of light vehicle sales. That shift in turn has left most North American car plants operating far below their rated capacities, while many SUV and truck plants are running on overtime. The collapse in passenger-car demand is a challenge for nearly all automakers in the United States, including Japan's Toyota and Honda, which have the top-selling models in the compact and midsize car segments. Toyota executives said last month they are evaluating the company's U.S. model lineup. But Toyota also plans to build compact Corolla sedans at a new $1.6 billion factory it is building in Alabama with partner Mazda. The obstacles facing GM in its plans to close more auto factories became apparent on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to block payment of government electric vehicle subsidies to GM. While it is not certain that Trump unilaterally has the power to do that, he made it clear he intends to use his office to pressure the company to keep open a small car plant in Ohio that GM says will stop building vehicles in March.

Buick to kill Verano as early as 2017

The Buick Verano's days are allegedly numbered. Citing unnamed sources, Automotive News is reporting that Buick will kill its Delta-platform-based sedan. The company offered the typical "no comment." According to AN, Buick is expecting 70 percent of its sales to come from the Encore, Envision, and Enclave once the Envision goes on sale. And it doesn't take a professor of economics to recognize that when half the vehicles you build account for just 30 percent of the sales, it's time to trim. But the case for killing the Verano is a weird one, because the problem isn't a lack of demand. Struggling sales might be the reason to kill a car, but the Verano is – and has consistently been – Buick's second best-selling sedan. It's beaten the slightly larger, more expensive Regal by at least 12,000 units in each of the last four years. Hell, in 2013, Buick sold 45,000 Veranos to fewer than 19,000 Regals. So why not kill the Regal? Well, the Verano's raison d'etre is irrelevant today. Buick launched its smallest sedan at a time when premium compact four-doors weren't a thing and gas prices were high enough that consumers were still hesitant to tie themselves to a CUV's fuel bill. And while it was roughly the same size as the Chevrolet Cruze that it shared GM's Delta platform with, it had enough unique equipment to stand apart and warrant its price premium. Today, fuel prices are cheap and consumers are flocking to crossovers while Buick is stuck sharing the premium compact pie with much more prestigious names ( Mercedes-Benz and Audi). And because it's sharing showroom space with the super-popular Encore, even the Verano's affordable pricing has become a liability. Today, a lightly equipped Verano is the same price as a base Encore, and they offer broadly similar features (rear-view cameras, a seven-inch touchscreen with Intellilink, Bluetooth, etc.). And if the Encore is too small, there's probably a GMC Terrain sitting in the same showroom, offering more utility and equal equipment to the Verano for a similar price. As one dealer told AN, "For not much more money, customers can get an SUV." Killing the Verano might risk 30,000 to 40,000 sales, but it's a move that proves Buick has tremendous confidence in its CUV lineup – clearly the company thinks the Encore can do the job of luring customers into showrooms. AN's sources claim the Verano will survive through 2017, so we'll be waiting a few years to find out if that faith is misplaced. Related Video: